Phillies offseason targets: Josh Johnson, Chad Billingsley

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Over the next few weeks, we will take a look at free agents and trade candidates who, given the organization's direction, could fit with the Phillies in 2015 and beyond.

RHP Josh Johnson, RHP Chad Billingsley

Now here is a pair of free-agent starting pitchers that would actually make some sense for the Phillies.

Unlike the class of the market — Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields — the pitchers listed above would fit what the Phillies are trying to accomplish this offseason. With the realization setting in that they probably won't contend in 2015, the Phils are looking for inexpensive ways to fill out a thin roster while also adding some high-reward talent.

Josh Johnson and Chad Billingsley are the pitching equivalents of Grady Sizemore. All are players that were on the verge of stardom five years ago before a series of injuries set in.

Johnson, 30, did some of his best work against the Phillies. From 2005 to 2011, he went 56-37 with a 3.15 ERA with the Marlins. Few pitchers were more dominant in 2009 or 2010, when Johnson went 26-11 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and had a few epic duels with Roy Halladay.

At his peak, no right-hander in the game threw a heavier sinking fastball than Johnson, but arm injuries have robbed him of a full career. Johnson made no starts last year after signing with the Padres, missed half the season in 2013 and nearly all of 2011.

The contract he signed with San Diego last offseason was creative. It was a one-year, $8 million deal that included a team option for 2015 at just $4 million if Johnson made fewer than seven starts. Before ever making a start for the Padres, Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season.

But still, the Padres declined their end of the option on Oct. 30. It was a curious move given Johnson's upside, but it tells you all you need to know about his lengthy injury history and the concerns associated with paying him any sum of money. The Padres, or any signing team, will want to be fully confident they'll get some return on an investmment before throwing any more money at Johnson.

Just as they were last winter, the Phillies are a logical suitor for Johnson. They know his talents first-hand, they know he can succeed in the NL East, and if they just so happen to strike gold and get the healthy, recovered Johnson, they'd have a cheap frontline starting pitcher.

The Phillies should offer Johnson a one-year deal worth $2.5M to $3M and load the contract with incentives that allow it to reach $8 million to $10 million. Why not? For a 75-win team, spending money on a boom-bust SP like Johnson makes more sense than giving $7.5 million to a Kyle Kendrick-like starter.

And just as we discussed Thursday with Justin Masterson, mutual option(s) could allow the Phillies to retain Johnson's services should he stay healthy and want to return. For the Phils, this would help fill out the rotation in 2015 and potentially set them up nicely for the future. Johnson has that kind of talent.

The same principles apply to Billingsley, although at his peak he was never as effective as Johnson. Billingsley was a more steady, reliable, mid-rotation starter. From 2007 to 2012, he went 73-57 with a 3.65 ERA for the Dodgers, appearing in 199 games with 172 starts. He threw 188-plus innings each year from 2008 to 2011.

But Billingsley, too, is on the way back from elbow surgery performed last summer. All of those innings caught up to him and his health is a big question mark. He would still make sense for the Phils as a high-risk, high-reward signing, and the key factor for both Johnson and Billingsley is that both are just 30 years old. They aren't past their primes.

If the Phillies were to make no more moves before the 2015 season starts, their rotation would likely consist of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, David Buchanan and Jerome Williams. As you see, they need not just depth but quality depth in the starting staff.

Williams? That was a safe, low-risk, low-reward re-signing. The Phillies can feel comfortable with him as a No. 5 starter even if they know he probably won't replicate his work late last season. 

Johnson and Billingsley are on the opposite end of the spectrum as high-risk, high-reward options. And the Phillies are in a position where they should be taking as many calculated risks as possible in an effort to turn this roster over and get the rebuild moving.

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