Don't Write Off Andrew Bynum Just Yet

Don't Write Off Andrew Bynum Just Yet

Yeah, the news is pretty bad. With Saturday's revelation from GM Tony DiLeo that all timetables for Andrew Bynum's return—to the 76ers, to basketball activity, to a quasi-normal hair level—have been put on hold, it appears that most of our worst fears about Bynum have been confirmed (or at the very least, validated). Nothing is certain yet, but it's seeming more and more probable that all of the following are the case:

1. Andrew Bynum will very likely not play a single minute for the Philadelphia 76ers this regular season.

2. If the team makes the playoffs, Bynum will very likely not play with them in the post-season.

3. In the off-season, Bynum will very likely still land a high, possibly max-level contract in free agency, which the Sixers will have to decide whether to match and/or exceed without having seen him play in a year (and never for the 76ers).

4. If the Sixers do sign Bynum to a deal in the off-season, he'll very likely still be recovering from injury (or from the eventual season-ending surgery he might have later this year) and will not be ready opening day or for some time into the season.

5. If the Sixers do re-sign Bynum and he eventually does return to the lineup, there's no guarantee he will ever be fully healthy (or fully at the level he was playing at eight months ago), and he will very likely continue to miss significant chunks of playing time for the remainder of his career.


Yeah, it's like that. Yet even with all that said—and it's a whole lot to say, for sure—I'm still going to try to tell you why it's too early to close the book on Andrew Bynum as a Philadelphia 76er, and why the team very likely will and/or should pursue re-signing him in the off-season, despite all the countless risks and red flags.

First and foremost, forget about this season. It was never about this season. Now, that's a tough thing to swallow for those of us who have stuck through the team through the half-decade of post-Iverson mediocrity—four low-seed post-season appearances in five years, only one (injury-assisted) playoff series win—and were thinking that with Bynum's arrival, something was finally going to be different this year. The fanbase—what's left of it at this point—is fed up with all the averageness, and to be asked to be patient for another year isn't what anybody wants to hear.

But the goal in landing Bynum wasn't to compete for a championship in 2011-12. The goal was to grow a core that could eventually contend over the course of Bynum's five-year deal, after he hopefully re-signed with us in the off-season. With Bynum, Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young locked up (and Evan Turner likely to follow), the Sixers hoped to have a consistent team in place that would have several years of playing together while each player was still in their basketball prime—Bynum would just be turning 26 at the start of the '13-'14 season, and he'd be the oldest of the quartet—and with some growing together, and a couple nice complementary pieces, could be a real threat in the Eastern Conference for at least three or four seasons.

So regardless of what happens this year—whether Bynum never plays a minute, whether the Sixers felt they were dealt damaged goods by L.A., whether they're still miffed at him for going bowling without written permission—none of it should matter a lick when it comes to re-signing him in the off-season. The only important thing is what they think Bynum will be capable of moving forward, and if they think he'll still be able to be healthy and productive, then they shouldn't hold any of this season's travails against him.

Of course, that's a big, big if. It's possible that the myriad injuries Bynum has suffered through this season will all eventually heal and not re-appear, but given that the injuries came outside of game action (and given Andrew's prior history with leg injuries, causing him to miss over 15 games in all but two of his seven NBA seasons before this one), not too many betting men would wager on that happening. More likely, leg issues will plague him for his entire career in some form or another.

But if the Sixers check Bynum out in the off-season—and hopefully do a more thorough job than they did the last off-season—and conclude that there's no specific reason to believe he'll never be healthy again, then I think they'll still probably be better off rolling the dice with him again. Even if Bynum's seven years in LA were injury-plagued, he was around enough to help the Lakers win a pair of championships, and establish himself as the league's second-best seven-plus-footer. If he could give the Sixers an average of 55 healthy games a year for five years, and be around to play in four of the post-seasons, I think we still take that in a heartbeat.

Because here's the thing: The Sixers aren't getting another Andrew Bynum anytime soon. It was practically a miracle that they got him in the first place (even if it doesn't feel particularly miraculous at the moment), and to expect another All-Star caliber center still in his best years to become available to the Sixers in the next five years is decidedly impractical.

There's only three ways to get a player like Bynum (or any other player, for that matter)—by trading for him, drafting him, or picking him up in free agency. Even if a Bynum-level big somehow emerged on the trade market, the Sixers no longer have the assets to trade for one, having given up their last two first-round draftees to get Drew the first time around, and dealing a couple future first-rounders in the off-season as well. Unless Arnett Moultrie grows into the second coming of Serge Ibaka, or unless the team is willing to part with Evan Turner, the team won't have either the draft picks or the cheap, young players to package with a Spencer Hawes or Jason Richardson to make a blockbuster deal work. Drafting another Andrew Bynum isn't impossible, but it's going to be hard to do as long as the team keeps picking just inside or outseide oft he lottery, as they're likely to do with this set of players—and I don't see the team committing to tanking for one as long as Doug Collins is the coach, certainly.

That leaves one remaining avenue: Free agency. Could the Sixers get a big of Bynum's caliber on the open market? They could make a run at Al Jefferson or Josh Smith in the off-season, but neither fit the team's needs as well as a healthy Bynum, and both might require clearing some cap space (as well as declining to re-sign the likes of Dorell Wright and/or Nick Young) to do so. And regardless of who they target, with the CBA rules the way they are and with Philadelphia not a particularly attractive market to prospective free agents, the Sixers will always be fighting against the tide to land a big fish in free agency—as opposed to with Andrew Bynum, where Philly should have the inside track in re-signing him by being able to offer him more money than anybody else.

And if a Bynum-caliber player doesn't become available to the Sixers in the next few years, then what? We can use our cap space to plug little holes in the lineup—a backup point guard here, a defensive wing there—but as just about anybody inside or outside the NBA will tell you, only 15-20 players in the league really matter. Only those 15 or so players make bad teams good and make good teams great, and without at least one of those guys, you can only scrap your way to so many wins on grit and toughness and teamwork. Star power almost always wins in the end, and if all the Sixers do is solidify their team around their current core, the best they can hope for is to be the Atlanta Hawks of the last five years, winning about 50 games every year and getting demolished in the second round.

And here's the other thing—the Sixers are really close to being really good. Jrue Holiday appears to have taken the next step and then some, cementing his status as a top-flight point guard in the Eastern Conference and likely elbowing his way into All-Star contention with last night's dominant 33-point, 13-assist performance against the Suns. Right behind him is Evan Turner, leading the Sixers in rebounding from the wing, improving his efficiency as a scorer and playmaker, and seeming to find a way to contribute every game, even when his shot is off. If both those guys continue on their current development paths, it's not hard to see them emerging as the second and third-best players on a contending team a year or two down the line.

Surrounding them, the rest of the team appears to have fallen into place as well. Jason Richardson is the best deep threat the Sixers have had since Kyle Korver, if not longer. Thaddeus Young basically is who he is at this point, a solid, undersized power forward who'll chip in with scoring and rebounding every night but rarely dominate, but if he's your fourth or fifth best player, you're doing OK. Spencer Hawes is overpaid, but for a backup center, you could certainly do a lot worse. Lavoy Allen and Dorell Wright are quality rotation guys, and Nick Young is...well, he's Nick Young. There's a real team here, one that can be good (and very possibly even better than good) for a long time.

But it all revolves around Andrew Bynum. He's the missing piece, the guy who makes everybody else's role on the team make sense. With him we're a complete unit, without him we're undersized and out-rebounded and perpetually one scorer short. With him on the sideline, someone on the team is always getting overexposed—whether it be Kwame or Spencer getting too many minutes, Jrue or Evan taking too many shots, or Thaddeus or Lavoy getting beaten for too many rebounds. This team needs Andrew Bynum, or someone like him, to be great—and for better or worse, there aren't too many players like Andrew Bynum out there for the taking in the NBA.

So the team might have to take a chance. Hell, it might have to take a really, really big chance. I'm not advising they threw caution to the wind, mind you—if Bynum's legs are just done, never to recover, then get their medical team to ascertain that information and send him merrily on his way. But if they take a look at him next off-season and see another calculated risk...I'd hope they think long and hard about taking it, even if the odds are decent it blows up in their faces. For a franchise that has been slightly above-average for so long, I think the chance of being great is worth more than the certainty of being decent.

Of course, maybe this is all premature. Maybe Bynum recovery goes better than planned, he helps lead the Sixers on a deep playoff run, and all agree that an extension in the off-season is for the best. But if you're skeptical of that, and you probably should be, I hope you're not totally writing him off as a sunk cost just yet. We need him too bad, and worked too hard to get him, to just let him get away that easily. And if the Sixers do let Bynum walk, and fail to get another big of his equal in the off-season, I hope it triggers a full-on rebuild. At that point, I'll probably be in favor of any move that allows us to escape another seventh or eighth seed.

Today's Lineup: Rupp and Franco out, Howard, Ruiz in

Today's Lineup: Rupp and Franco out, Howard, Ruiz in

Going for the series win today, Pete Mackanin has shaken up the lineup.

Maikel Franco is still out. After taking a pitch off the wrist on Friday, Franco was listed as day to day with a sore wrist (see story). Andres Blanco will again hit and play third.

Both Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz crack the lineup today. Ruiz has caught Vince Velasquez just once this season, a five inning shutout with 10 strikeouts vs. the Marlins on May 17. 

Ruiz replaced Cameron Rupp in the third inning of Saturday's game as a precaution after Rupp took a pitch off the helmet. (see story)

After being on fire for much of the past month, Peter Bourjos has posted consecutive 0 for 5 nights in the leadoff spot. He will drop down to ninth today, allowing another hot hitter, Cesar Hernandez to hit leadoff.

Odubel Herrara will remain in the two-spot, where he has looked resurgent in this series, going 6 for 9 with four runs scored. 

Much like Bourjos, Cody Asche has not yet recorded a hit in this series and will be lowered to the seven-hole, while Freddy Galvis will hit sixth.

Velasquez takes the mound for the Phillies today. In his four starts since returning from a biceps injury in early June, Velasquez has been arguably the team's best pitcher. In those starts, the flamethrower has been going deeper into ball games than earlier this season, averaging six innings per start, while allowing just five runs during that span. 

Here is today's lineup:

1. Cesar Hernandez 2B
2. Odubel Herrara CF
3. Andres Blanco 3B
4. Ryan Howard 1B
5. Carlos Ruiz C
6. Freddy Galvis SS
7. Coday Asche LF
8. Peter Bourjos RF
9. Vince Velasquez P

Reuben Frank's way-too-early 2016 Eagles predictions

Reuben Frank's way-too-early 2016 Eagles predictions

Will offensive linemen Jason Peters and Jason Kelce bounce back from disappointing seasons? Who will the Eagles’ top cornerback be? How many games will Carson Wentz start? Will the Eagles win a playoff game for the first time since 2008?

We take our best shot at these questions and many others facing the Eagles in our way-too-early 2016 predictions.

See you in the comments section!

1. I’ll start with Zach Ertz. He caught 75 passes for 853 yards last year, but I feel like he can do so much more. Sam Bradford and Ertz really clicked late last season, connecting 35 times for 450 yards the last four games of the year. Nobody can keep that up for an entire season, but I think this is finally the huge breakout season we’ve been expecting from Ertz since he got here in 2013.

THE PREDICTION: 90 catches for 1,089 yards.

2. Staying on offense, much has been made of Kelce’s sub-par season in 2015. It was strange to see Kelce, coming off a Pro Bowl season, apparently healthy and in the prime of his career, struggle the way he did. But I still think Kelce is an elite center. Yeah, he’s a little undersized, but he was undersized when he dominated in 2013 and made the Pro Bowl in 2014. He succeeds when he keeps his technique and uses his strength and leverage to overcome his lack of bulk. I think Kelce returns to form.

THE PREDICTION: A second Pro Bowl in three years for Kelce.

3. Sticking with the offensive line, I see Jason Peters also rebounding in 2016. Nobody benefited less than Peters from Chip Kelly’s full-speed, non-stop practices. His body broke down and when he was healthy enough to start, he often wasn’t healthy enough to finish. He made another Pro Bowl, but it was really a lost season for Peters. But with the hurry-up offense gone and a head coach who promises to take it easy on the older guys the way Reid did, there’s no reason Peters shouldn’t rebound.

THE PREDICTION: Peters returns to form and continues his late-career Hall of Fame push with his ninth Pro Bowl in 10 years, the only exception being the 2012 season he missed while rehabbing his torn Achilles.

4. I know he’s No. 3 now, but I’m just going on common sense, which says that if Sam Bradford gets hurt or gets benched, Carson Wentz and not Chase Daniel will replace him. Imagine if it’s Week 13 and Bradford hobbles off the field and Daniel – who has one career touchdown pass in six NFL seasons – jogs out to replace him? It would not be pretty. I say Wentz starts the last four games this year and plays fairly well.

THE PREDICTION: Wentz completes 61 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

5. I think Jordan Matthews is a good, solid, functional NFL wide receiver, but I don’t think there is a star in this wide receiver group. The Eagles last year were the only NFL team with just one wide receiver with 30 receptions, the first time that’s happened in 26 years (Cris Carter was the only one in 1989). And honestly, I don’t see the situation improving that much. Maybe Nelson Agholor or Josh Huff or Rueben Randle will surprise me, but I just feel like this wide receiving corps doesn’t have the oomph it needs to really compete at a high level.

THE PREDICTION: Matthews catches another 80 to 90 passes but nobody else emerges as a big-time second wide receiving threat, and the Eagles once again go into the offseason desperate for an over-the-top threat like DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

6. Moving to defense, I think when all is said and done, Eric Rowe will emerge as the Eagles’ No. 1 cornerback. I wonder about Leodis McKelvin’s ability at 31 years old to run the way a corner has to in a division with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant. Think of some Eagles corners who were 31 and older. Nnamdi. Charles Dimry. Roynell Young and Herm Edwards at the end. The only one who played at a high level at that age was Troy Vincent, and Leodis McKelvin is not Troy Vincent. I think Rowe will have his ups and downs, but, by the end of the year, he’ll be a solid NFL starter.

THE PREDICTION: Rowe leads the Eagles with five interceptions.

7. The Eagles have a lot of different guys who can rush the passer, and in Jim Schwartz’s scheme, there should be plenty of opportunities for them to attack the quarterback. Two years ago, Connor Barwin had 14 ½ sacks and Vinny Curry had 9 and last year Fletcher Cox had 9 ½ sacks and Brandon Graham had a career-high 6 ½. Now, this is a new world, with a 4-3 defense, and nobody is quite sure how all the pieces will fit together. But I do think the Eagles will be among the NFL leaders in sacks.

THE PREDICTION: The Eagles had 37 sacks last year and averaged just 41 during the Bill Davis Era, but I say they get 50 this year, which they’ve only done once since 2003 – in 2011 under defensive coordinator Juan Castillo.

8. I’m less confident in the back seven, and I’m not convinced the Eagles have solved their pass defense issues. We’ve seen a lot of new faces come and go over the years – from DRC and Nnamdi to Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher – with nothing really changing. The Eagles are the only team in NFL history to allow 25 or more touchdown passes in seven straight years (after not allowing 25 passing TDs since 1989). Malcolm Jenkins is a beast, but a lot of question marks surround him in the defensive backfield.

THE PREDICTION: The Eagles extend their NFL record of allowing at least 25 touchdown passes to eight straight seasons.

9. This group of linebackers scares me. I feel like Mychal Kendricks has a ton of talent, but don’t think he’s ever put together the type of full season he’s capable of. I love what Jordan Hicks did the first half of last year, but I wonder if he can come close to repeating that or if he can stay healthy. Nigel Bradham? Not sure what he brings to the table. And behind that group there’s guys like Najee Goode, Deontae Skinner and Travis Long. There’s talent here, but it’s a precarious group.

THE PREDICTION: By the end of the season, only one of those three linebackers will still be in the starting lineup.

10. It’s silly to make a prediction for the season now, before we even know who’s on the team. But I’m going to do that anyway. I don’t think they’re that bad. But I don’t think they’re that good. I’m a Wentz guy and don’t think the Eagles are really going to accomplish anything substantial until Wentz is behind center. That said, I like Bradford more than most people. I think he’s an adequate NFL starter. But I don’t like his TD-INT ratio and don’t think he can generate enough points against good teams to get the Eagles beyond mediocre. I think the Eagles are missing the elite offensive weapons and defensive playmakers to be a playoff team. In this division, who knows? If the Eagles can go 4-2 in the division and scratch out five wins in their 10 games out of the gate, it could be enough to win the NFC East. But ultimately, I think they’ll fall short. Too many question marks. Too many areas that just aren’t good enough. Too many unknowns with Doug Pederson. The Eagles haven’t won a playoff game in seven years and I fear that number will increase to eight this year.

THE PREDICTION: Eagles go 7-9 this year and finish two games behind the Redskins in the NFC East.

Phillies-Pirates 5 things: Young flamethrowers duel in rubber match

Phillies-Pirates 5 things: Young flamethrowers duel in rubber match

Phillies (45-54) vs. Pirates (50-47)
1:35 p.m. on CSN

A poor start from Aaron Nola gave the Pirates the second game of this three-game set, so the series comes down to Sunday. Both teams will toss out one of their top young pitchers with Vince Velasquez going for the Phillies and Jameson Taillon for the Pirates. 

Five things to know before the Sunday afternoon tilt.

1. Re-examining the Phillies bullpen
With a week to go before the trade deadline, let's take a look at how the Phillies' bullpen has performed before it may lose a piece or two by Aug. 1. 

Over the last 30 days, the bullpen as a whole has been middle of the pack, ranking 17th in MLB with a 4.19 ERA but third in baseball with a 3.18 FIP (fielding-independent pitching). That indicates that the 'pen has done a good job of limiting walks and home runs while striking out enough batters and may just be the victim of bad batted ball luck.

In fact, the bullpen has the second-best walk rate (2.22 per nine innings) in MLB over the last month while it is sixth with a HR rate of 0.74 per nine inning. Could the bullpen be getting better and just need some better luck on balls in play? 

Now to the individual players. The three most intriguing players on the trade market are closer Jeanmar Gomez, set-up man Hector Neris and middle reliever David Hernandez. 

Gomez and Neris appear to have taken legitimate steps forward this year. Gomez has a 2.13 ERA over his last 12 games, spanning 12 2/3 innings. Neris meanwhile has a 2.31 ERA in his last 12 games and has struck out over one batter an inning during that span, continuing to excel with his splitter.

Hernandez, signed to possibly take the closer role in the offseason, hasn't quite hit the stride some would have hoped for. He has struck out 11 batters over his last 10 innings, but he has given up nine hits and six walks during that time, allowing more than 1.5 baserunners per inning. 

Edubray Ramos has been used a fair amount over the last four weeks, making 12 appearances. He has a high ERA to show for it (5.06) however despite showing good overall stuff.

2. Pitching duel of the future?
Both the Pirates and Phillies send two potential righty aces to the mound Sunday in hopes of taking the rubber match of the mid-July series. First, a look into Jameson Taillon, who the Pirates drafted 2nd overall in the 2010 MLB draft.

Once a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, Taillon missed all of 2014 and 2015 with Tommy John surgery and a sports hernia, respectively. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut in June and has become a solid part of the Pirates' rotation.

In his short time in the majors, he's made six starts, going 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA. He's walked just five batters in 34 innings. However, he's also given up four home runs and 35 hits. 

Similar to Saturday's starter, Tyler Glasnow, Taillon is a tall righty who can throw the ball in the upper 90s. At 6-foot-5, he's can be overpowering while bringing a strong curveball that he utilizes as his main off-speed pitch.

Opposing Taillon is arguably the Phillies' best starter this year. Velasquez was drafted in the second round of that same 2010 draft. As he has all season, he continues to overpower hitters with his velocity and repertoire, fanning 98 batters this year. His 3.15 ERA and eight wins are best among the Phillies' young starters.

His last start was his fourth since returning from the disabled list, and he has allowed two or fewer runs in each start. He allowed just one run to the Marlins on Tuesday, giving up three hits and four walks in seven innings. Pitching deep into games like he did vs. Miami is the next frontier for the 24-year-old flamethrower.

3. Appreciating Tommy Joseph's July
Since he was called up for his debut in May, Tommy Joseph has shown flashes of brilliance with the bat. 

However, June was rough for the rookie. He batted just .204 and walked just two times while striking out in 23 of his 96 plate appearances. Sure, he hit five home runs, but when he wasn't hitting for power, he was doing little else.

That has changed in his 15 games this July. He's already hit five homers in just over half the plate appearances and walked six times. The walks are key. He's never been one to draw all that many walks even in the minors, so it shows he may be taking another step in his development. 

In all, he has 17 hits and 10 runs scored in just 44 at-bats and 12 starts this month. He's raised his average to .264 and has a slugging percentage of .529.

He has not only shown that he can mash, which was already an assumption, but also that he can work at-bats and make things happen even when the ball isn't leaving the yard. He's looking more and more like building block.

4. Players to watch
Phillies: Cesar Hernandez has quietly hit over .300 in June and July, hitting single after single near the bottom of the order. His two hits and two RBIs pushed the Phillies ahead early in Saturday's loss.

Pirates: Josh Harrison, the opposing second baseman, has had the opposite situation in the last two months. After batting over .325 in April and May, he's hit .218 or worse in the last two months. His season average is down to .270 and his OPS is just .673.

5. This and that
• David Freese has the only prior plate appearance against Velasquez. He's 0 for 1 against him. No Phillies, as one could guess, have at-bats against Taillon in the majors.

• The Phillies haven't won a series against the Pirates since 2013. 

• Pirates closer Mark Melancon has a 1.10 ERA against the Phillies in 15 career appearances. It's his second best ERA against a team he's faced at least 10 times. (He has a 0.63 ERA against the Marlins in 16 games).