Alternate Take: Market Validates Phillies on Madson, but Doesn't Justify Deal with Papelbon

Alternate Take: Market Validates Phillies on Madson, but Doesn't Justify Deal with Papelbon

Kulp is 100% right that the free agent market has validated the Phillies' decision not to re-sign Ryan Madson for the amount of money he sought. That said, Madson's absurd contract demands hardly excuse the choice the team ultimately made in signing Jonathan Papelbon.

Indeed, Kulp's most insightful point in his argument that Madson's Availability Validates the Phillies is his concession that "for some people, no closer is worth the $50 million the team gave Papelbon."

In this case, the Phillies weren't wrong in opting to part ways with Madson; instead, they were wrong in their choice to spend that as much money as they did in the way they did it. As sad as it is to say, the Phillies' decision to say "no" to Scott Boras doesn't let them off the hook for saying "yes" to a pitcher with as high a price tag and an arguably lower return on investment than the one they denied.

For reference, we published the following figures on December 8, 2011 in our piece on Madson declining arbitration with the Phillies, a move that all but guaranteed the end of his time with the club:

Prior to closing 32 of 34 save opportunities for 2.37 ERA in 2011, only Mariano Rivera, Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol and Darren Oliver had posted lower ERAs [than Ryan Madson] in as many innings of relief since 2007. With that in mind, as Madson's numbers were right in line with those of Bell in 2011, it's reasonable to think that the team who signs him will have to fork over Bell-like money (3 years and $27 million). Consider those contract figures and statistics when you revisit what the Phillies just paid for Madson's successor in Papelbon.

As for Papelbon, it was only his 3.90 ERA in 2010 that kept him off the above list. Moving on to compare all three in 2011, the former Red So(ck) did feature a lower WHIP than either Bell or Madson (.933 vs. 1.149 and 1.154), but also sported a higher ERA (2.94 vs. 2.44 and 2.37).

Arguing that Papelbon is on the downside of his career also isn't unthinkable given his horrid season in 2010 and his struggles down the stretch in 2011. On the other hand, with the exception of the month of June and the last two weeks of September, 2011 otherwise seemed like a bounce back year for the 31-year-old.

Those statistics and trends bear one of either two possibilities: Papelbon is either on the downside of his career, or he is comparable to Madson and Bell.

Regardless of which is the case, and debate that as you will, it seems very hard to contend that the Phillies didn't overpay Papelbon in light of the deal Bell signed and the one Madson has yet to receive.

In short, Ryan Madson's fouled up free agency doesn't excuse the team from overpaying for someone else, especially if that someone else is arguably worse. This doesn't mean that Papelbon doesn't have the tools to earn his $51 million, rendering this argument moot, it just means that the team overestimated his value as related to comparable options.

If they were going to pay for a closer, then last two years of baseball should have evidenced Ryan Madson and Heath Bell as the safer investments. In any case, none of them should have been offered $51 million, an assessment with which 29 other teams agree.

Previously:
>>>Madson's Availability Vindicates Phillies
>>>Madson Declines Arbitration, Likely Done as a Phillie

Penn State uses dominant second half to top No. 6 Wisconsin for Big Ten title

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Penn State uses dominant second half to top No. 6 Wisconsin for Big Ten title

INDIANAPOLIS — Penn State’s offense rewrote the Big Ten Championship’s offensive record book Saturday night but its 38-31 victory over Wisconsin wasn’t secure until the final minute.

And Linebacker U. got the game-saving play from the secondary.

Wisconsin, armed with a pair of timeouts and lining up for a fourth-and-1 play from the Nittany Lions’ 24, called on Corey Clement. Clement, who’d already racked up 166 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, got the ball but never got close to the marker.

Grant Haley made sure of it.

The junior cornerback wrapped up Clement’s legs and safety Marcus Allen kept Clement from leaning forward and the game was over. Penn State (11-2) has the 2016 Big Ten title and, at worst, will play in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2009.

“They ran [a counter] early in the game and split it for a touchdown,” Haley said of the final play. “I saw them set the edge, so I got triggered really well and Marcus finished off the play.”

Haley and company watched the Badgers run wild in the first half; 164 yards and three touchdowns, including Clement’s 67-yard scamper. Wisconsin, one of the conference’s best rushing teams this season, managed less than half that total (77) in the second half.

“They really weren’t running that many plays,” Haley added. “We just came out in the second half and had a jolt. 

“We just had the energy going into the second half.”

Wisconsin got the ball twice in the fourth quarter but managed only 65 yards - 51 of which came on its final drive.

“Give credit to Penn State for coming out in the second half and making those adjustments and allowing those big plays to happen,” Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said. 

Give plenty of credit, too, to the Nittany Lions’ offense. 

Quarterback Trace McSorley was named the game’s most valuable player after completing 17 of his 25 passes for 319 yards and four touchdowns - both championship game records. He helped Penn State complete the biggest comeback in the game’s six year history after his team fell behind 28-7 in the first half and also finished the regular season with 3,360 yards and 25 touchdown passes, both school records.

Saeed Blacknall had six catches for a Big Ten Championship-record 155 yards and two touchdowns and DaeShean Hamilton finished with 118 yards on eight grabs.

Tailback Saquon Barkley, injured in last weekend’s victory over Michigan State, returned with 88 yards and a touchdown on the ground and caught an 18-yard scoring pass from McSorley early in the fourth quarter to put the Nittany Lions ahead for good.

Penn State, in its first-ever trip to this game, is coming home from it with just its second outright Big Ten title. It’s on a nine-game winning streak that has seen it average 40 points per contest.

It also could present the College Football Playoff selection committee with a bit of quandary. The Nittany Lions, who were ranked seventh by the committee last week, topped the No. 6 Badgers and claimed a conference championship, something likely playoff teams Alabama, Clemson and Washington all boast.

On the flip side, Penn State’s last defeat was a lopsided 49-10 loss at Michigan, which sits at No. 5 in the rankings and likely won’t move into the top four after losing last week to No. 2 Ohio State.

Penn State coach James Franklin stated his team’s case after Saturday night’s win, but also made it clear he and his team won’t be moping their way to Pasadena, Calif., where the conference champion is slotted if it is not chosen for the playoff.

“We’ve got great options in front of us,” he said. “I hear people on TV talking about they feel like maybe the playoff has taken away from the bowls. 

“Are you kidding me? The Rose Bowl? It doesn’t get a whole lot better than that.”

Report: Jordan Matthews (ankle) not expected to play vs. Bengals

Report: Jordan Matthews (ankle) not expected to play vs. Bengals

Jordan Matthews will not play Sunday against the Bengals after missing practice all week with an ankle sprain, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Matthews is the Eagles' leading receiver with 57 catches for 686 yards and three touchdowns. The team has called him a game-time decision.

Second-year receiver Nelson Agholor will reportedly be inserted back into the lineup. If Matthews doesn't play the Eagles will have only four healthy receivers active on Sunday: Agholor, Dorial Green-Beckham and undrafted rookies Bryce Treggs and Paul Turner.