Baseballs annual first-year player draft begins Monday night, but once again it is difficult to forecast which player the Phillies will grab with their first pick.
The Phillies success in the standings in recent years, and also their willingness to do business in the free-agent market, has led to a drop in the draft order.
Where once they were able to select J.D Drew with the second overall pick (1997), Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (1998), Chase Utley with the 15th overall pick (2000) and Gavin Floyd with the fourth overall pick (2001), they have in recent years spent their top pick on Larry Greene (39th overall in 2011), Jesse Biddle (27th overall in 2010), Kelly Dugan (75th overall in 2009) and Anthony Hewitt (24th overall) in 2008.
Picking this low can leave a scouting staff uncertain of whom it will select with its first pick until moments before the name is called.
The Phils wont make their first pick until 40th overall Monday night. Phillies scouts have a dozen or so players targeted with that pick, depending on which players fall their way.
The Phils forfeited their first-round pick to Boston when they signed Jonathan Papelbon. They picked up the 40th pick after losing Ryan Madson to Cincinnati. After 40, they will pick 54th, 77th, 95th and 125th. The draft lasts 40 rounds and is spread over parts of three days.
Phillies officials are tight-lipped about draft possibilities, but general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. shed some light on the teams overall goal.
MLB
Pitching is always big, he said. Wed like to add some catching. Anything in the middle of the field. Best athletes we can get. We like high ceilings.
Catching is an organizational need. Texas high school catchers Wyatt Mathisen and Steve Bean, southern California high school catcher Sammy Ayala, and Washington high school catcher Clint Coulter could all be of interest to the Phils.
There are several new rules governing the draft. The deadline for signing players has been moved up a month to July 13. And teams have spending allotments for the first 10 rounds. Teams exceeding their allotment by up to five percent will pay a tax. Going over by more than five percent will result in losing a pick in the next years draft.
The Phillies shouldnt have a problem keeping their signing bonuses in the top 10 rounds to their prescribed limit of 4,916,900. Last year, the Phils spent 3,855,300 on the top 10 rounds.
The draft runs parts of three days.
E-mail Jim Salisbury at jsalisbury@comcastsportsnet.com