Phillies free-agent fits: SP Jeff Samardzija

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With free agency opening Friday after 11:59 p.m. and the MLB general managers' meetings taking place next week, we'll use the next few days to look at free agents who might fit what the Phillies are trying to — or should be trying to — accomplish this offseason.

First up: right-handed starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija

Let's start with a few facts.

• The Phillies, as presently constructed, will not contend in 2016.

• The Phillies desperately need starting pitching.

• The Phillies cannot enter next season with a rotation as middling and unimpressive as it was in 2015.

And, most importantly:

• Samardzija is coming off a down year that substantially decreased his free-agent value.

Prior to the 2015 season, Samardzija looked like a potential $80 million to $90 million pitcher. He didn't project to be at the top of the starting pitching market, but he was likely to be slotted in directly after the group of David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.

But now? Samardzija probably ranks behind Mike Leake, and there are some better values teams could find on three-year deals such as Wei-Yin Chen, Hisashi Iwakuma, Scott Kazmir and maybe even the older-but-still-effective John Lackey.

Samardzija should be looking to do what we've seen many recent free agents do following down years: Sign a short-term deal to reestablish his value.

If you're Samardzija, which would you prefer: A four-year, $50 million deal like Matt Garza and Ervin Santana signed a few years ago, or a nice one-year salary and the chance of parlaying 2016 success into an even larger or longer-term contract?

The latter choice makes way more sense for someone in Samardzija's position. He's still just 30 years old, and unless he suffers a devastating injury or posts an ERA higher than last season's 4.96, he'll have more value next winter. Just hard to imagine teams overpaying Samardzija this offseason after he led the majors in hits allowed (228) and earned runs allowed (118) and gave up the most home runs in the American League (29).

We can't be sure that's who Samardzija is, though. It was by far his worst season to date. Just 16 months ago, he was traded by the Cubs to the A's for one of the top prospects in baseball at the time, shortstop Addison Russell. From 2012 to 2014, Samardzija had a 3.70 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.6 walks, some sterling peripheral numbers.

So all of that makes it more likely that Samardzija signs a one-year deal that could include a mutual option for a second year.

But would he want to sign that deal with a current cellar dweller like the Phillies? They'd have to make it worth his while financially.

The White Sox will extend Samardzija a qualifying offer, which is a firm, one-year, $15.8 million salary. No player has ever accepted a qualifying offer. If/when Samardzija turns it down, it enables the White Sox to get draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

So for it to be worth Samardzija's while, the Phillies would have to beat that $15.8 million price tag. You're probably looking at a one-year deal worth at least $17 million unless Samardzija's market dries up and he lingers in free agency until spring training nears.

You might be wondering why Samardzija would make sense for the Phillies despite the team's expected lack of competitiveness in 2016. There are several reasons. First off, he'd provide them innings. Innings are important. We saw that last season as the Phillies failed to receive them from their starting pitchers.

An arm like Samardzija would put less pressure on the Phillies' bullpen and on the young pitchers like Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff, who will be monitored closely since they're so early in their major-league careers.

There's also this: Samardzija could be a midseason trade asset for Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak if he's performing well.

Billy Beane does this regularly in Oakland — he signs a veteran with some value in hopes that he helps the A's, and if he doesn't, the player is moved by the trade deadline for prospects. The Phillies could absolutely do that with Samardzija. They wouldn't get a Cole Hamels-like haul, but they could find something similar to what Kazmir netted the A's this past season.

Those are the pros. The con of signing Samardzija, if he is indeed extended a qualifying offer ahead of Friday's deadline, is that the Phillies would forfeit their top unprotected draft pick if he signs with them. Teams drafting within the first 10 picks of the first round do not have to forfeit their first-round selection, but the Phils would have to surrender their second-rounder.

Is that worth it for a rebuilding team? That will depend on whether the Phils think the value of receiving a solid, theoretical 200-inning season from Samardzija along with the possibility of moving him for young assets outweighs the value of their second-round pick. That second-round pick would be 31st overall, but it's actually 37th because six picks will be made in Compensation Round A between the end of Round 1 and the beginning of Round 2.

Last year, The Hardball Times explored the net value of draft picks, and according to their historical data, concluded that picks 31 through 35 are worth an average of 2.6 WAR total before those players reach free agency. First overall picks were worth an average of 9.2 WAR. Huge, huge difference that really shows the chasm between the very first few picks in the MLB draft and ones that come only slightly later.

Klentak spoke in his introductory press conference about the advantages the Phillies have. One is their high draft slot. Another is their ample financial resources. Bringing in Samardzija would be a way of flexing that financial muscle while also keeping an eye on the future in hopes of trading him to a pitching-needy team in July.

It's too early to tell which Klentak and MacPhail will value more: the pick, or the potential of flipping the expensive veteran pitcher into a prospect more major-league ready than whoever they'd draft in the second round.

Doug Fister, who we will look at Saturday, is in a similar situation to Samardzija. Fister doesn't have the upside or hard fastball, but he also will likely come without the qualifying offer implications. More on him this weekend.

Up tomorrow: Jim Salisbury looks at some late-inning relievers the Phillies may target.

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