Friday, February 25, 2011
Posted: 10 a.m.
By Sean Kane
CSNPhilly.com Contributor
Time is running out in February, and an all too familiar feeling is sinking in for Villanova fans. Last year, the Wildcats dropped six of their last nine games, including a second round loss to St. Mary's in the NCAA Tournament. Twelve months later, here we are again. Jay Wright's team is 5-6 in its last 11 games and is losing some serious traction as March Madness approaches. It all begs the question: Is it panic time for 'Nova Nation?
3 Reasons to panic:
1. The remaining schedule
Villanova has three regular season games left: at home against No. 23 St. John's, and on the road at No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 4 Pittsburgh.
St. John's has gone from a preseason afterthought to nationally ranked in Steve Lavin's first year in the Big Apple.
The Red Storm are deep, experienced and talented. Lavin has nine seniors on his roster, led by Big East Player of the Year candidate Dwight Hardy. The 6-2 dynamo averages 17.3 points per game and takes all the big shots for St. John's, including the game-winner against Pitt last weekend. Lavin has the No. 3 recruiting class in the country signed on for next season, so expect the Red Storm to become a fixture in the top half of the conference standings. But all that matters for Villanova is the here-and-now. St. John's comes to town Saturday with wins in seven of its last eight games, including victories over Duke, UConn and Pitt.
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Things don't get any easier next week. Notre Dame and Pitt are a combined 31-2 at home, and one of those losses is a Notre Dame win at Pitt. Both teams' rosters are loaded with all-conference talent, including two more Conference Player of the Year candidates in Notre Dame's Ben Hansbrough and Pitt's Ashton Gibbs. Villanova's visit to each campus falls on their respective senior nights, so expect the proceedings to be even more raucous than normal in South Bend and Western Pennsylvania.
2. Inconsistency from the 'Big 3'
Villanova's three top scorers are Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns. All three are more than capable of carrying the Wildcats on any given night. The problem has been getting the trio on the same page. When one has a big game, the other two invariably falter. Case in point: Monday against Syracuse. Stokes returned from missing three games with a toe injury to score a game-high 24 points. Meanwhile, Fisher and Wayns combine to go 4-for-25 from the field. In fairness to Wayns, he played the second half with back spasms after being fouled hard driving to the basket.
But dating back to before Stokes was sidelined, the same theme persisted. The only conference game when Fisher, Stokes and Wayns were all productive was the Wildcats' most impressive win of the seasonan 83-72 win over then No. 3 Syracuse in which the trio combined for 53 points. No one is suggesting they need to combine for that total in every game the rest of the way, but they need to come close. If one or more of the 'Big 3' is off target, Villanova struggles mightily to score.
3. Spotty bench production
Coming into the season, Wright knew his rotation would not be as deep as it was a year ago. But he needs more from his bench than he's been getting. It's hard to include Wayns as a member of the bench. Wright removed him from the starting lineup for a handful of games in favor of sophomore Isaiah Armwood before re-inserting him following Stokes' injury.
For the better part of the season, the Villanova bench has consisted of Dominic Cheek, Armwood, Maurice Sutton and James Bell. Cheek has struggled in his sophomore season, shooting 35 percent from the field and 28 percent from three-point range. Cheek is a solid perimeter defender and his effort can't be questioned, but his offensive numbers leave something to be desiredhe hasn't cracked double figures in his last 14 games.
Armwood is an above average rebounder and defender, but the bulk of his offensive contribution comes from tip-ins and put-backs.
Outside of an energetic 15 minutes at Syracuse, Sutton has largely been a non-factor in conference play. He did not dress Monday at home against Syracuse after missing curfew the previous night.
Bell meanwhile, has been a pleasant surprise. He's struggled lately with consistency, as freshmen tend to do in the Big East. But without Bell's 21 points in a three-point win at Seton Hall last week, the Wildcats current state would be far more dire.
3 Reasons not to panic:
1. A wide open NCAA tournament
The first edition of the 68-team NCAA Tournament promises to be even more unpredictable than usual. There are plenty of good teams across the country, but no great ones. Witness last weekend, when the top four teams in the county all lost, vaulting Duke from No. 5 to No. 1 in the polls. It's fair to say that up to 15 teams enter March with legitimate national championship aspirations. Throw in another five to seven teams that could make a serious run to the Final Four. Would anyone argue against No. 23 St. John's having what it takes to advance to college basketball's final weekend?
What does all this mean for Villanova?
The Wildcats figure to be seeded anywhere from fourth to sixth in the NCAA Tournament. If Wright and company can regain their footing in the next two weeks, there's no reason to think they can't make another deep run into March. Villanova is not lacking in the talent department when stacked up among the country's top teams. Which leads us to the second point on this list...
2. Guard play
The NCAA tournament (and Big East tournament for that matter) has always been about guard play. And, as usual under Wright, the Wildcats' strength lies in their backcourt. As mentioned above, Villanova will go as far as the trio of Fisher, Stokes and Wayns takes them. You'll be hard pressed to find another team with two penetrating guards the caliber of Fisher and Wayns. Each gets to the basket at will, creating easy scoring opportunities for themselves and the Villanova big men. When Fisher and Wayns are making jump shots, they're all but unguardable.
Then there's Stokes, one of the elite shooters in the country. He's the perfect complement to two drive-first guards. Stokes is able to spot up and wait for kick-outs. Conversely, his mere presence on the floor opens driving lanes up for Fisher and Wayns. When Stokes was injured, opposing teams simply packed in their defense and dared Villanova to win with jumpers. Fisher and Wayns have far fewer opportunities to get to the basket when Stokes is on the bench.
Wayns, Fisher and Stokes are each extremely gifted scorers. You have to figure they'll get on the same page before the season's out, don't you? Time will tell, but Villanova will be awfully tough to beat if they do. If the Wildcats get a late lead, they're almost impossible to beat with Fisher, Stokes and Wayns handling the ball and taking the majority of the foul shots down the stretch (there are exceptions of course, see the loss at Rutgers).
3. Defense and rebounding
While the offense has come and gone over the course of the season, defense and rebounding have been the constants. Villanova is second in the Big East in opponents three-point field-goal percentage (29.6), third in opponents field-goal percentage (39.7), and fourth in scoring defense (64.1). The Wildcats also rank second in the conference in rebounding margin (plus-6.1).
These statistical categories are more about desire than skill, so credit Wright and his players for making it a point to improve across the board from last season. Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou have led the way on the glass, but it's been a team effort defensively. Defense and rebounding never go into slumps, a comforting notion heading into March.
E-mail Sean Kane at skane@comcastsportsnet.com