Why Odubel Herrera's sky-high walk rate looks sustainable

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Odubel Herrera has walked 23 times this season, 21 times unintentionally. Both marks are second in the majors to perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.

Jimmy Rollins, who was criticized for years for not taking enough pitches atop the Phillies' lineup, walked 22 times in May 2014.

That May 2014 proved to be unsustainable for Rollins.

But this April 2016 for Herrera? It just might be sustainable.

You have to look at how Herrera walks. He walks by knowing the strike zone and seeing a ton of pitches. He walks by getting to a 2-2 count and fouling off a few pitches in a row before the pitcher loses his control and walks him. It becomes inevitable. No matter how great one's control is, he's going to miss the zone eventually.

If you've watched the Phillies this season, you've seen it. If you watched Herrera the second half of last season — when he hit .339 with a .396 OBP — you saw it, too. And the numbers back it up.

Herrera ranks second in the majors with 4.77 pitches seen per plate appearance. He also ranks second in the majors with a 36.1 percent foul ball rate — which means 36.1 percent of the strikes against him have been foul balls. That's a full nine percent above the league average.

A week ago, Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said it's interesting because he considers Herrera a free swinger and yet he's working all these walks. There's some truth in that as well.

Herrera really isn't swinging that much less than the rest of the league. The league-average swing rate is 45 percent and he's at 43 percent. The difference comes with swings on pitches out of the strike zone. On pitches out of the zone, the league average swing rate is 34 percent and Herrera is at 28 percent.

It's been fascinating watching Herrera's development and it will continue to be. No, he's not going to finish the season with a .460 on-base percentage like he has now — that would mean getting on base more than 9 out of every 20 times the rest of the year.

But based on what Herrera has shown with his bat and his eye over his last 102 games, this could really be who he is. Dating back to last June 28, Herrera has hit .331 with a .412 on-base percentage in exactly 405 plate appearances. There are only two players in baseball during that span who have come to the plate at least 400 times and have a higher OBP than Herrera: Joey Votto (.475) and Bryce Harper (.448).

Herrera has shown extremely useful offensive skills, and there's a chance that when we're looking back at 2016 season stats this winter, Herrera will have become a darling of the advanced stats community because of what he adds to a lineup. He's getting on base more than all but four players in the league, he's making pitchers work and giving his teammates a chance to see what they're throwing, and he's utilizing his speed once on base.

Most expected this to be Maikel Franco's breakout season and so far it has been to an extent. But Herrera's emergence might be even more noticeable. 

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