Is Domonic Brown Having a Good Year or Not?

Is Domonic Brown Having a Good Year or Not?

Even if the Phils ended up a .500 team or worse this season, I think I could be pretty OK with that if I was convinced by year end that Domonic Brown was gonna be a really good player for years to come. Talking to my dad about Dom recently, he hit the nail on the head: "He's Evan Turner." True: Like perhaps no other Philly athlete of recent years besides the Extraterrestrial, Dom tantalizes with his seemingly boundless ability, showing flashes that assure you of his inevitable superstardom, but spacing them out over 1-9, 2-12, 3-15-type stretches at the plate, and mixing them up with fielding and base-running blunders that make you wonder to what degree he really gets it.

I want to believe in Dom. I take a game like last night, where he laced an RBI triple and hit another couple balls hard on the nose, and I want to take it as evidence that he's turning the corner. But then I look at his actual line for the evening: 1-4, no walks--and think that if that's a particularly good game for Domonic, that's maybe not such a good thing. I want to be patient, to say he's still young and learning, but at age 25 (and he'll be 26 by season's end), he's not really all that young anymore, and if he can't do it this year--his first with uninterrupted opportunity to prove himself in the Phils' outfield--it just might not happen for Dom, at least not in Philly.

However, as there often is with Evan, there's an argument to be made that he's improving this year, that he's actually doing pretty well, that there's reason for encouragement. Is there? Let's take at the cases for the pro, the con, and the confusing:

DOMONIC BROWN IS HAVING A GOOD YEAR:

  • Slugging. Dom is leading the team in homers with eight, already easily a career high, and on pace to at least approach the "30-homer potential" that so many have long cited him having. His slugging percentage of .442 is also an unchallenged career high, and ranks third on the team, just barely behind Ryan Howard's .444.
  • Staying in the lineup. Partly due to a lack of competition here, but Domonic's role as a starter in the outfield was never a certain thing going into this season, and it was previously thought that the return of Delmon Young could result in a diminished role for Dom. But he's played in all but one of the team's games this year, ranking fourth on the team in plate appearances. The job is Brown's to lose, which is the first time you could say that about our prodigious young outfielder.

DOMONIC BROWN IS NOT HAVING A GOOD YEAR:

  • Getting on base. Any criticism of Dom's play this year has to start with (and be mostly comprised of) this. His batting average certainly isn't great to begin with, a paltry .248, though remarkably, that still rates as the career high from Dom's three seasons in Philly. That's not really the problem--the problem is that he doesn't walk anymore. In fact, in the month of May, he's taken zero walks, after taking a decent-but-unremarkable nine in April. Dom's batting eye used to be one of his greatest assets as a hitter, but now, perhaps in the name of being More Aggressive at the plate, he's an even bigger OBP sinkhole (.290) than Ryan Howard (.297) or even Delmon Young (.304). It's a disturbing trend, to say the least.
  • Baserunning. He's not having a particularly miserable year here, but wasn't speed supposed to be an asset of our athletic young outfielder? He didn't even attempt a stolen base--partly because of lack of opportunities due to that miserable OBP, sure, but even still--until last week against the Reds, a solid quarter of the way into the season. FanGraphs, which originally rated his speed at 75/100 during his debut year with the Phils, now rates it at just 64, another disturbing trend for a player who hasn't even reached his supposed baseball prime age yet.

DOMONIC BROWN IS MAYBE HAVING A GOOD YEAR?

  • Fielding. Nobody's going to be confusing Brown with Jason Heyward in the field just yet, but by his own standards, Domonic's defense has been...better, anyway. FanGraphs still has his UZR as being a pretty subpar -5.5, but he ranks fifth in the NL in assists and fielding percentage from left field, and Baseball-Reference has him breaking even in runs saved per year (after posting a -23 and -16 in the last two seasons). Baby steps.
  • Righties/Lefties. Dom's got it a little backwards this year at the plate--despite being a left-handed hitter, he's done a disproportionately large chunk of his damage against lefties, batting like an All-Star (.293/.302/.585) against southpaws. But of course, that means that he's been fairly brutal against righties, where about 80% of his ABs come from, posting just a .248/.286/.395 against them. No idea what to make of that--Dom's career splits still have him being more effective against righties, so it probably won't continue, but it's hard to tell which of the two averages will regress to the mean first, and which will have a greater impact on his overall line when it does.

In the end, it's still hard to say with Dom. It's easy to get on him for his walk-less May--seriously, how the hell do you get 23 days into a month without a single free pass?--but that non-existent walk rate has come with the best hitting month of his career, with five dingers and a .515 slugging percentage, so maybe it's a worthwhile trade-off? Meanwhile, Baseball-Reference has him breaking into the positives with his WAR (0.4) for the first time in his career--though according to FanGraphs, he's still at a -0.2.

In the end, as with Evan Turner, it's probably still too early to tell with Domonic Brown. It's always too early to tell. We just have to keep watching and waiting, whether we like it or not.

Eagles Film Review: Carson Wentz's improvisation pays off big

Eagles Film Review: Carson Wentz's improvisation pays off big

Carson Wentz takes pride in not letting plays die easily. 

In Sunday’s 34-3 win over the Steelers, one play he didn’t let die ended up being the back-breaker in the blowout. 

We’re, of course, talking about the 73-yard touchdown pass to Darren Sproles at the 13:08 mark in the third quarter. Coming into the second half, the Eagles had a 10-point lead, but this touchdown pushed it to a 20-3 advantage and the rout was on. This play was a tone-setter (see story)

“That’s something that we talk about a lot,” Wentz said after the game. “We always say that a play is never dead. I like to make plays when we need to and everyone just does a great job of getting open in those situations.”

This was the first big off-schedule play Wentz has hit during his three weeks as the team’s starter, but the signs were there. In the Chicago game, there were several times where he showed his ability to extend plays. We broke them down in a film review last week (see story).

Throughout the week, Wentz had been compared to Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. One of the reasons was their shared ability to extend plays and make something happen. Big Ben showed his ability in the first quarter and almost connected on a huge touchdown pass to Markus Wheaton in the back of the end zone, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in. 

When Wentz got his shot later in the game, Sproles was able to pull it in, then make something happen with his feet. 

“I saw Carson scrambling this way,” head coach Doug Pederson said. “Darren was literally right in front of me and when I saw him wheel, my first reaction was to find the sideline to see if he stepped out to be quite honest.  He hadn’t, and Carson just — it was like in slow motion — floated that ball up the sideline and Darren did the rest from there. It was a tremendous play from those two individuals. I guess the last thing I did is I always look back to make sure there are no flags on the ground on those long plays.”

There were no flags. Touchdown. Game. 

Let’s take a closer look at the play: 

Wentz is in shotgun with Sproles in the backfield with him. The Eagles come out with three-wide on the far side of the field and a lot of space on the near side. 

Stephon Tuitt, who actually had a pretty good game against the Eagles, takes this route to the quarterback. When he gets to left guard Allen Barbre, Barbre either didn’t see him or didn’t react quickly enough. 

While Sproles is still running his short out, Wentz feels the pressure and is able to step up through the hole created by Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks. As soon as he makes it through, Wentz still has his eyes downfield. 

Now Wentz is through the hole and sees Sproles finishing his out-route. This is when Wentz, on the run, motions to Sproles to take off. This is something we’ve seen Wentz do a few times during his three weeks as Eagles quarterback. 

Wentz was left with a tough decision here. He could have run for 10, maybe even 15 yards. It was wide open, but he decided to try to make a play with his arm instead. 

“I always want to be a thrower first,” he said. “Even when a play breaks down, I’m always looking [to throw] because that’s where the big plays are happening. If I scramble I might get 5, 10, 15, 20 yards, but I’m not that fast. I always want to get it to the guys that can make plays. We always want to make plays when they’re there, and that’s what happened.”

With the line of scrimmage at the 27, Wentz has enough awareness to run horizontally to make sure he didn’t cross. And as soon as Pittsburgh safety Mike Mitchell takes that first step toward him, Wentz sees how much room Sproles has to work with. 

Ryan Shazier, who was covering Sproles on the play, froze and then started to step toward Wentz too. He said he thought the quarterback crossed the line of scrimmage, but Wentz was aware enough to stay behind.  

Once Sproles catches the ball in open space, he begins to do Sproles things. Defensive back Sean Davis took a bad angle on him and once he gets close, the veteran turns it inside. Davis said he was trying to buy time for the rest of his defense to get there and stop Sproles. It didn’t work. 

“Man, it’s Sproles!” receiver Nelson Agholor said. “Did you think he was going to get tackled?”

While he’s blocking downfield, Dorial Green-Beckham actually trips himself up and does a somersault. But it didn’t matter — Sproles didn’t need a great block. He pretty much did it himself. 

“Anytime that you can put it in the hands of [Sproles] something special can happen on any play, and he did the rest of it,” Wentz said. 

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Travis Konecny leaves impression with vets in Flyers' preseason win

Travis Konecny leaves impression with vets in Flyers' preseason win

ALLENTOWN, Pa. — Michael Raffl had just finished playing alongside Travis Konecny, the 19-year-old kid that has Flyers fans abuzz about the now and future.

Yet for Raffl, he wasn’t thinking forward. Instead, he was looking back.

“Yeah, well, I couldn’t do that when I was 19, that’s for sure,” the 27-year-old said smiling, eyes wide open. “No, it’s impressive, he’s a really, really good hockey player.”

Konecny had that resounding affect Wednesday night at the PPL Center, recording a goal and an assist while leading the Flyers to a 2-0 preseason win over the Devils (see 10 observations).

He dazzled with speed and shiftiness.

He showed off vision and smarts.

When he touched the puck, he had everyone’s attention.

Paired with Raffl and Brayden Schenn in a game featuring mostly prospects, the 2015 first-round pick made the molding of Ron Hextall’s roster that much more difficult. With the general manager looking on, the highly touted winger started fast before making his imprint during a span of just four minutes and 34 seconds in the second period.

First, he redirected a blast by Andrew MacDonald to hand the Flyers a 1-0 lead. Not long after, the 5-foot-10, 184-pounder deceived the defense to find Raffl right in front off a backdoor pass for a 2-0 advantage.

“We had a cycle play going and he had a nice fake up top there and I was just going to the net,” Raffl said. “Somehow I was all by myself and he saw me, put a perfect pass on my tape and I just went around the goalie and put it in.”

Following his first goal, Konecny nearly tacked on another less than a minute later when he appeared to hit the crossbar on a shot. He also flirted with a few more assists.

“I think I just played relaxed,” Konecny said. “I came into the game tonight trying not to do too much and just keep things simple. The main thing for me was getting pucks out of the zone, so I think I did that well tonight and hopefully I can keep building on it.”

Relieving pucks from the zone isn’t a real problem when you possess the speed and skill of Konecny, who racked up 101 points last season at the junior level.

At just 19, that’s where he’ll have to return if he doesn’t crack the Flyers’ roster.

With cuts already made and more coming, that sometimes is on Konecny’s mind.

“It weighs on you a little bit. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t thinking about it and it’s definitely the time I need to step up and make sure I’m playing good hockey,” Konecny said. “And just earning another day — that’s just the way I’m looking at it. Every day I wake up and just work hard and move forward from there.

“I think everyone comes into camp and tries to give them (management) a reason not to send you back and make it hard on them.”

Wednesday night didn’t hurt his chances.

“He played a good hockey game,” Flyers head coach Dave Hakstol said. “Had an impact offensively. He did a pretty good job. There’s some youthful mistakes in there, but overall, he had a real good night tonight playing with Raf and Schenner.”

Placing Konecny with two capable NHL forwards offered the Canadian an opportunity to prove what he could do if he was in fact on the big club.

“We played well together,” Konecny said. “I think from the start we just had a lot of communication, we talked in the room, in warmups, we all knew what we were going to do throughout the game and in certain scenarios.”

If anything, Konecny left an impression on Raffl.

“He’s a very smart player,” Raffl said. “Once he has the puck, he makes smart decisions with it. It was very easy to play with him out there. He plays a mature game and I really enjoyed it.”

Time will tell if more enjoyment is in store come Oct. 14.

Loose pucks
Anthony Stolarz and Alex Lyon combined for the shutout. Stolarz started and made 11 saves over 29:23, while Lyon played 30:37 and stopped seven shots. “I like both of our guys tonight,” Hakstol said. “Stolie did a good job, he made a difference in this game in the first 10 minutes, those two or three really good saves there. Then Alex came in halfway through, which isn’t an easy thing to do and was ready to go and did his job.” … Schenn, MacDonald and defensive prospect Robert Hagg finished with an assist apiece. … With the roster currently standing at 49, the Flyers expect to make 15 cuts on Thursday. … Defenseman Nick Schultz is out four to seven days with a lower-body injury suffered in Tuesday night’s preseason game. ... The Flyers are off Thursday before likely practicing Friday ahead of Saturday's preseason game at 7 p.m. against the Bruins at the Wells Fargo Center.