Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Posted: 11:59 a.m.
By Sean KaneCSNPhilly.com Contributor
Jay Wright insists things are just fine. Nothing to see here, just ironing out a few kinks. Despite the grim circumstances surrounding Villanova, the head coach is doing his part to put a positive spin on what lies ahead. Because, ready or not, it's tournament time.
And Wright says, just like any other year, his team is relishing the opportunity.
The final month of the college basketball season is upon us, with this week's conference tournaments leading up to the NCAA Tournament that begins next week. Teams from across the country control their own destinies. Whether they've won five regular season games or 25, they have a shot at being the last team standing on April 4 in Houston's Reliant Stadium. It's a premise that separates college basketball from all other sports, and one that makes the next four weeks so special.
So how does Villanova fit into all of this? Its tough to say. On paper, it seems obvious the Wildcats are heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time. They're 5-9 in their last 14 games, dropping their last four by an average of more than 12 points to fall out of the Top 25 for the first time this season.
To make matters worse, Villanova's two best players have been hampered by injuries. So are the Wildcats are a dead team walking? Is it just a matter of time before they're put out of their misery?
Not so fast.
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The Wildcats have the talent to regroup and salvage what's left of their season, but it won't be easy. That task begins Tuesday night in the first round of the Big East Tournament against South Florida at Madison Square Garden.
To win the conference tournament, Villanova will have to win five games in five days. Don't count on that, but winning a couple games would do wonders for a team lacking badly in the confidence department. The last thing Wright needs is his team entering the NCAA Tournament not having won a game in nearly a month (the Wildcats' last win was on Feb. 19 in overtime at DePaul).
History hasn't been kind to Villanova under Wright at the Big East Tournament. The Wildcats havent made it past the semifinals during his 10-year tenure. They've won multiple games in the tournament just once on Wright's watchin 2004, when they upset Seton Hall and Providence before falling to eventual national champion UConn in the semifinals.
Here are some things to keep your eye on this week, both from Villanova and the rest of the formidable field gathered in New York City.
1. Getting back to playing 'Villanova Basketball'
Anyone who has stuck a microphone or tape recorder in front of Wright or any of his players the past five years has become familiar with the phrase Villanova basketball. The coach and his team use it to describe the style of play they want to embodytough, gritty, smart and most importantly, playing together. Those ingredients have been missing the past month.
These days the Wildcats look more like five individual parts than a collective unit. All of Wright's teams that have made deep runs in March have had guys like Will Sheridan and Dwayne Anderson, players whose stats won't overwhelm you but who made all the winning plays when they were needed most. Those winning playsdiving for a loose ball, taking a charge, denying a post entry passhaven't been made as often as Wright would like this season.
That also plays into the tough and gritty part of the equation. There are all kinds of ways to measure toughness in basketball, some more effective than others. The most common indicators include rebounding, getting to the foul line and defending the perimeter. Consider these numbers from Villanova's last three losses: the Wildcats were out-rebounded by an average of more than seven per game (for a team that finished fourth in the Big East in rebounding margin). Villanova took 37 fewer free throws than their opponents (79-42). The Wildcats actually took 19 fewer free throws than their opponents made over that span. And finally, their opponents shot an astounding 52.3 percent from three-point range.
2. Villanova's health
There have been more than a few theories on why Villanova ended the regular season in a tailspin for the second straight season. Not enough talent, a brutal Big East schedule taking its toll, Wright not pressing the right buttons, you name it. Each may be true to varying degrees, but they all take a backseat to this: the Wildcats aren't healthy. And they haven't been for the past month.
The injury bug zeroed in on the two players Villanova could least afford to lose. Corey Stokes missed four of the final seven regular-season games with toe and hamstring injuries. He'll be a game-time decision Tuesday against South Florida after re-aggravating his hamstring late last week. The injury held him out of Saturday's loss at Pitt.
Both Stokes and Wright agree that he won't play if he's not 100 percent, a reasonable assessment given Stokes plans to earn a living playing basketball for the next handful of years. But there's no disputing the Wildcats are an entirely different team without him on the floor. He's their only reliable threat from the perimeter, shooting 43.2 percent from three-point range on the season (Corey Fisher is second at 33.3 percent). Villanova becomes one dimensional when Stokes is sidelined, relying too much on Fisher and Maalik Wayns driving to the basket. Defenses can pack it in, playing zone or a sagging man-to-man.
Then there's Fisher, who hasn't missed any games but has been playing through knee tendinitis for the past month. An MRI last week didn't reveal any structural damage, but it's clear the injury has hampered Fisher's game. He's shooting 26 percent from the field the last four games and is just 4-for-32 from three-point territory.
Few players get to the basket as efficiently as Fisher. He's been one of the best dribble penetrators in the country the past four years, possessing the uncanny knack of creating contact in the lane and getting to the foul line. Yet he's taken just eight free throws the past four games. Fisher has turned into a jump shooter, choosing to pull up rather than take the ball to the basket. His knee injury is the only reasonable explanation for that.
There is the line of thinking that Wright should rest Fisher and Stokes this week in a last-ditch effort to get his two top guns healthy for the NCAA Tournament. Sound logic, considering each would have at least 12 days to heal before the first round begins on March 17. But at this point, confidence and psyche take precedence. Without Fisher and Stokes, Villanova would lose to South Florida Tuesday night. Losing to a 9-22 team in the first round of the conference tournament on top of dropping your last four regular-season games is hardly the way you'd like to march into the Field of 68.
The Wildcats need wins badly. If they get past South Florida they would get Cincinnati on Wednesday in the second round. The Bearcats have closed strong, winning five of their last six games including two victories over No. 22 Georgetown and one against No. 14 Louisville. But even with that said, Cincinnati on a neutral floor is certainly winnable game for Villanova.
Keep in mind the Wildcats beat South Florida and Cincinnati by double-digits in the regular season. However those games were on Jan. 6 and Jan. 9, respectively. That's an eternity ago, considering the way the Big East portion of the schedule unfolded for Villanova.
3. Who's the team to beat in the Garden?
In a conference that will send 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament, it's tough to count anybody out this week. With apologies to No. 14 Louisville and No. 11 Syracuse, it's shaping up to be a three-horse race. First, the favorites: No. 3 Pittsburgh and No. 4 Notre Dame, teams with opposite styles that prove to be equally effective.
As much as head coach Jamie Dixon wants to differentiate his team from Pitt teams of the past, these Panthers stick with the time-tested formula of rebounding and defense. Pitt has plenty of capable scorers in Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown. But Pitt makes its bones on the glass and on the defensive end, leading the Big East with a plus-11 rebounding margin (six boards more than the team that was second in that category) and finishing second in scoring defense (60.5).
Notre Dame meanwhile beats you with its offense. The Fighting Irish ranked third in the Big East in scoring offense (75.5) and led the conference in three-point shooting (39.2 percent). You'll be hard pressed to find two better pure shooters on the same team as Ben Hansbrough (45.1 3FG percent) and Tim Abromaitis (41.9 3FG percent). Both Pitt and Notre Dame have plenty to play for this week. If either team wins the conference tournament, theyll get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Then there's the most intriguing team in the 16-team field: No. 17 St. John's. For the first time in a decade, the host city has a horse in the race at the Big East Tournament. The Red Storm opens up play on Wednesday against either Seton Hall or Rutgers. It should be fascinating to watch the crowd at Madison Square Garden get behind Steve Lavin's team. New York City has been starving for relevant college basketball for some time, now they get the opportunity to show their appreciation in front of a national audience.
A boisterous home crowd won't be the only thing St. John's has going for it. Five of the Red Storm's six top scorers are seniors who would love nothing more than going out with a Big East Tournament championship. E-mail Sean Kane at skane@comcastsportsnet.com