5 statistics that should (but won’t) end Eagles quarterback debate

5 statistics that should (but won’t) end Eagles quarterback debate

The trendy stat of the day for Michael Vick supporters, Nick Foles detractors, and fence-sitters everywhere: opponents’ record. The opponents in games Vick has started and “finished” (technically he was pulled from the Denver game, but the result was not in question) are 15-7. The record of the two teams Foles has beaten is 0-11.

To which I beg, “STOP!!!” Please, stop it. Never mind the Tampa Bay Bucs had a top 10 defense entering Week 6. That’s not really the point, is it?

I doubt anybody believes these two wins suddenly anoint Nick Foles a franchise quarterback, that they serve as any indication he’ll lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl someday. On the contrary, it doesn’t prove anything about his future at all. We’re talking about right now, who looks like the best quarterback on the roster?

The answer is less about Foles than it is about Vick. Doesn’t the offense just run more smoothly without Vick in the game? Not literally running the football obviously—Vick has 307 yards on the ground himself after all—but are they not more efficient overall? Because the numbers indicate that is indeed the case.

One person in the media explained to me that Vick adds another dimension to the offense, and I actually agree—if that dimension is negative plays and missed opportunities. There’s fewer of each when Foles is under center.

I’m quite certain that wasn’t what that person meant. Regardless, it’s the truth. For just about any measure of efficiency we have, Foles is going to chart as far superior, or at least close. And as a reminder, we’re talking about a second-year pro with seven career starts versus an 11-year veteran with 107 starts. One of these two players actually has a chance to improve.

Basic measures of passer efficiency

These numbers came up yesterday, so I won’t spend too much time harping on them, but they bear repeating.

Foles is completing 67.2 percent of his passes this season, Vick 53.8. To put that in simple terms everybody can quantify, if both quarterbacks drop back 30 times, Vick is completing 16 to Foles’ 20. That’s not an insignificant number. Those four incomplete passes might be the difference between keeping four separate drives alive.

This is not something that has ever or will ever be Vick’s strong suit. The four-time Pro Bowler has completed 59.4 percent since coming to Philly. Earlier this season, he admitted he would like to be at 60. As it stands now, Vick is ranked 32nd out of 35 quarterbacks in completion percentage, but even at 60.0 he would only be 18th. That’s not ideal.

Rounding out the efficiency side of things is passer rating, which is the formula that measures the efficiency of passes attempted taking into account completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Vick is 13th with a 90.6—not bad by any means—but Foles’ 127.9 would rank second behind only Peyton Manning if he had the snaps to qualify.

Scoring/red zone efficiency

We all understand there are ways to massage statistics to build a case for one player over another. Completion percentage and passer rating admittedly don’t take into account Vick’s production as a ball carrier.

Fine, but what could be purer than the number of points an offense puts on the scoreboard under a particular signal-caller?

With three touchdown passes and one on the ground, Foles’ four touchdowns against Tampa Bay were more than the Eagles posted over the previous three games combined under Vick. (If the argument here is quality of opponents, I guess the implication is Vick is not expected to lead scoring drives against good teams?) If you look at the bodies of work over the entire 2013 season, Philadelphia reached the end zone 11 times in roughly 17 quarters with Vick under center compared to seven times in seven quarters with Foles.

Where the difference becomes even more readily apparent though is inside the red zone. CSN’s Reuben Frank wrote an excellent piece on this very subject last week that detailed how Foles has been more productive once the field shrinks—albeit in a limited sample size.

Over the past two years, Vick is 26 for 65 in the red zone for 195 yards with 10 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 74.7 passer rating.

Foles during the same span is 15 for 36 for 91 yards with six TDs, no interceptions and an 88.9 passer rating.

If I may update Roob’s findings, Foles is now 18 for 40 117 yards with eight TDs, no interceptions and a 91.7 passer rating. In 2013, the Eagles are 5 for 14 (35.7%) in the red zone under Vick, 4 for 7 (57.1%) under Foles.

And much like Vick’s low completion percentage, there is history here. In his 28 starts going back to 2011, Vick has committed 12 turnovers in the red zone. How many games does that figure alone cost the Eagles? In what world is that ever acceptable?

Sack %

People typically mean two things when they say Vick adds another dimension. The first one obviously is the threat of No. 7 running with the football.

Well just as completion percentage and passer rating don’t measure rushing yards, neither one measures sacks either, an area where Vick has routinely ranked among the league leaders. The 11-year veteran’s career sack percentage—8.65 percent of all dropbacks—leads all current NFL starters, and only David Carr’s for the Giants is worse among active players.

And if you think all sacks are entirely the fault of the offensive line, consider Vick is the league leader at time holding the ball in the pocket—3.4 seconds on average—according to the metrics site Pro Football Focus. Still, don’t take my word for it. Here’s what Football Outsiders Almanac writes in its introductory chapter every year.

As for pass protection, some quarterbacks have better instincts for the rush than others, and are thus better at getting out of trouble by moving around in the pocket or throwing the ball away. Others will hesitate, hold onto the ball too long, and lose yardage over and over.

Note that “moving around in the pocket” does not necessarily mean “scrambling.” In fact, a scrambling quarterback will often take more sacks than a pocket quarterback, because while he’s running around trying to make something happen, a defensive lineman will catch up with him.

So this season, take Vick’s 87 yards lost on 14 sacks, and subtract those from his rushing yards, because chances are he was at least partially at fault. That leaves him with 220 yards on the ground, which is very good, but then you must also consider how many drives those 14 sacks killed because it set the offense back into an unmanageable down and distance.

Foles has been sacked just twice so far this season. He’s getting the ball out of his hand nearly a full second faster (2.63 s). The lack of negative plays from the quarterback is a big reason why a higher percentage of possessions have resulted in touchdowns under Foles than Vick, because they don’t wind up having to convert as many impossible third downs.

Yards Per Play

The other dimension Vick adds that Foles allegedly doesn’t is big plays down the field. There’s no denying Vick has an incredible arm, and Foles’ deep ball has not exactly impressed. There is more than one way to pick up huge chunks of yards though.

In fact, there isn’t really any truth to the idea the aerial attack has been more explosive under Vick. The incumbent is averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt this season, Foles 8.9. In 2012, Vick’s averaged 6.7 to Foles’ 6.4.

Foles may not be able to throw a ball 70 yards like Vick, but there is no evidence the offense is hampered in any way by that. Look at what happened when he made a simple, accurate, well-timed throw to Riley Cooper five yards away from the line of scrimmage in Tampa Bay—Cooper spun away from the defensive back and raced for 40-plus yards. There's something to be said for that.

Maybe over time this number would favor Vick as Foles builds more of a portfolio, but for right now there really isn’t a significant difference here.

Age, Contract

Okay, age and contract aren’t necessarily statistics in the conventional sense, but they’re certainly relevant to this discussion. Vick is 33-years-old and playing on a one-year contract. Foles is 24 and has two years remaining. Which player has a better chance of contributing in Philadelphia next season? Two years from now? Five years from now?

What this debate ultimately boils down to is there is a young quarterback on the roster playing well and improving seemingly every week versus a flawed 11-year veteran whose ceiling is known. If Vick had clearly outplayed Foles either this year or last or even this summer during training camp and preseason, we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion, but Foles has been step-for-step with Vick at every turn.

Why not give the kid a chance and find out what they’ve got?

It doesn’t matter if Foles fails, because if history is any indication, Vick will too. Vick almost certainly is not the franchise’s quarterback of the future, let alone next year, but with Foles there is a chance they have something more. We just don’t know.

Yankees 9, Phillies 4: Cameron Perkins comes out swinging

Yankees 9, Phillies 4: Cameron Perkins comes out swinging

TAMPA -- The Phillies’ bats were slow getting started in the Grapefruit League opener Friday afternoon. The Phils did not have a baserunner through the first six innings in a 9-4 loss to the New York Yankees at Steinbrenner Field.

“First game, I’m just happy we got at-bats because the pitching is always ahead of the hitting this early,” Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said afterward.

Outfielder Cameron Perkins had the Phillies’ first hit, a single up the middle in the seventh inning. He added a solo homer in the ninth inning.

Perkins, 26, was the Phillies’ sixth-round pick in the 2012 draft out of Purdue University. He graduated from Southport High School in Indianapolis, the same school that produced Phillies great and Hall of Famer Chuck Klein.

A right-hander hitter who eschews batting gloves, Perkins hit .292 with eight homers and 47 RBIs at Triple A Lehigh Valley last season. He is not on the 40-man roster but was invited to camp for a look-see. He is considered a longshot to win a spot on the Phillies’ bench, but will certainly improve his chances if he keeps swinging it like he did Friday.

“I don’t think about it,” Perkins said of his bid to make the club. “All I can do is what I did today -- get my opportunity and make the most of it.”

Brock Stassi, another candidate for a job on the Phillies’ bench, also homered.

On the pitching side
Right-hander Alec Asher, who projects to open in the Triple A rotation, started for the Phils. He pitched two innings, allowed a home run to Didi Gregorius and struck out two.

Asher made big strides with his sinker last season. He’s added a cutter now.

Right-hander Nick Pivetta debuted with two scoreless innings. He gave up a hit, walked one and struck out three. The Phillies acquired Pivetta from Washington from Jonathan Papelbon in July 2015. He projects to open in the Triple A rotation, but first will pitch for Team Canada in the WBC in March.

“It’s a lifelong dream for me, right up there with whenever it is that I get my first start with the Phillies,” Pivetta said.

The bullpen
Mackanin has said he’d like to have two left-handed relievers in his bullpen. The Phillies have just one -- Joely Rodriguez -- on their 40-man roster, although it’s possible that Adam Morgan could be shifted from starter to reliever later in camp.

The Phils have brought two veteran lefties -- Sean Burnett and Cesar Ramos -- into camp on minor-league deals to compete for a job. Burnett made his debut Friday and gave up a triple, a sacrifice fly and a home run in his inning of work.

Luis Garcia was tagged for four hits and three runs in his spring debut.

Up next
The Phillies host the Yankees in Clearwater on Saturday afternoon. Morgan will start for the Phils against right-hander Adam Warren.

A Q & A with Siera Santos

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A Q & A with Siera Santos

What experience had the biggest impact on your life and career in sports and why? 
I’m often asked why I chose to be in sports broadcasting and the answer is not exactly brief. Most people aren’t familiar with my backstory. While I prefer to tell it face-to-face, here it is in a nutshell: Throughout high school, I had a lot of “problems” (that’s the gentle way of putting it). I didn’t graduate and instead got my GED while I was in a treatment center in Utah. That summer when I returned home to Arizona, I needed a healthy distraction and, although I had always been a casual Arizona Diamondbacks and Phoenix Suns fan, I started watching games every day and reading the sports section with my dad over our morning cup of coffee.

When the NBA season started, I begged my dad for season tickets. This was the Nash/Stoudemire/Marion era and tickets were incredibly expensive. While we didn’t get season tickets that year, we went to several regular season and playoff games. Next season rolled around and, once again, I pleaded with my dad to get us season tickets. He finally broke down and bought a half-season package. We went to nearly every other game. I knew at that point that I wanted to go to games for the rest of my life. I enrolled in community college for the spring with my heart set on getting a degree in broadcast journalism. Not only did Suns games change the course of my future, but they also repaired my relationship with my dad. 

Who’s had the biggest impact and why?  
It’s difficult to single out one person. Obviously my parents' unwavering support got me where I am today. If I had to name someone who is currently a mentor-figure in my life, it would definitely be Jesse Sanchez from MLB Network. He always checks in to make sure I’m OK (in both my career and personal life), and he’s given me invaluable feedback and advice. There aren’t many Latinos working in sports media at national level and he encourages me to embrace who I am. 

What are some of the funniest moments you’ve experienced as a woman in sports?
When I tell people I’m a sports broadcaster, the immediate follow-up question tends to be: “Oh, so you like sports?” It’s tough to not respond with something sarcastic so I usually say, “Nope! I hate them!” I just don’t think it’s a question that you would ask a man in sports broadcasting. 

What was the most negative moment you’ve experienced ... the one that got you fired up or perhaps made you think about quitting?
Overall, most of my interactions are very positive and the majority of athletes are professionals. But I did have an issue with one player who was unbelievably disrespectful. He had been inappropriate on two previous occasions and I dreaded having to crowd around his locker to do interviews with him after games. I stopped asking him questions and after one of the scrums, he said: “If you’re not going to ask any questions, move your ass to the back.” My cameraman was still rolling and the mic was still hot. It was caught on video. Eventually, the issue was resolved with the support of my superiors. However, the entire ordeal was embarrassing and made my job more difficult. 
 
Have you had any teachable moments, i.e. someone made an ignorant comment, but had no idea you were offended – until you said something?
Double-checking the pronunciation of names that I’m not familiar with has been a priority. If you slip-up on a name, viewers will crucify you. Most male broadcasters will be forgiven for a mispronunciation, but it’s not necessarily the same for women. 

Any awkward moments?  
Whenever an athlete crosses the line and tries to be flirtatious or ask for a date. It doesn’t happen as often as you’d think, but it’s still uncomfortable. 

What are you most proud of?
I’m often asked “Well, what’s next?” The truth is I’m very happy with where I am. My end goal was to be a team reporter for a regional sports network and that’s exactly what I’m doing. I live in an amazing city and I love what I do. After I dropped out of high school, I never thought I would make it this far, much less graduate college. I’m incredibly grateful to be here and I’m proud of where I am.

A lot of girls look up to you and aspire to be on TV covering sports. What is the most important message you want to send to them?
Be someone that people enjoy working with and being around. Always be open to feedback. Don’t be afraid to ask questions if you’re not 100 percent sure. Oh, and don’t post anything on social media that you wouldn’t want your grandma to see.