Phillies trade targets: Yankees prospects

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Every other day leading up to the All-Star break, we'll examine packages of prospects the Phillies should look to acquire in potential deals for their talented veterans. We'll go team-by-team, looking only at realistic contenders and trade partners.

On Monday, we analyzed the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles. On Wednesday, it was the Toronto Blue Jays.

Today, we look at the New York Yankees:

The Yankees were already a potential landing spot for Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels, and New York's need for a starting pitcher only grew after Masahiro Tanaka was forced to the 15-day DL with elbow inflammation.

There is some concern that Tanaka, who throws more splitters than any pitcher in baseball, will require season-ending Tommy John surgery. Considering the Yankees are 13-5 when Tanaka pitches and 33-40 when he doesn't, his loss could end the Yankees' hopes of contending in 2014.

That is, unless they're able to find a top-of-the-rotation replacement.

Lee threw four innings Wednesday in his second minor-league rehab start. It looks like he will make one more rehab start Monday before re-joining the Phillies for the second half of the season.

Lee should be on track to start for the Phillies in their first series after the All-Star break in Atlanta. Regular rest would have him on schedule to pitch Saturday, July 19. That would enable him to make three starts before the trade deadline -- July 19 in Atlanta, July 24 vs. San Francisco and July 29 at Citi Field.

If the Yankees like what they see from Lee, they won't have time to mess around. With Tanaka out, they need help immediately. Despite New York's mediocre first half, the Yanks are just four games out of first place in a winnable AL East.

The Yankees have been fond of Lee for quite some time. They tried unsuccessfully to acquire him in 2010, when he went from Seattle to Texas at the deadline. They also made an aggressive push to sign Lee the ensuing offseason, when he instead returned to Philadelphia on a five-year, $120 million contract.

The Phillies have indicated that they would consider absorbing salary if it enhances the return package. Lee has about $46 million guaranteed left on his contract. If his 2016 option is exercised, that increases to $61 million.

The Yankees are one of the few teams that would have no issue paying that salary. But if all the Phils can hope for is salary relief, they'll simply hold onto Lee and either keep him or trade him in the winter.

For the Phillies, a Lee-to-New York deal doesn't make sense unless the Yankees pony up some top prospects. One who immediately comes to mind is star reliever Dellin Betances, who earned a trip to the All-Star Game by posting a 1.52 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 39 appearances with 81 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings.

Betances is a starter-turned-reliever who can pitch multiple innings and has proven to be consistenly dominant in any role or inning. The Phillies already have the makings of a strong bullpen and he'd make it arguably the best young relief corps in the game when slotted alongside Ken Giles and Jake Diekman.

The Yankees reportedly expressed reluctance in trading Betances as part of a package for Jeff Samardzija, who went to the Athletics last weekend. But you have to give to get, and the Yanks have even less leverage now than they did a week ago, when the first trade for a starting pitcher hadn't yet been made and Tanaka was still healthy.

Betances would be just a piece of the package the Phillies should seek in talks with Yankees GM Brian Cashman. Trading Lee straight-up for Betances would not provide the Phillies the value they need. The Yanks would have to include some minor-league prospects, as well.

Luis Severino is a right-hander in New York's system who has surged to the top of their prospect charts this season. The 20-year-old Dominican has a 2.45 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings at Single A. He was recently promoted from Class A Charleston to High A Tampa and has allowed just three runs in 20 2/3 innings with 28 strikeouts and six walks.

Catcher Gary Sanchez is another piece the Phillies should target. He was rated the 35th-best prospect in the game entering 2014, but he's been supplanted by a few other Yankees youngsters, according to Mike Axisa of RiverAveBlues.com and CBS Sports.

Sanchez, a 21-year-old backstop, has hit .274/.343/.433 in his second go-round at Double A Trenton, contributing 17 doubles, nine homers, 44 RBIs and a 40-percent rate of nailing potential base stealers.

The Phillies don't have a true catcher of the future because Tommy Joseph hasn't been able to stay healthy. Sanchez could be that, or he could be a trade chip if Joseph eventually does end up on a linear path to the majors.

There's also rightfielder Aaron Judge, the Yankees' 2013 first-round pick. He's hit .320 with 13 homers and 61 RBIs in 85 games in his first minor-league season, already earning a promotion to High A Tampa. 

Lee for Betances, Severino and Sanchez or Judge would be a solid trade for the Phillies. It would finally provide them the return they've sought for Lee and were unable to find last summer.

But if you're asking for that much, you'll need to pick up a lot of Lee's money. Of the remaining $46-61 million, the Phillies would probably need to eat about $30 million to net those prospects.

It would be worth it for the Phils. Would it be worthwhile for Cashman and the Yankees?

If Lee comes back healthy -- which by all indications he will -- then he would be a reliable replacement ace for Tanaka. Or if Tanaka is able to avoid Tommy John surgery, a one-two punch of Tanaka and Lee would be the best in the American League.

In that regard, sure it's worth it, especially if the Phillies pick up about half of the remaining money. The Yankees are already spending $198 million on payroll with over $161 million committed for 2015, so they'll need the pitching depth. They have absolutely no idea what to expect in the future from CC Sabathia and can't be overly confident about Michael Pineda pitching a full season any time soon.

The Yankees aren't a team in need of a mid-rotation arm like Bartolo Colon, Jorge De La Rosa or John Danks. They're a team loaded with high-priced veterans that still needs another top-end pitcher. And we forget just how good Lee is because he's been out seven weeks. Prior to his elbow injury, Lee had a 3.18 ERA with 61 strikeouts and nine walks in 68 innings.

If the Yankees buy, they must buy big to stay in the race. And it's difficult to see them selling in Derek Jeter's final season and after spending nearly $500 million in free agency.

On Sunday, we'll look at potential Phillies trade targets from the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers.

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