The Sixers Will Need More Luck Than They Deserve at the Lottery Tonight

The Sixers Will Need More Luck Than They Deserve at the Lottery Tonight

Tonight will be a fateful night for a number of teams at the 2013 Draft Lottery in New York, as David Stern will dramatically unveil a series of envelopes containing logos from crappy teams until just three lucky franchises remain, who will get to pick from the cream of the crop from this year's class at the draft on June 27th--thus setting off a series of crackpot conspiracy theories about how the system is rigged and how Patrick Ewing really should have gone to the Golden State Warriors back in '86.

In all likelihood, the Philadelphia 76ers will not be one of those teams. Their strong (and by strong I mean not always embarrassingly weak) end to the season meant that they climbed out of the league's bottom ten, and actually needed a strong surge from the Toronto Raptors to even finish with the 11th-worst record, meaning that ten teams have better odds of being selected in the lottery than they do. As Enrico recently broke down for you guys, the Sixers have no better than a 1.2% chance of nabbing any of the top 3 picks, and just a 0.8% chance of getting #1.

History is not on their side here--the '99 Hornets were the most recent team to grab a top three pick with odds that bad, grabbing franchise point guard Baron Davis, and you gotta go back to the '93 Magic for a team who got the #1 overall pick with a slot as low as the Sixers, when they landed Chris Webber back in '93. (Longtime Sixers fans will no doubt recall the team earning the #2 pick in that draft, with which they selected the immortal Shawn Bradley.)

And you know what? That's OK. The Sixers already cashed in at the lottery once in recent years, when they landed the #2 pick despite only having the sixth-best odds, drafting Evan Turner with the pick. Not only has Turner not panned out for us as we'd hope a second-overall selection would, but the more spiritual and/or superstitious contingent of the Liberty Ballers fanbase could reasonably argue that the karma we used up getting that pick ended up biting us in the 'fro with the whole Andrew Bynum debacle. Lucking out a second time (with even-worse odds) could result in the Wells Fargo Center being attacked by a rove of ice zombie Hip Hops at the season-opener next year.

Besides, this really isn't the draft for pushing our luck like that anyway. The consensus top guys--Kentucky big Nerlens Noel, Kansas shooting guard Ben McLemore, Georgetown swingman Otto Porter--are all guys with question marks or limited ceilings, lacking the slam-dunk obviousness of a Blake Griffin or an Anthony Davis. Chances are pretty good that at least one of those teams in the top three is going to look back in anger at this lottery night, while at least one team who missed out is gonna be secretly thankful not to have the pressure. Besides, finishing with the #11 pick gives our new guy Sam Hinkie a chance to be a little creative, rather than just taking the guy everyone agrees is best. Don't you want to see what our GM can do?

Don't get me wrong, I'll still be rooting for Stern to skip from the Raptors to the Blazers when drawing teams out of his envelope tonight. But it's almost certainly not gonna happen, and that's cool. I'm weirdly optimistic about our chances at hitting at #11 anyway.

Seth Smith would be a logical, low-cost trade target for Phillies

Seth Smith would be a logical, low-cost trade target for Phillies

Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said Tuesday night he'd still like another veteran bat in addition to Howie Kendrick, though he understands the front office is conscious of not blocking young prospects.

The Phillies need offense and the clearest area to upgrade is an outfield corner. But don't expect to see the Phils go after Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders or anyone of that ilk, because those players will require multi-year guarantees and everyday playing time. If you sign one of them, you're basically telling two of Roman Quinn, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr that they won't be needed much the next three years. 

That would be unwise. The whole point of rebuilding is filling a roster with young, inexpensive talent and then eventually supplementing that core with established players who fit. Look at what the Cubs did. Look at what the Astros are doing now, adding older players like Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Nori Aoki and Josh Reddick to fill in the holes around Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman.

For that reason, a player like Seth Smith would be a worthwhile addition for the Phillies.

Smith, 34, makes $7 million in 2017, the final year of his contract with the Mariners. When Mackanin discusses "professional hitters," Smith is the type. He has one of the better batting eyes in baseball, chasing about eight percent fewer pitches outside the strike zone the last three years than the league average.

He's a career .261/.344/.447 hitter who averages 29 doubles, 16 homers, 56 walks and 102 strikeouts per 162 games.

The left-handed Smith can play both outfield corners, and he's always been very effective against right-handed pitching. He has a .272 career batting average with an .827 OPS against righties compared to .202 with a .594 OPS vs. lefties. 

Smith is a fit for the Phillies for several reasons. They need more offense from the corner outfield. Logically, that outfielder should be a left-handed hitter because the Phillies' projected middle of the order has four right-handed bats in Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp and Kendrick.

Furthermore, Smith, unlike Saunders, for example, does not require everyday playing time. Smith shouldn't start against lefties. That would provide opportunities to Altherr and Quinn in 2017, while protecting against ineffectiveness from Altherr and another injury to Quinn.

And lastly, Smith is not going to cost anything meaningful via trade. He's a 34-year-old platoon player in the final year of his deal. The Phillies could likely land him for an insignificant prospect, perhaps a pitcher who had a high strikeout rate last season in the low levels of the minor leagues. 

For Seattle, it would be more of a salary dump. The Mariners' 2016 payroll is already $20 million more than it was last year, and per reports, they seem willing to spend to improve their starting rotation.

Smith is not a game-changer, that's not the argument here. He's not J.D. Martinez, a much bigger name and better player. Martinez would also fit the Phillies as a one-year option, and they'd likely be interested in keeping him around longer if they could acquire him. But any trade with the Tigers for Martinez wouldn't be nearly as painless for the Phils as acquiring Smith. 

So perhaps more than other available outfielders, Smith would be an offensive upgrade and a player who fits the Phillies' goal of improving without stunting a top prospect's growth.

Connor McDavid, Oilers' speed, skill present Flyers with 'real good challenge'

Connor McDavid, Oilers' speed, skill present Flyers with 'real good challenge'

VOORHEES, N.J. — They are among the very best – and highest scoring — lines in the NHL this season.
 
And they’re gunning for the Flyers on Thursday night at the Wells Fargo Center.
 
Connor McDavid’s unit with Milan Lucic and Leon Draisaitl have a combined 30 goals and 78 points worth of offense. 
 
Among them, the lightning quick McDavid leads the NHL with 36 points. All 11 of his goals are even strength. 
 
He doesn’t have a single power-play goal, but is tied for the league lead with several players, including Claude Giroux, with 10 power-play assists.
 
You can expect to see Pierre-Edouard Bellemare’s unit with Chris VandeVelde and Dale Weise against this line with defenseman Ivan Provorov drawing McDavid for the first time this season.
 
“Speed and skill that Edmonton has up front presents a real good challenge for our team,” Flyers coach Dave Hakstol said. “We have to be better with the puck tomorrow. 
 
“We didn’t do enough when we had the puck. Gave it up a little too easily and because of that, you end up playing defense a lot of the night and that’s what happened last night to us.”
 
Bellemare, who had his share of forward battles with Jaromir Jagr in Tuesday, likes to analyze the matchups against McDavid.
 
“He’s one of the best players in the world,” Bellemare said of the 19-year-old McDavid. “It’s tough not to be excited when playing against a guy who plays like this. He competes every second he is on the ice. That line is an impressive line.”
 
The Flyers better have some bad, choppy ice to slow McDavid down. Edmonton has some of the fastest ice in the league and the Oilers use it to their full advantage. 
 
Asked of McDavid’s tendencies, Bellemare said, “Is that a tendency? To be super fast?”
 
Yes it is. 
 
“When you play against them, he is a kid who is freaky fast right from the start,” Bellemare said. “Against that line, you saw [against Buffalo] that everyone knows how fast he is and he still had two breakaways.”
 
Which means the Flyers need to watch their turnovers, especially in the neutral zone where McDavid can go 60 feet in a flash.
 
“Even blue line to the top of the circle, you can’t turn the puck over,” Bellemare said. “Or he’s gone. This is a tendency we have to be careful of. All of the ice, you can’t give him any time or space. The less time you give him, the bigger chance you have to frustrate a player like this.”
 
Bellemare did some talking with Jagr a couple times in Tuesday’s game. So did Provorov. Bellemare says it helps to add psychology to the mix.
 
“You try to be in his face,” Bellemare said. “If you can win that battle against that line and our first line can win the battle against their fourth line, then it’s a win-win situation. I was trying to be in [Jagr’s] face.”
 
Jagr actually got angrier at Provorov and it showed with his hooking calls. But when Bellemare and Jagr went into the corner, Jagr got testy with his stick there as well.
 
“He was trying to give it to me a little harder,” Bellemare said. “Exactly what I need. If he is less focused on the puck, then maybe I have a chance to win that puck.”
 
McDavid’s focus will be solely on the puck.
 
“McDavid has been playing some pretty good hockey,” Flyers captain Claude Giroux said. “They’re a high-tempo team. A smart team. We’ve got to be ready.”
 
Loose pucks
Boyd Gordon came off long term injured reserve onto the active roster to give the Flyers 13 forwards. In doing that, Matt Read (oblique pull) went on injured reserve. … Defenseman Michael Del Zotto will sit against the Oilers while Radko Gudas returns from an illness. Gudas will be paired with Mark Streit, as Ivan Provorov remains with Andrew MacDonald for now. … Steve Mason, who did not practice Wednesday, will start in goal.