The Joel Embiid situation went boom. The Sixers issued a statement. The Joel Embiid situation went boom again. The Sixers remained silent, with the notable exception of Scott O’Neil taking to Twitter to kinda/sorta address the latest report about Embiid’s navicular bone being re-broken.
(A quick but necessary aside: It’s a hyper complicated situation for all sorts of reasons, including the CBA. But there’s certainly some sort of middle solution between no and full disclosure.)
For a guy who hasn’t played an NBA game yet, Embiid gets a lot of attention. (He can walk and chew Chinese food, though not necessarily at the same time.) And with good reason. He has become — right or wrong, fair or not – the human representation of the Sam Hinkie plan, a 21-year-old, surgically-altered debate point used in heated arguments and counter arguments about the overarching and incessant rebuild conversation. However you feel about the Sixers, the fact that Embiid will miss a second professional season because of a second procedure is an inarguable blow to The Process. The question is how much of a blow? More specifically, what is Embiid’s value at the moment given everything we know and, perhaps more importantly, everything we don’t?
The Sixers are obviously playing the long game here. They will take every precaution with Embiid and hope that another surgery and more time convalescing will (eventually) lead to a productive career. But they’ve also, smartly and unsurprisingly, hedged their bet. After the latest draft but before the Sixers admitted Embiid will undergo a second procedure, Hinkie was asked whether Embiid’s health was a factor in selecting Jahlil Okafor third overall. If Embiid wasn’t a medical mystery, would they still have taken Okafor? Hinkie said he hoped they would’ve had the courage to do it, but he admitted it was a hard question “because I knew, and it’s hard to unknow where things stood with Joel.”
They knew where things stood with Embiid. Okafor fell to them. Okafor was a natural insurance policy. Makes sense, particularly on the indemnification front. But given the injury history and the attendant uncertainty moving forward, what kind of value does Embiid currently represent for the organization?
As recently as two months ago, Embiid would have been the team’s primary asset. His agent and O’Neil said Embiid was scheduled to participate in summer league. And behind the scenes, key members of the franchise drooled about how skilled he looked on the practice court. Then all that hope for the future gave way to the weight of Embiid’s current reality.
If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he’s worth “a real protected first.” When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: “No.” Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he’d go “back end of the lottery, maybe” for Embiid. He called it a “dice roll” for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it’s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It’s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.
NBA
As part of this purely academic exercise, I ranked the Sixers’ top-five assets for the immediate future. Honorable mention in no particular order: Dario Saric, Nik Stauskas, Sauce Castillo, 2016 Thunder first-round pick (top-15 protected), the giant T-shirt cannon (which, incidentally, remains the best contribution to date by the Adam Aron/Doug Collins/Tony DiLeo/Rod Thorn administration), Robert Covington, future Kings first-round pick and Furkan Aldemir’s summer league-length hair/beard combo.
5A. Embiid
Two months ago he would have been No. 1. Now his future is very much in doubt. Sad face. Whatever happens, we’ll always have the dunk and the duck.
5B. 2016 Heat first-round pick (top-10 protected)
Obviously rather have a healthy Embiid than a pick outside the top 10. But the pick becomes unprotected if it doesn’t convey after this season. Maybe Dwyane Wade leaves after this year, the Heat combust and this pick is suddenly hot. Put another way: With the injury, the second surgery, the uncertainty, and the weakened bargaining position, a mid-lottery pick might be the most you could fetch for Embiid at the moment.
4. Nerlens Noel
Still raw offensively. Still needs to polish his free throw shooting. But he really improved as his rookie year continued. He’s a good passer for a young big, and he’s already a major rim protector. Opponents shot just 45.4 percent at the rim against Noel, according to NBA.com. It was a lower/better mark than what opponents shot against Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond, among others. And, unlike Embiid, he’s healthy.
3. Jahlil Okafor
Has areas to improve. But there’s plenty to like offensively. After a half or full season, could easily be first on this list. He’s a beast in the post and a good passer. And, unlike Embiid, he’s healthy.
2. 2016 Lakers first-round pick (top-three protected)
It’s also top-three protected next year. After that, it’s unprotected. There are crazy people who think this will be a bad pick that ends up somewhere in the mid-to-late first round. No way walking injury/angry old man Kobe Bryant wills a team of unproven young talent, Roy Hibbert and Swaggy P to the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference. No chance. Happy to take that bet right now and forever. The team dynamic is already somewhere on the spectrum between nervous and where-will-Kobe-bury-their-lifeless-bodies? This should be a really good pick.
1. 2016 Sixers (or Kings) first-round pick
In the Sauce Castillo trade, the Sixers also got pick swap rights with Sacramento. The Kings might have a more talented roster this year than last year, but they’re in the West. And they’re the Kings. And their best player can’t stand their head coach. At summer league, Boogie Cousins and George Karl sat across the arena from each other and basically tried to avoid one another — until they had a quick, awkward exchange. Should be a fun season. (Setting the over/under at the All-Star Break for when Boogie loses his composure in a game and pile drives Karl into the announcers’ table.) Just look at these guys. They’ll be a top-five League Pass team for implosion/drama purposes. Either the Kings will be bad, or the Sixers will be bad, or both, but this should be another high lottery pick.