The Phillies look mostly the same, but the rest of the National League East improved significantly this winter. Over the coming days we’ll preview each of the Phils’ divisional foes, as well as their competition for an NL wild-card spot.
Up next: Miami Marlins
2013 record: 62-100; last place in NL East; worst record in National League
Key additions: C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 1B/OF Garrett Jones, 1B/OF Jeff Baker, 2B/SS Rafael Furcal, RP Carlos Marmol, 1B/3B Casey McGehee, OF Reed Johnson, RP Henry Rodriguez, OF Jordany Valdespin
Key subtractions: RP Ryan Webb, RP Chad Qualls, 3B Placido Polanco, OF Chris Coghlan, 1B/OF Logan Morrison, RP Jon Rauch
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The Marlins were predictably atrocious a season ago, losing 100 games after reducing their payroll from $102 million in 2012 to $50 million in 2013.
MLB
That 2012 team opened the season with Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Carlos Zambrano, Mark Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Heath Bell, Omar Infante, John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, Gaby Sanchez, Edward Mujica and Randy Choate.
None of those players are still in Miami, and many -- Reyes, Ramirez, Sanchez, Nolasco, Infante, Mujica, Choate -- had very productive years in 2013.
The Marlins actually spent some money this offseason. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the switch-hitting catcher most expected to land a four-year deal, found three years at $7 million a pop from Miami. He has the highest annual average value on the team, with face of the franchise Giancarlo Stanton coming in second at $6.5 million in his first of three potentially record-breaking arbitration years.
End of an era
There’s been some turnover in Miami’s front office. Larry Beinfest, Miami’s GM and then president of baseball operations, was fired in September after 13 years with the team. He was the fall guy for a series of trades gone horribly wrong -- most notably the Miguel Cabrera deal to Detroit that brought back Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo and Dallas Trahern. None of those six men went on to any kind of success with Miami. Meanwhile, Cabrera is a back-to-back AL MVP, eventual Hall of Famer and maybe the greatest right-handed hitter the game’s ever seen.
Beinfest’s tenure wasn’t all bad, though. He built the 2003 team that won a World Series, acquiring Dontrelle Willis in his very first trade as a throw-in in a six-player deal.
Two young studs
Let’s play everyone’s favorite game: If you could build your franchise around two players, factoring in age and salary, who would they be?
On anyone’s short list are Stanton and 2013 NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez.
Stanton, at 24, has prodigious raw power, and at 6-6/240 looks like he was created in a lab. He struggled through injuries the last two years -- back, wrist, thigh, knees -- and missed a total of 85 games. Yet still, he managed to hit .270/.363/.549 over that span with 61 homers and 148 RBIs. Project that out to a full season and you’re looking at 42 home runs.
Fernandez was the biggest surprise of the 2013 season for any team. He was supposed to start the season in Double A but was forced into Miami’s early-season rotation because of injuries. How did the 2011 first-round pick respond? By going 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA in 28 starts.
Fernandez struck out 187 batters in 172 2/3 innings, finishing just behind A.J. Burnett in K/9. Hard throwers typically struggle with control when they’re 20 years old, but not Fernandez -- he walked only 3.0 batters per nine.
Most opponents failed completely to make solid contact off Fernandez -- the league hit .182/.257/.265 off him. It was the seventh-lowest opponents’ batting average in major-league history and second-lowest since 2000, to Pedro Martinez.
Fernandez will be Miami’s opening day starter and Stanton will hit either third or fourth. It’s a good thing for Phillies fans that there is little fan support in Miami or else the Marlins would be armed to spend more to supplement their dynamic duo.
The Phils, by the way, went 8 for 62 (.129) off Fernandez last year with seven singles and a homer. They got on base 12 times in 18 innings.
Fish will be better
It would be hard to be worse.
The Marlins actually have major-league players in their projected opening day lineup this time around. Rafael Furcal, who missed all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery, was signed to play second base and lead off. Garrett Jones replaced Logan Morrison at first base. Saltalamacchia takes over behind the plate for the overmatched Rob Brantly-Jeff Mathis tandem. Casey McGehee will man the hot corner instead of the corpse of Placido Polanco.
The Fish also have a couple promising young outfielders outside of Stanton. Centerfielder Marcell Ozuna jumped from Double A to the majors in 2013 and had immediate success, hitting .336 with an .869 OPS in his first 135 plate appearances before fading down the stretch. Ozuna's throwing arm -- described as Vladimir Guerrero-like by manager Mike Redmond -- dropped many a jaw in 2013.
In left field is Christian Yelich, Miami’s first pick in the 2010 draft. He hit .288/.370/.396 in 273 plate appearances last season after four productive seasons of minor-league development. He looks like a two-hole hitter.
Weak pitching
This is where Miami’s flaws are most apparent. After Fernandez, the Marlins have no proven starting pitchers. You’re looking at Nate Eovaldi, Jacob Turner, Henderson Alvarez and a fifth starter like Tom Koehler or Brad Hand. Yuck.
The Fish did add to their bullpen a little, obtaining hard-throwing righty Carter Capps from the Mariners for Morrison. They also took fliers on 100-mph man Henry Rodriguez and 31-year-old enigma Carlos Marmol.
Capps could emerge as a setup man. He’s struck out 94 batters in 84 innings in two major-league season, and averages -- yes, averages -- 96-97 with the fastball.
Steve Cishek is back as the arms-and-legs closer, though he could be the first to go when the Marlins are out of contention by the summer. Cishek is due $3.8 million this season and has three arbitration years ahead of him. He’s going to be too expensive to keep for a rebuilding team.
The prediction(s)
We hear more Stanton trade speculation that leads to nowhere, Yelich and Ozuna turn some heads, Fernandez regresses a bit but still finishes in the top-five in Cy Young voting.
Miami improves upon last year’s record and goes 70-92, but still finishes in last place in the NL East.