NL contenders: D-backs bet future on Mark Trumbo

NL contenders: D-backs bet future on Mark Trumbo
February 18, 2014, 10:00 am
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Mark Trumbo has 66 homers and 195 RBIs the last two seasons, but just a .305 on-base percentage and 337 strikeouts. (USA Today Images)

We spent last week previewing the NL East, but the strength of the Nationals and Braves means that the Phillies likely have a better shot at the playoffs by winning a wild-card, something they’ve never done. In the coming days, we’ll break down the Phils’ top competition for the two NL wild-card spots.

Up next: Arizona Diamondbacks

2013 record: 81-81

Additions: OF/1B Mark Trumbo, SP Bronson Arroyo, RP Addison Reed, C Henry Blanco

Subtractions: CF Adam Eaton, SP Tyler Skaggs, 3B Matt Davidson, RP Heath Bell, OF Juan Rivera, C Wil Nieves

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The Diamondbacks traded away two key pieces of their future to upgrade immediately, so anything less than a playoff berth in 2014 will be a huge disappointment.

Arizona dealt 25-year-old centerfielder Adam Eaton (a potential defensive whiz and leadoff batter who hit .348 in 1,560 minor-league plate appearances) and 22-year-old lefty Tyler Skaggs (a top-10 MLB prospect by MLB.com prior to 2013) in a three-team trade that brought back slugger Mark Trumbo.

Worth it? We’ll see. Places loads of pressure on Trumbo to protect Paul Goldschmidt. The opinion here is that Trumbo’s an overrated home-run hitter. From 2011-13 he averaged 32 homers and 94 RBIs. He also hit .251 with a .300 on-base percentage and struck out 457 times. The most alarming sign? His strikeouts have increased from 120 to 153 to 184 the last three years.

And the Diamondbacks acquired the 27-year-old Trumbo just as he’s about to start getting expensive. He made $4.8 million in his first year of arbitration, which could result in his making about $23-25 million the next two years.

Top offense?
The projected Diamondbacks starting lineup looks like this:

Gerardo Parra (L) - CF
Aaron Hill (R) - 2B
Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
Mark Trumbo (R) - LF
Miguel Montero (L) - C
Martin Prado (R) - 3B
Cody Ross (R) - RF
Didi Gregorius (L) - SS

That’s a pretty good lineup. Parra is one of the most underrated players in baseball -- he hit a deceptively low .268 in 2013 with 43 doubles and 10 homers, played all three positions and won a Gold Glove.

Hill’s hit .298 with an .860 OPS since joining Arizona.

Goldschmidt led the NL in homers, RBIs, slugging, OPS and intentional walks last season and finished second in MVP voting. He’s a big, powerful first baseman who hits good pitching and can run and steal bases. My pick for 2014 NL MVP.

Montero was terrible in 2013 but is still one of the top-seven offensive catchers.

Phillies fans remember just how complete a hitter Prado is, and just how difficult he is to deal with when runners are in scoring position. Ross gives you power out of the seven-hole and Gregorius will compete with top prospect Chris Owings for the shortstop job.

If everyone stays healthy, Arizona could have one of the three best offenses in the National League. It looks like a better offense, on paper, than any NL East team boasts.

All No. 3s
The Arizona rotation is solid but unspectacular. There is really no ace, unless you think lefty Patrick Corbin is the guy who was 12-2 with a 2.24 ERA at the end of July and not the guy who went 2-6 with a 6.05 ERA the final two months.

After Corbin comes Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, Bronson Arroyo and Wade Miley. Nobody in this rotation is a strikeout pitcher. Cahill relies on groundballs, Arroyo relies on deception and McCarthy relies on pinpoint control.

The bullpen will go as far as Addison Reed and J.J. Putz take it. Reed, the 25-year-old closer acquired from the White Sox this offseason, had 40 saves but eight blown saves and a middling 3.79 ERA last season. You never know which Putz will show up from year to year.

Brad Ziegler and hard-thrower David Hernandez have some skills.

The prediction
Arizona loses a lot of games to the Dodgers because it isn't built to beat them. L.A.’s rotation will negate the D-backs’ biggest strength.

Colleague Ben Davis is picking the Diamondbacks to win one of the two wild-cards, but I’m predicting they go 84-78, miss the playoffs and finish tied for second place in the NL West with the Giants.