We have some interesting conversations at work. This one happened the other day. Some of us were discussing the Rookie of the Year race and whether Nerlens Noel has enough time to catch and pass Andrew Wiggins to win the award.
The question was put to Jim Lynam. Rather than returning an answer, he volleyed a question back our way: “Forget about the award,” he said. “The question is, if they were in the same draft today, who would you pick?” That started another debate that consumed us for a while.
Around this time about a year ago, Wiggins was the object of every breathless area fanboy’s desire — a long, athletic wing with huge upside. He was a fantasy. Fans and media members dreamed up scenarios — potential trades and hypothetical situations where he fell to the Sixers in the draft — and imagined him in a Sixers uniform. We dispatched cameras to catch a glimpse of him when he came to town for his pre-draft workout. It was intense for a while and a little strange.
Wiggins went first overall in 2014. He was shipped from Cleveland to Minnesota in the Kevin Love trade. Wiggins has been excellent with the Timberwolves this year. After Jabari Parker went down with an ACL injury, Wiggins assumed the role of alpha rookie and frontrunner for the ROY. He leads all rookies in scoring at 16.3 points per game. (Langston Galloway is second, almost five points per game off the pace.) Wiggins is shooting 43.6 percent from the field and a solid 75.3 percent from the line (on 5.2 attempts per game). He’s shooting 32.2 percent from three-point range. That’s not terrific, but it’s good enough for 12th among rookies.
Also among rookies: Wiggins is fifth in rebounds per game, sixth in steals and 12th in assists. He’s been OK on the defensive end, and you can see how, with time, he’s going to develop into a two-way terror. He’s 20. Won’t turn 21 until next February. He plays one of the thinnest positions in the league. He was very much worthy of the first overall pick, and he remains the favorite for the Rookie of the Year award. If he wins it, he’ll deserve it.
But as Lynam suggested, winning the ROY is a different proposition than wondering which player you’d rather have long-term. Finding a quality wing is hard to do. It’s why the good ones get huge contracts. But while quality small forwards are rare (especially young ones with massive upside), so are quality frontcourt players who can protect the rim (especially young ones with massive upside).
Noel’s post-All-Star break numbers are silly: 13.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.3 spg, 2.4 bpg. He leads all rookies in rebounds, blocks and steals per game. He’s the only player in the NBA — rookie or veteran — to be in the top 10 in blocks and steals per game. And he’s already become one of the most disruptive defensive players around the rim in the league. Opponents are shooting just 45.1 percent at the rim against him. That’s an incredible achievement, and it places him among the very best rim protectors in the league. Actually, using the metric of opponents’ field goal percentage at the rim, it places Noel ahead of guys like Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, DeMarcus Cousins, Timofey Mozgov, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside and Andre Drummond, among many others. It’s so hard to find players of that caliber, and Noel has already joined their company in his first season in the NBA.
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Noel turns 21 this month. Imagine what kind of defensive player he could become with some seasoning. He’s 6-11 and currently listed at a generous 228 pounds. He’ll eventually grow into his body and fill it out. In four or five years, if he adds 15 or 20 pounds, he could become one of the very best paint protectors in the league — a top-five guy on that front, someone perennially mentioned as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Offensively, he still needs to work on his game. As it stands, he’s a threat to finish any lob thrown his way, and he’s quick up and down the floor. He’s gotten much better as the season has gone along, and he’s shown flashes where you can imagine him becoming something at the offensive end. He’s also a good passer for a big man. He has a real feel for keeping the ball moving. That’s so often a struggle for a young frontcourt player.
So which one? Wiggins or Noel for the long haul? It’s an interesting and difficult hypothetical. Lynam, if you’re wondering, went with Noel. I’ll still take Wiggins. He’s such a dynamic offensive player, and he has the athleticism to become a really good defender. But it’s close. It’s really close.