NL East rivals: Mets gained offense, lost pitching

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The Phillies look mostly the same, but the rest of the National League East improved significantly this winter. Over the coming days we’ll preview each of the Phils’ divisional foes, as well as their competition for an NL wild-card spot.

Up next: New York Mets

2013 record: 74-88

Key additions: OF Curtis Granderson, SP Bartolo Colon, OF Chris Young, RP Kyle Farnsworth, RP Jose Valverde, SP John Lannan, C Taylor Teagarden

Key subtractions: INF Justin Turner, OF Jordany Valdespin, RP LaTroy Hawkins, RP David Aardsma, RP Brandon Lyon, SP Shaun Marcum

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No Harvey hurts
The Mets’ most important subtraction wasn’t listed above because the player wasn’t released or traded, but he’ll still miss most or all of 2014.

Matt Harvey, the Mets’ ace who broke out in 2013 at age 24, had Tommy John surgery in October, and unless New York is on the brink of contention late in the season he likely won’t pitch in 2014.

Harvey, who went 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in 26 starts last season, is reportedly rehabbing fast and scheduled to throw in late February.

For the Mets, Harvey is a huge loss that cannot be offset by GM Sandy Alderson’s offseason moves. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2013, and finished with a 2.27 ERA, 9.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9, becoming the first pitcher in MLB history to match those three criteria.

Upgraded offense
The Mets finally spent some money this offseason, signing Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million contract and adding fellow outfielder Chris Young for one year at $7.25 million.

This pair should combine for 50 or more home runs in 2014, significantly boosting an outfield that last year included borderline major-leaguers like Rick Ankiel, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Jordany Valdespin, Colin Cowgill and Matt den Dekker.

With Granderson and Young manning the corners, and centerfield whiz Juan Lagares projected to remain in his spot, the Mets could have the best defensive outfield in baseball.

The Mets also finally have protection for David Wright. Wright has a .391 on-base percentage the last two years because he is a .300 hitter who could often be pitched around in recent years. That won’t be the case if Granderson is batting cleanup.

Don’t forget about catcher Travis d’Arnaud, either. The former Phillies prospect was traded to Toronto for Roy Halladay in December 2009, then went from the Blue Jays to the Mets for R.A. Dickey in December 2012.

D’Arnaud is annually a top-10 MLB prospect, but has trouble every year staying healthy. He’ll be counted on to catch about 120 games this season, which could be his breakout campaign.

Not enough pitching
The Mets just don’t have enough in the rotation or in the bullpen to contend in 2014. They’re at least a year away.

The rotation projects to be: Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia. Once Harvey returns, he, Niese, Wheeler and Mejia could form an excellent young rotation, but for now they lack a true No. 1 or even a No. 2.

That is ... unless you think Colon can go something like 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA again at age 40.

The Mets made no notable bullpen additions, and last year’s closer Bobby Parnell is still two weeks away from throwing off a mound. He had surgery in September to repair a herniated disc in his back.

If Parnell returns in time for the season, he’ll be set up by Kyle Farnsworth, a very similar pitcher. Both are right-handers with blazing fastballs but average secondary pitches. The Mets on Wednesday also added Jose Valverde, the 35-year-old former closer who the Tigers gave up on last offseason, then gave up on again during the season after he posted a 5.59 ERA over 20 appearances.

The prediction
The importance Alderson and manager Terry Collins place on plate discipline will make the Mets an above-average offense in 2014, but the pitching could be a disaster unless Colon and Niese have stellar seasons.

The Mets went 74-88 last season with Harvey, and will likely fall in that same range of wins. We peg them at fourth place in the NL East with a 75-87 record.

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