Good Move or Bad Move: Eagles signing DeMarco Murray

Share

Among the many reasons for Chip Kelly's release was a series of personnel changes that backfired -- but were all of his roster tweaks the wrong decisions? We look back on Kelly's construction of the Eagles and reflect on whether each move was good or bad.

The LeSean McCoy trade was sold, in part, as a financial decision. It appeared that might be true when the Eagles were showing interest in Frank Gore and Ryan Mathews -- relatively inexpensive, mid-tier free-agent running backs to replace the franchise's all-time leading rusher.

Then out of nowhere, DeMarco Murray was on an airplane headed to Philadelphia, and before you know it, the two-time Pro Bowler was signing a five-year, $40 million contract with $21 million guaranteed. If the McCoy swap was engineered to save money, why reinvest those savings and than some back into the same position?

Yes, Murray was coming off of a season in which he led the NFL in rushing for the Dallas Cowboys, but to use that one season as evidence he was every bit as talented as McCoy would be misguided. Yet the Eagles paid him as if that were the case, creating a crowded backfield in the process.

The move backfired. Murray was the least effective back on the team, averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry for the season and eventually seeing his role dramatically reduced. But since the Eagles are paying him in 2016 regardless, now the question shifts to whether Murray can rebound in the season ahead.

Murray vs. McCoy
Murray was probably overrated to begin with. It's amazing how easily numbers can sway opinions. The thinking was Murray led the NFL with 1,845 yards on the ground, therefore he must be one of the best backs in the league -- on a plain with McCoy, the previous year's rushing champion. That was completely ignoring the fact that it took Murray 392 carries to reach that total. That's a whopping 80 more than McCoy had, and he finished second in the NFL in attempts. In terms of yards per carry, Murray was tied with four players for 10th, which is still pretty good, but nothing outrageous.

Then there is the reality that Murray was running behind an offensive line featuring three Pro Bowl players, all of whom were recent first-round draft picks, with a dangerous passing attack featuring Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to take a lot of the focus away from the back. Meanwhile, McCoy ran for 1,319 yards for the Eagles last season -- more than Murray ever had prior to '14 -- behind a patchwork offensive line and with Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez under center.

While it's errant to suggest the Eagles traded McCoy to sign Murray, this exercise should demonstrate how circumstances impact statistics. McCoy ran for 1,000 yards in four of his last five seasons with the Eagles and proved his dominance over time. Murray was a solid back, but never great prior to '14, yet one good year completely changed that perception and got him a hefty paycheck.

Regression was obvious
Let's get something else straight. Murray was on the decline even before he signed with the Eagles, and that likely can be traced to his near-historic workload last season.

By now, most everybody has heard of the Curse of 370, and while it's far from scientific, there is no denying backs that take on the volume of carries Murray did in 2014 almost universally are less effective the following season. It's not difficult to explain, either. A player who touches the ball 500 times over 18 regular season and playoff games as Murray did last season is getting hit a lot, which naturally takes its toll on a body.

Murray was already showing the effects of his brutal workload by last season's end. His yards per carry dropped every month, from 5.4 in September until it was only 4.0 in December -- the baseline for quality production.

Some of Murray's woes can maybe be blamed on his lack of comfort in Kelly's offense or the notion he wasn't a fit. Regardless, he didn't look like a back who would perform at a high level in any scheme. Murray seemed slow. He didn't run with much burst, wasn't hitting holes or cutting upfield with the football and too often went down on first contact. In short, Murray does not appear to be the same player he was last year, and that was to be expected.

Unnecessary spending
Murray's regression aside, the simple fact is the Eagles didn't even need another running back. Ryan Mathews was already in the building to sign a free-agent contract and had served as a feature back with two 1,000-yard seasons in San Diego. Darren Sproles was still on the roster and was Kelly's ideal change-of-pace back. The Eagles also owned Chris Polk's rights as a restricted free agent, and Kenjon Barner had re-signed after spending the previous season on the practice squad.

With Murray on board, Mathews was relegated to a backup role even though he was clearly the more effective of the two from the outset. Barner made the team but was inactive many weeks because there was simply no need for all four backs. And Polk, understandably disgruntled over the lack of opportunity, was allowed to leave when the Eagles could've retained him for a fraction of the cost it took to reel in Murray.

No matter your feelings on Murray, Kelly badly mismanaged this situation. He added way more talent than could be used, throwing tons of money at a position where cheaper players could've worked their way up the depth chart and produced. It didn't make sense back in March, and it looks far worse now.

Conclusion
By and large, Eagles fans loved the Murray signing. They ignored the history of running backs who had been overused. They didn't care that a backfield featuring Mathews, Barner and Polk could've been just as effective, if not more. But the warning signs were there all along.

There is a chance with another year removed from his heavy '14 workload and placed in an offense more suited to his skillset that Murray might regain his form. Then again, he'll be 28 years old next season and assuming he's back with the Eagles, he won't exactly have Romo, Dez and that Cowboys offensive line surrounding him.

It's a mistake to give most any running back his age the kind of contract Kelly did. Just look at the list of top-10 rushers this season. Aside from Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley, it's a collection of players who have all been undervalued at some point in their NFL careers. Doug Martin. Darren McFadden. Chris Ivory. Latavis Murray. Devonta Freeman. Jonathan Stewart. DeAngelo Williams.

So maybe Murray rebounds a bit. Even still, he'll almost certainly never be as good as he was in '13 and '14, the Eagles will be paying him top dollar, and at a position they could've got comparable production for far cheaper.

 

Previously: The Bradford trade, The LeSean-Kiko swap

Contact Us