Kristaps Porzingis
Position: PF
Height/Weight: 6-11/220
Latvia
Among the international men of mystery expected to be lottery picks in this year’s draft, Kristaps Porzingis probably falls somewhere on the spectrum between Emmanuel Mudiay (lots of questions) and Mario Hezonja (bigger body of work, more of a known commodity). Porzingis is only 19. He won’t turn 20 until August. He considered playing in the NBA sooner, but he withdrew his name from last year’s draft at the final moment. It was probably a wise decision.
By staying in Europe another season, Porzingis made himself a certain lottery pick. Now the question is how high he’ll go. You’d be hard pressed to find a mock draft that doesn’t have him in the top 10. And in a recent chat, ESPN draft guru Chad Ford (the basketball Mel Kiper, but without the cool Count Chocula hair) hinted that the Lakers might consider Porzingis with the second pick. That feels a skosh high, but not by much. Also the Lakers are unhinged, so anything is possible.
Grantland is doing a three-part video series on Porzingis. It's worth checking out.
Strengths
He’s nearly seven-feet tall. Generally with someone that tall who makes the NBA, you get a rim-protector. Now and then, you get a stretch four who can shoot. Rarely do you get both. Porzingis can do both. In 50 games this year for Sevilla (split between Spanish ACB and EuroCup), Porzingis averaged right around one three-pointer and one block per game. He was a better distance shooter in EuroCup (45.9 percent) than ACB play (31.3 percent) on about the same number of shots, but he played in almost double as many ACB games as EuroCup outings.
Those are the kinds of skills that advanced metrics tend to favor. Certain WARP models have him in the top three.
Weaknesses
So if he’s not even 20 years old, and he’s tall, and he blocks shots, and he shoots threes, why isn’t he a lock to be a top-three pick? Because there are some issues. To start, he’s thin. Even Nerlens Noel thinks Porzingis needs to eat a sandwich. But, like Noel, Porzingis is young and the weight/muscle thing is generally something that can be fixed with time and an eating/workout adjustment.
NBA
The bigger concerns with Porzingis are his rebounding and passing. Despite being almost seven feet tall (did we mention that he’s almost seven feet?), he didn’t exactly dominate the glass in Europe. Porzingis played 35 ACB games a year ago, but his per-40 rebound numbers still weren’t eye-popping (7.4). Same thing this year on the per-40 front: ACB (8.9), EuroCup (7.9). But maybe that was a function of what he was asked to do, and placed in a different system you’d see an uptick. Maybe.
The main issue here is his passing. He’s not good at it. Or at least he didn’t do it very often. Porzingis averaged barely more than one assist per game this season. You’ll remember that the Sixers’ ball movement blossomed this year and they finished with the eighth-best assist percentage. But maybe Porzingis’s non-existant passing was yet another function of his day-to-day work requirements. Maybe he wouldn’t be a ball-stopper in the NBA, where movement is valued and black holes who don’t/can’t pass have become far less fashionable than they were during the iso era. Maybe.
How he’d fit with the Sixers
There were whispers about the Sixers being interested in him a year ago. But the Sixers and Sam Hinkie see everyone play in person, so there will always be whispers linking the Sixers to various players — especially various European players. That was also a year ago, before the Sixers drafted Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, and before they shipped Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee. A lot has changed.
A guy who’s nearly seven feet (it’s true), shoots threes and blocks shots has to be interesting to the Sixers. But the fit here seems imperfect. Between Noel, Embiid and Saric, folding another young frontcourt player into the mix might be overkill. Then again, the Sixers could always move one of the aforementioned players to make room for Porzingis if they like him that much. Porzingis, it should be noted, is scheduled to hold a private workout in Las Vegas on June 12.
NBA comparison
Depends. If you’re optimistic, you might see a shot-blocking Dirk Nowitzki. If you’re not so sunny, you’re probably concerned that he’s the next can’t-miss European to miss — another descendant from the disappointing gene pool that gave us guys like Darko Milicic and Jan Vesely. (I’m optimistic, though I’m not in the shot-blocking Dirk camp. That’s a European too far.)
Draft Projection
He’s shooting up draft boards. Top eight right now. Could be top five by the time the draft rolls around.