Didinger: Possible destinations for Peyton

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As Eli Manning brushes the Super Bowl confetti from his hair, big brother Peyton warily approaches a career crossroads.

The question isnt where will Peyton Manning play next season? The question is will he be playing at all? Recent reports that Manning had four neck surgeries last yearone more than previously reportedincreased doubts about his football future.

There has been so much conflicting information on Manninghis health, his recovery, his state of mindit is hard to know exactly what to believe. Some reports say his arm strength is improving and he is on track to play again this season. Other reports claim he is not even close.

One thing does appear certain: Manning has played his final game for the Indianapolis Colts. If he does play football again, it will be in another city and he will be wearing a different uniform. The relationship between Manning and the Colts has so soured that a divorce is inevitable.

We have seen this before. We saw it with Joe Montana in San Francisco, Johnny Unitas in Baltimore, Joe Namath in New York and Brett Favre in Green Bay. All great quarterbacks, all won NFL championships and all determined to keep playing when the team felt it was time for a change.

It has reached that point with Manning, the only four-time MVP in NFL history. He will turn 36 next month, but he wants to keep playing. He has spent his entire career in Indianapolis, but he realizes it is time to move on. The Colts are cleaning house. They have changed general managers and changed head coaches. They are preparing to select Stanfords Andrew Luck with the first pick in the April draft.

It is a new day in Indianapolis and Manning, for all of his accomplishments, doesnt fit anymore. He knows it so he is considering his options.

Anyone who knows Manning knows he will not just sit back and watch this play out. He will direct this process the same way he directs traffic at the line of scrimmage, scanning the field and calling the shots.

This will be the most talked-about free agent tour since Reggie White left the Eagles and hit the open market in 1993. It will begin next month when the Colts must pay Manning a 28 million roster bonus or release him. The deadline is March 8 and while there is language in the contract that suggests the date could be pushed back, no one expects that to happen.

So Manning, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, will be a free agent. Where will he go? What sort of contract will he sign? How long will it take?

The second part is the easiest to answer. Manning will almost certainly have to accept a contract built on incentives, that is, a contract tiered to pay him according to how many games he plays and so forth. Given the medical risk involved, thats the only kind of deal that makes sense.

It could take awhile because Manning will have to prove to the other teams that he is worth signing. That means he will have to work out for them so he has to build up his arm strength to the point where he can make all the throws. (Even the most optimistic reports on Mannings rehab indicate he is not there yet).

What teams would be interested and which ones make the most sense?

Miami and Washington are the teams most often mentioned. There is a groundswell in New York among Jets fans, tired of playing little brother to the Giants, that their team should sign Manning and sit Mark Sanchez on the bench. Arizona is in the conversation as well.

Here is my best guess on the Manning market:

1. WashingtonI think the Redskins are the favorites. Their quarterbacks stink and coach Mike Shanahan knows another losing season will cost him his job. Owner Dan Snyder is not shy about spending money and he is tired of finishing last in the NFC East (four years in a row, five of the last six). Some think Peyton wont sign in the NFC East because he would not want to go head to head with Eli twice a year. I think just the opposite; I think he would relish it. The big drawback: The Redskins need to improve their receiving corps, big time.

2. MiamiOwner Stephen Ross needs an attraction to sell tickets and he likes to surround himself with stars. His minority partners include Marc Anthony, Gloria Estefan and Serena Williams. Manning would give the Dolphins a real quarterback for the first time since Dan Marino retired in 1999, but I think new coach Joe Philbin will push hard for the team to sign Matt Flynn, who Philbin groomed as Aaron Rodgers backup with the Packers.

3. ArizonaThe Cardinals were 8-8 last season, splitting the quarterback duties between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton. They have some young talent and a great receiver in Larry Fitzgerald. Remember what happened the last time they signed a veteran quarterback? Kurt Warner took them to the Super Bowl and almost won it. The trouble is the Cardinals are on the hook for a lot of money with Kolb (six years, 65 million) so they would have to move him to sign Manning. It would be hard to do.

4. San FranciscoAdding a healthy Peyton Manning to the 49ers roster with that defense would be a coup, but coach Jim Harbaugh says Alex Smith is his quarterback so Ill believe him (for now).

5. SeattleA sleeper. The Seahawks arent bad, but they are going nowhere with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. I wouldnt be surprised if the Seahawks inquired, but Manning will probably see other destinations as more desirable.

6. EaglesI just threw this one in to see if you were paying attention. Would I pursue Peyton Manning if I was convinced he could still play? You bet I would. Do I think the Eagles will do it? Not a chance.

E-mail Ray Didinger at viewfromthehall@comcast.net.

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