Phillies free-agent fits: SP Doug Fister

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With free agency just underway and the MLB general managers' meetings taking place this upcoming week, we'll use the next few days to look at free agents who might fit what the Phillies are trying to — or should be trying to — accomplish this offseason.

On Thursday, I opened with Jeff Samardzija, a starting pitcher looking to reestablish his value after a down year.

On Friday, Jim Salisbury took a look at some solid late-inning relievers who might be on the Phillies' radar.

Up next: SP Doug Fister

From 2011 through 2014, Fister posted a 3.11 ERA in 116 appearances (114 starts), averaging 188 innings per year. Over that time he walked just 142 batters in 750⅔ innings, a major reason for his success. He's never been a big strikeout guy, he's never thrown hard, but he generates a lot of groundballs and soft contact with his sinker.

Last season was a disaster for the 31-year-old right-hander. He spent a month on the DL with forearm tightness, and when he returned he wasn't effective. His walk rate and home run rate increased while his groundball rate decreased.

After allowing three home runs to the Diamondbacks on Aug. 3, Fister and his 4.60 ERA was pulled from the Nationals' rotation. He finished up the season pitching out of the bullpen, but he'll return to a rotation in 2016.

Fister, like Samardzija, must rebuild his value if he hopes to find a lucrative long-term contract. Had he been a free agent after 2014, he may have found $50 million or more. But now? There probably won't be a ton of money out there for an 88-mph guy in his early-30s coming off a season marred by injury and ineffectiveness.

Enter the Phillies.

The Phils could strike bronze by signing Fister to a one-year deal. Best-case scenario, he performs up to his previous standard and is used as a mid-July trade chip. He wouldn't bring back a ton, but he'd bring back something.

Worst-case scenario, Fister struggles or gets hurt. Either way, it's extremely improbable that he would be worse than Jerome Williams, David Buchanan or Aaron Harang were in 2015.

Adding appeal to a pursuit of Fister is the absence of a qualifying offer. The Nationals did not extend Fister the one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer because they wouldn't have wanted to pay it if he accepted. And because they didn't extend that offer, the team that signs Fister will not have to forfeit its first- or second-round pick.

That fact alone makes Fister a much better choice for the Phillies than a guy like Samardzija, even though Fister comes with less upside.

The Phillies would have to make it worth Fister's while by outbidding other teams. They can do that. They have plenty of money, contracts off the books and holes in the rotation.

This would just make a lot more sense for the Phils than going out and adding some No. 5 starters or pitchers who don't even belong in major-league rotations. The difference would be financial, but the benefit would be higher-quality innings and the potential of flipping Fister at the deadline. You can't do that with bad starting pitchers that nobody wants. New Phillies GM Matt Klentak spoke earlier in the week about "raising the floor" of the Phillies' pitching staff. Fister would raise that floor some.

Fister made $11.4 million last season. The Phillies would probably have to offer something similar, but again, that really is not a hindrance for a team that has less than $80 million committed to the 2016 payroll at the moment.

Fister would probably prefer to rebuild his value with a better team in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark than the Phillies. So they may have to overpay a bit. But, really, a pitcher like him in a crowded starting pitching market doesn't have a ton of leverage. The Phils should seriously consider being the team that pays him.

Tomorrow: We conclude with some pricey free agents who might, might just be young enough to make sense for the Phils.

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