Phillies X-factors: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard

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Baseball season starts on Monday, so in the four days leading up to opening day, John Finger and I will break down the Phillies' X-factors for the 2014 season.

First up: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley

Ryan Howard has missed 173 games the last two seasons. Chase Utley missed 110 games the last two seasons, and has averaged just 108 games per year since 2010.

Since 2012, the Phillies are 37-43 when both Howard and Utley sit. They're 17-13 when just Utley sits, and 38-57 when just Howard sits.

So they're 92-113 in games without one or both of Utley and Howard. That's a .449 winning percentage, about a 73-win pace.

Over that same span, they're 62-57 when both play. That's a .521 winning percentage, about an 84.5-win pace.

Obviously, Utley and Howard are the offensive X-factors for the Phillies this season.

What can we expect from the right side of the infield in 2014?

If you put stock into spring training performance, you're probably not high on either player.

Utley has hit .175 through 20 spring games with just one extra-base hit and one walk. A large portion of his balls in play have been on the ground as he's struggled to drive the ball with his legs.

Howard has hit .238 with three homers and two doubles in 63 at-bats. He's also struck out 25 times, which is four more than any major-leaguer this spring.

Spring stats usually have little correlation to regular-season success or failure, but it's also difficult for a player to just flip a switch when the stats actually count. Howard's been striking out all spring against pitchers working on their stuff. Utley's certainly not trying to go up to the plate and make weak contact.

Projecting Utley

Seidman: Admittedly, I'm not optimistic about Utley having a strong year. He's coming off a solid overall campaign -- he hit .284/.348/.475 in 2013 with 18 homers, 69 RBIs, 25 doubles and six triples -- but he lacked power most of the second half. Utley had just 16 extra-base hits in his final 237 plate appearances, or about one XBH every four games. In his final 41 games, he slugged .389.

Utley can still be very productive if he gets on base enough. In 2013, he had a .348 OBP, his second-lowest mark in the last nine seasons. After striking out just eight more times than he walked from 2010-12, Utley struck out 34 more times than he walked in 2013.

Utley is now 35 with a history of knee injuries. He doesn't need to hit 25-plus home runs to be a valuable player, but if the power has truly sapped he'll need to make up for it by utilizing the disciplined eye that netted him a .388 on-base percentage during his six-year peak.

Finger: At the very least, 2013 was a bounce-back year for Utley. After two seasons of battling his chronic knee condition, Utley played in 131 games -- the most since 2009 -- and did not miss a game because of his knees.

Utley also batted .284 with 18 homers and an .823 OPS in '13. Over 162 games, those numbers are off his 2008 and 2009 marks, but not by much.

That's the good news.

The bad news is Utley hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball this spring. In fact, he went 10 for 57 with one double and one walk. Utley has insisted he's healthy and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. chalked up the struggles to issues with timing. The Phillies (and Utley) better hope it's just a timing thing, because if it isn't ... uh-oh.

Utley is 35 and likely will watch his numbers slip some more in 2014. However, there are some examples of second basemen that were able to play effectively even when the stats dipped. Jeff Kent is one. Craig Biggio is another.

Maybe the guy with the best advice for Utley is his manager, Ryne Sandberg, who retired at age 35 but made a comeback at age 36. Sandberg didn't come close to matching his Hall of Fame numbers in his last few seasons, but he was still a contributor. If anyone knows what Utley is going through, it's Sandberg.

Projecting Howard

Finger: Healthy, fit, rested and presumably happy after putting a couple of injury-plagued seasons in the rear-view mirror, Howard goes into 2014 expecting big things.

But how big? Though Howard was productive when he played the last two seasons, his home runs waned. Clearly the big fella's days of being a 50-homer threat are gone. For that matter, he might not even be a 40-homer threat any more.

Sometimes, though, reputation is as good as skill. Though Howard may have had some of his power sapped with age, the specter of him launching long balls deep into the seats is still fresh. In other words, Howard's presence in the Phillies' lineup every day is no small thing. Perhaps writing Howard's name down will make the Phillies' offense better?

For how much longer remains the most important question. Still, a 30-homer and 110-RBI season should be the norm for Howard. If it's not, the Phillies have bigger issues.

Seidman: I wonder if Howard is even capable of going 30/110. ESPN projects him to hit .260 with 26 homers and 70 RBIs. Yahoo! projects him to hit .250 with a .321 OBP, 23 homers and 89 RBIs.

And the two most commonly used projection systems -- Steamer and ZiPS -- have Howard hitting .238 with an OBP between .310 and .313. Steamer forecasts Howard playing 113 games; ZiPS has him playing 95. Neither system has him hitting more than 21 homers or driving in more than 67 runs.

Now, just because those are the projections doesn't mean that's what Howard will do. But these sources usually do a decent job of filtering out bias and looking at historical data that is predictive of future performance based on similar cases of age and decline.

I think Howard can play 130 games this year, and if he plays 130 games he's going to hit at least 27 homers. But 27-30 homers aren't that valuable when they come attached with poor defense, poor baserunning and a .310 on-base percentage. That plate discipline ...

Howard still can't lay off high fastballs or low-and-away breaking balls. You hear that often because it's the case -- he's never been able to improve that part of his game. Hopefully with Sandberg's insistence on Howard watching more film some of those awful two-strike swings can turn into takes.

But those league-leading 25 strikeouts in his first 70 spring plate appearances don't bode well.

Tomorrow, we took a look at the X-factor in the Phillies' bullpen.

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