18.3 Chance of Redemption: Scratching Out the Lottery Ticket for the Sixers' Future

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When you get down to it, actually, I'm a lot more excited about being a Sixers fan tonight than I was at this point last year. Sure, we made the playoffs in '09, and somehow managed to win two games against the Finals-bound Magic. But by the time of the conference finals, the team had gotten resoundingly bounced, and it was pretty clear that both our bench and floor coach (DiLeo/Miller) were on their way out.

This year however, despite not even making the playoffs, we have the most exciting night of the season still to come--the draft lottery, where there's an 18.3% of us landing a draft pick that could possibly change our franchise fortunes for the exponentially better. Is it going to happen? Probably not. Is it worth dissecting the remote possibility of happening in the hopes of actually entering the upcoming NBA season with a modicum of non-despair? Absolutely.

Essentially, there are six picks that the Sixers could come out of tonight's lottery with--#1 through #3, and #6-#8. (There's a possibility they could end up with the #9 pick, if three teams with lesser odds than they end up in the top three, but the chances of that happening are like...not good.) So let's break down the casting likelihood should they end up with any of those picks.

#1 Pick (5.3% Odds)--John Wall, PG Kentucky

Like I'm telling you anything you don't know here. You've been hearing about John Wall's greatness since before the '09-'10 NCAA season started, and though he didn't exactly have the season that dreams are made of at Kentucky, he showed enough long-term promise and short-term ability to reinforce his status as the consensus #1 pick. His shooting, playmaking and leadership skills seem across-the-board solid, but what smacks you over the head with Wall is his athleticism. His end-to-end speed and first-move quickness are both so lightning-quick that he makes even current NBA waterbug ones like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook look Derek Fisher-lethargic by comparison, and combined with his strength and NBA-ready body, he could theoretically become to the point guard position what LeBron James is to the wing and Dwight Howard to the low-post. He might not be a can't-miss, but he's definitely a can't-pass-up.

The timing of this, of course, is somewhat unfortunate for the Sixers, considering that point guard is the one position where they actual seem to be set for the foreseeable future in terms of cheap, young, high-upside talent, with '09 draft pick Jrue Holiday. It's possible that drafting Wall and moving Holiday to the two might be a thought--both are listed at 6'4", decent size for a one, though at least one and probably both of those numbers is a lie--but likely, the drafting of Wall would mean the attempted packaging of Holiday with a bad contract or two in order to clear cap space and/or cut costs. Which is a shame, since we've all come to be rather fond of The Damaja over the last season, but there's little doubt that within five games of watching John Wall throw (and finish!!) alley-oops with Andre Iguodala, I'd be repeatedly titling posts "Jrue Who?"

#2 Pick (6.0%)--Evan Turner, PG/SG/SF Ohio State

Another can't-pass-up point guard, but one that might actually shake up the Sixers roster a little less than drafting Wall would. Turner captured the Player of the Year mantle from Wall with his triple-double-laden Ohio State season, and a deep NCAA Tournament run might have even saw him challenge
for top pick status. The Great Wall of Kentucky has size, sure, but at 6'7" with giraffe arms, Evan Turner has scouts thinking Magic Johnson. In fact, many see him as more of a wing than a point, while others see him being able to fit just about anywhere a team has holes in their lineup.

How he would fit in as a Sixer is a more interesting question. With a different body and slightly different skill set than Holiday, it'd be much easier to see the team draft Turner and still hold on to Jrue, but his outside shooting isn't convincing enough for him to be projected as a natural two. Chad Ford of ESPN sees him creating a bit of a logjam at the three position for the Sixers with Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young, though he points out that such a draft choice might actually end up precipitating the long-dormant 'Dre trade scenario--which opens a whole new can of worms, but also might be something the Sixers need to consider.

#3 Pick (7.0% Odds)--Derrick Favors, PF Georgia Tech

To be honest, this is the pick that I'm sort of hoping for. Favors isn't nearly the sure thing that Wall and Turner are, and it's not like he wouldn't cause any lineup issues on the Sixers as well, but in terms of team need and likelihood of acquisition, he might be our best bet. Favors is an athletic, 6'9" post guy who supposedly runs the floor and finishes well, rebounds effectively and even is beginning to extend out his range a little. I say "supposedly" because we didn't actually get to see him do much of it at Tech last year--with notoriously poor guard play and an overlapping big in fellow prospect Gani Lawal, his opportunities to prove his worth were limited, and he only showed his true ability in too-rarely-seen flashes.

Nonetheless, athletic big...finishes well...rebounds effectively...uh, yes, one please. With a core of Holiday, Iguodala and Favors, this team could finally have skilled, high-IQ guys at all three levels to execute the open-floor game the Sixers have tried to run for almost a half-decade now. The main hesitation here would be that drafting a potential franchise guy at power forward would be tantamount to GM Ed Stefanski admitting that the Elton Brand signing was a mistake and that Marreese Speights probably won't amount to much. But as someone who's watched nearly every game this team has played the last two seasons, let me be the first to say--the Elton Brand signing was a mistake, and Marreese Speights probably won't amount to much. Admitting as much and cutting his losses would go a long way towards Stefanski helping to clean up the mess he's helped make with this franchise.

#6-8 Pick--Cole Aldrich, Kansas C, Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest PF, Greg Monroe, Georgetown PF, Ed Davis, UNC C

After the top three, which are more-or-less agreed upon across the board (some big boards might have Favors gong above Turner, or a sleeper going ahead of Favors, but that's pretty much the consensus), things get a little fuzzier. I'm assuming that picks #4 and #5 will be Kentucky C DeMarcus Cousins and Syracuse SF Wesley Johnson in some order, so unless something happens to hurt their stock, I'm going to assume they're not going to be available. (Which is a shame, because both picks were highly intriguing, and there seems to be something of a talent drop-off after that).

Who the Sixers would take after the top five are off the board is a matter of great debate. Of the four listed above, Aldrich is probably the safest choice, and Monroe the most intriguing. There's little doubt what Philly would be getting with Aldrich--an heir to Samuel Dalembert at center, and one who is fundamentally sound in all the ways (rebounding, shot-blocking, help defending, knowing his place on O) that Dalembert refused to be consistently over the year. But for a top pick, his ceiling is a little low, as he doesn't possess an extraordinary offensive game and his height (6'11"--dominant for college, but somewhat undersized for a pro pivot) could end up making for problematic matchups. Nonetheless, Aldrich is the Ford pick for who the Sixers would likely choose, were they to catch the #6 pick they appear slated for.

Monroe is possibly the sexier pick due to his reported high basketball IQ and passing ability--rare skills for a big man, and skills that the Sixers post guys, uh, have been somewhat lacking in of late. (I say reported because the few Georgetown games I saw last season all ended up being dominated by swingman Austin Freeman--damnation). He lacks the athletic upside of a couple of the other draft PFs, and some question his defensive tenacity a little, but an upgrade in size and smarts on our front lines would obviously make for highly-appreciated contributions. If nothing else, he's my dad's pick for who the Sixers should take this year, and I tend to trust his instincts over the scouts' at least seven or eight times out of ten.

Aminu and Davis...let's just say I'm hoping there are still some previously-mentioned names still on the board besides theses two when it comes drafting time. It's that infamous Raw Untapped Potential with both--athletic and explosive, but unrefined and inconsistent. Aminu did do some good things in a less-than-ideal at Wake over the course of the last year, but Davis was underwhelming at UNC and then checked out halfway through with a wrist injury. Both are largely unproven and have their share of flags, and although you could have said the same thing
about Jrue Holiday at this point last year, I would love to not have to resort to taking a risk on one of 'em this time around.

Before I leave to say a few key prayers and dispatch the rest of you to start rubbing the heads of all the bald people you know, I'd like to give a good-karma shoutout to the five teams that I hope get to land John Wall if we don't:

1. Washington Wizards. Last year they were supposed to rebound from a dismal season to something close to contention, instead they had a year so internally and externally f'd up that even the Isiah Thomas Knicks would have clucked their tongues in pity and disappointment. Wall + Arenas...I'd buy tickets.

2. Golden State Warriors. Speaking of Wall + Arenas, Wall + Curry? I Believe.

3. Indiana Pacers. The Pacers basically screwed themselves out of the Wall sweepstakes with a well-intentioned but poorly-timed late-season hot streak. But Indiana basketball is worth reviving, and a luck-out like Wall seems like their only shot (this year, at least--they may have a couple lotteries in this range still to come in the immediate future) doing so.

4. New Jersey Nets / Los Angeles Clippers. Two perennially sad-sack franchises with a high upcoming pick and a whole lotta cap space. I mostly group them together because this #4 is conditional on them NOT landing LeBron in free agency--these two guys on the same team, you might end up having to fold the NBA for a decade or so.

5. Memphis Grizzlies. Wall/Mayo/Gay/Randolph/Gasol. Ladies and gentlemen, your bandwagon team of the 2010-'11 season.

Fingers-and-toes-crossed-time. See you guys on the other side.

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