The 700 Level’s annual Philadelphia Eagles training camp preview returns. We’re taking an in-depth look at Birds position by position and asking whether the club got better or worse. Check out the introduction for more details on the series.
BETTER
More Talent
A lot of you have been asking the wrong question. It’s not, “Would you rather have LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray? It’s “Would you rather have McCoy or Murray AND Ryan Mathews?”—and that question should be fairly easy to answer.
I would probably take McCoy over Murray, although it is very close. Give me Mathews, too, and it becomes a no-brainer. Two Pro Bowl-caliber running backs as opposed to one? And they can split up the workload as opposed to putting it all on man’s shoulders?
The latter has been an underrated concern for the Eagles the past couple of seasons. McCoy carried the ball 626 times between 2013 and 2014 compared to 189 for all other running backs. That’s 76.8 percent of the attempts, and doesn’t even account for receptions or total snaps. What would the offense have done if McCoy were unavailable for any reason?
NFL
Now the Eagles essentially have a 1A-1B situation in the backfield. Obviously, Murray—the NFL’s reigning rushing champion—is more than capable of handling a full workload. I think some people tend to forget Mathews has rushed for over 1,000 yards twice in five professional seasons as well, including as recently as 2013.
With Murray and Mathews splitting up carries—and I do believe the distribution could be closer to 50/50—the Eagles can keep both fresh, not to mention are prepared in case one gets injured.
WORSE
Home Run Ability
The argument could also be made that Murray and Mathews are better fits for Philadelphia’s offense. They are big one-cut runners who hit the hole and take what’s there, as opposed to McCoy, who may try to create something rather than accept a minimal gain. In an offense that moves quickly, and therefore also gives the ball back quickly when drives stall, McCoy’s losses can be crippling.
Of course, nobody is complaining when McCoy’s dancing creates a crease and suddenly he’s off to the races. That’s an aspect of the offense that could go missing.
Consider this statistic, via CSNPhilly.com’s Reuben Frank: McCoy has 11 career rushing touchdowns of 30 yards or more—Murray has one. Or how about this: McCoy has seven fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 40 yards or more—Murray has never had a fourth-quarter touchdown run longer than 15 yards. So while McCoy’s dancing may lead to the occasional punt, it’s also produced a lot of clutch plays for the Eagles.
Let’s not make too much about scheme, either. Head coach Chip Kelly said himself that McCoy fits any system, and clearly the three-time Pro Bowler fit here, because he led the league in rushing in 2013. Nor should McCoy be blamed for all of the issues in the ground attack last season. When the offensive line was at its worst in September and the franchise’s all-time leading rusher was averaging 2.8 yards per attempt, the tape shows there was no place to go.
THE SAME
Darren Sproles
Let’s not forget about Sproles, the Eagles’ proverbial Swiss Army knife. I must admit, I thought the Birds were getting a shell of the Sproles that tortured defenses as a member of the New Orleans Saints. Now 32 years old, he looked as explosive as ever in 2014, posting a career year of sorts that landed him in his first Pro Bowl.
Sproles was the Eagles’ X-factor so many times last season, I lost count. In all, he found the end zone eight times—six times on the ground, twice on punt returns. The Eagles barely even used Sproles in the passing attack, where he is perhaps at his most dangerous.
That could change in 2015. With two backs splitting up carries, Sproles could wind up getting more work as a receiver this season. That means catching passes out of the backfield or lining up in the slot, where defenses have an impossible decision to make in whether or not to cover him with a linebacker or safety.
Either way, Sproles is a special talent who clearly has a lot left in the tank. Like all athletes, he will decline eventually—clearly just not yet.
THE UNKNOWN
Durability
Say what you want about McCoy, but he’s been tremendously durable, suiting up for all 16 games each of the past two years, and only missing more than one contest in a season once in 2012. That’s rare, especially at running back in this day and age.
The same cannot be said for Murray or Mathews. 2014 is the first time in four seasons with the Dallas Cowboys Murray appeared in all 16 games. Mathews has managed to play 16 just once in five seasons with the San Diego Chargers. It would be fair to describe either back as injury prone.
There’s another potential issue with regards to Murray—the so-called Curse of 370.
Players who carry the ball 370 times or more in a season frequently see a marked drop-off in production and ability the following year, and are even more likely to be injured. The theory is they are often still feeling the effects of a heavy workload.
Murray carried the ball 392 times in the regular season and an additional 44 times in the playoffs. He added another 61 receptions in 18 games. If you count plays that did not register as attempts or catches due to penalty, Murray easily touched the ball over 500 times total in 2014-15. Are the Eagles even getting the same player?
The Curse of 370 is far from perfect science, but there’s plenty of evidence overusage is real. And in Murray’s case, the drop-off was happening in real time. In September, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry. In October, 4.9. November, 4.5. By December, Murray was only averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. Some of that was defenses changing their gameplan for the Cowboys offense—but some of it was also Murray wearing down.
Between questions of durability, and last season’s insane workload for Murray in particular, there’s certainly reason for concern about the backs replacing McCoy. Then again, there’s a randomness to injuries and decline, so anything could happen.
BETTER OR WORSE?
As of now, Murray and Mathews are healthy and presumably still in their primes. It’s really wouldn’t be fair to assume otherwise before the fact. With that in mind, it’s pretty clear that combination has more upside than last year with McCoy and… Chris Polk. With Sproles still playing at a high level, and perhaps more dangerous than ever provided he sees more work in the passing game, and the situation in the backfield was clearly upgraded this offseason.
Better
Previously: Wide Receiver, Defensive Line, Outside Linebacker, Interior Linebacker, Cornerback, Safety, Special Teams