Sizing up the NFC championship game between the New York Giants (11-7) and San Francisco 49ers (14-3) at Candlestick Park. Here's a look at the AFC.
The Storyline
No one expected these teams to be the last two standing in the NFC. The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints were the two powerhouse teams that appeared on a collision course for the title, but the Giants and 49ers had other ideas. Now they play with the winner moving on to the Super Bowl.
The Xs and Os
Eli Manning is playing superbly, completing 68 percent of his passes in his two playoff wins of the year, with six touchdowns and just one interception. In Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, he has three receivers capable of making the big play anytime they touch the football. For the 49ers defense, the key will be eliminating those big plays, the 50 and 60-yard back-breakers that the Giants hit against both Atlanta and Green Bay the last two weeks. The Saints' Drew Brees already exposed some major holes in the 49ers secondary in the divisional round.
Alex Smith played the best game of his career in Sundays win over New Orleans, but this week the running game will be key for the 49ers. They need Frank Gore to pound the rock to keep the offense out of third-and-long situations, because that is where the Giants tee off. In the last four games, the Giant defense has 13 sacks, four interceptions and four forced fumbles. If Gore can grind out the tough yards on first and second down and move the chains now and then, it will make life easierand safer -- for Smith.
Key Matchup
NFL
Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks against 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers. The Giants are not going to have success running the ball in this game. The 49er run defense was the best in the NFL during the season (77 yards per game), so the offense will be Eli throwing the ball, and right now Nicks is almost unstoppable. In the two playoff wins, Nicks had 13 catches for 280 yards (a 21.5 average) and four touchdowns. Rogers, the former Redskin, will be the defender assigned to slow him down.
Best Quote
49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh: There is just a wicked fight in this team.
Prediction
Whichever team wins the turnover battle will win the game. Hows that for a prediction? Unsatisfying, I know, but it is true. Turnovers were the key to each teams victory in the divisional round. The 49ers forced five turnovers against the Saints and the Giants forced four against the Packers.
With two fast and physical defenses, there is no reason to believe this game will be any different. There will be lots of hard hits and defenders ripping at the football, and if it really is a rainy day as predicted, that will add to the turnover factor. With that in mind, Ill go with the team that turned the ball over the fewest times this season and thats the 49ers.
49ers 23, Giants 20.
E-mail Ray Didinger at viewfromthehall@comcast.net