The Philadelphia 76ers ruined a whole lot of Saturday nights over the weekend, with the release of the news that their ceiling-less center prospect Joel Embiid had suffered a setback in his injury recovery, and thus would likely miss Summer League play and who knows what else. Well actually, they didn't technically mention either of those things, so here's what Our Dark Lord Sam Hinkie really did say, via statement:
As part of the conservative approach focused on the long-term health, recovery and care of Joel, we have been closely monitoring his progress, regularly evaluating his status and adjusting our plans accordingly.
Recently, Joel and Sixers personnel traveled to Los Angeles for a series of routine exams with a number of physicians who have been actively involved throughout this process. During his visit with Dr. Richard Ferkel, a standard CT scan on Joel’s right foot revealed less healing than anticipated at this point.
Our priority remains providing Joel with every opportunity to ensure he has a long and successful NBA career, and as such, these findings cause us to pause and reassess his current activities. Together with Joel and his representatives, we will continue to consult with the experienced team of doctors who have been an integral part of his evaluations, while also engaging in dialogue with a broader set of experts and specialists.
Discussions regarding the appropriate next steps are currently ongoing and we will share an update once it becomes available.
Diplomatically worded of course, but with memories of Andrew Bynum — you know, the talented seven-foot guy the Sixers made a huge investment in who never played a minute in an actual game for them — forever fresh in fans' minds, a phrase like "less healing than anticipated" is about as terrifying as it gets.
Is it really bunker time for Sixer fans, though? Just how world-shattering should our interpretation of this news be? Is this, in fact, a perfectly good time to panic? Let's debate.
YES PANIC:
- It's been a long time since Joel had surgery on his right navicular bone: almost a full calendar year, in fact. The original reports suggested a 4-6 month recovery time — even though we all knew Hinkie was probably going to insist on him sitting out the whole season, that should have been more precautionary than anything. Hell, Embiid was supposed to play in Vegas for the Sixers just a couple weeks from now. To say something like "if it hasn't healed by now, it's probably just not going to" would probably be grossly misleading, but for him to still be experiencing delays in recovery at this point has to be considered decently alarming.
- The ambiguity of the statement is similarly concerning. If Hink divulged exactly what is currently impeding Embiid's progress, along with a plan for treatment and a timeline for recovery, the news would still be devastating, but it wouldn't be quite so terrifying. "Less healing than anticipated," "pause and reassess his current activities," "engaging in dialogue with a broader set of experts and specialists" — it all basically reads as "Sh--, guys, we don't know what the deal is here either" or even worse, "Trust us, guys, you don't want to know how bad this really is." As has often been pointed out, seven-footers like Yao Ming and Bill Walton have had their careers ground to a halt by navicular issues, and though it was always a risk that Joel would suffer a similar fate, to see signs of it before his pro life even gets going is pretty rough.
- And as just about every Sixers blogger has mentioned, the fact that the team issued a statement about this at all is chill-inducing. Even prior to the Hinkie Era, the Sixers have never been the most transparent of teams as relates to injury concerns and the like — I think we're still waiting for official word that Bynum is out for the whole season — and under his watch, they've been especially closed off on such matters. For them to actively inform the public that things aren't going so great with Embiid's recovery is frightening in its sheer unprecedentedness.
At least there is a decent explanation as to why this injury received such a treatment, which is that intrepidest of NBA reports Adrian Wojnarowski already had a story of his own ready to run on the matter. Whether they knew the article was ready to come out or merely always have statements of their own available as contingencies, it's possible that their release was sent out just to get ahead of the story, to not make it look like they were trying to hide anything. But regardless of the reasoning behind it, it was a freaky sight to see a PR email in my inbox from the Sixers about something besides a new development with the team's mascot or logo or practice facility or something similarly frivolous. If they blasted a statement, that probably means it was about something truly unignorable.
NO PANIC:
- The ambiguity thing goes both ways. No, we don't know how bad it is with Joel's foot right now, but while just about any news is bad news, we shouldn't assume the nuclear outcome or anything close to it just yet. He hasn't officially been ruled out for anything, not even Summer League, and while Wojnarowski's report mentions sources who say that Embiid's summer plans "could be jeopardized" now, the fact that he's not definitely out is minorly comforting. Woj mentions the "S" word (surgery) in relation to the seven-footer, but only to say that it's "premature to speculate" about him needing any further operating. Scary not to know, but it at least means there's hope that this all turns out to be a whole lotta not much.
And for what it's worth, Woj also ends the article with this quote about the seven-footer's progress: "Eyewitness accounts of Embiid's workouts in recent weeks in Southern California described dominant, explosive performances, offering a glimpse into the kind of potential that could have had Embiid selected first overall in the 2014 draft." Tough to say how legit that is, but in any event, Embiid certainly doesn't sound like a guy whose NBA career is already on the verge of being over. - And speaking of a whole lotta not much, Joel suffered a reported setback (caught by Tom Moore of PhillyBurbs.com) to his foot back in March, apparently wearing a walking boot, but within weeks he was back on the practice court with his recovery timeline unchanged. This feels a little different because the Sixers didn't issue a statement that time and because the terminology this time feels a little more foreboding, but as much as everyone freaked out about Embiid those months ago, it ended up being totally unnecessary. It's not impossible the story of this setback will end up being similar.
- It's a little too conspiracy theory-ish even for the Hinkie administration, but it has to at least be mentioned that the timing of this news could play somewhat to the Sixers' advantage come draft night. The Sixers were likely always planning to take the Best Player Available with the #3 pick, but there was some quasi-legitimate thought to the Sixers bypassing a player like sweet-shooting, super-athletic big man Kristaps Porzingis — or even a mega-prospect like Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns, should one of them happen to drop to #3 — because he would make for too much positional redundancy alongside Embiid and Nerlens Noel. That would mean the Sixers would only be considering backcourt and wing options — namely, Ohio State combo guard D'Angelo Russell, believed by many to be the frontrunner for the Sixers' top pick.
If everyone knows, or thinks they know, who the Sixers really wanted at #3, that would hurt Hinkie's leverage should he attempt to deal the pick. I've long been coming around to the idea that the Sixers should (or at least will) strongly consider dealing down in this draft, and the pick will be more valuable if the teams below Philly fear that the guy they really want is in play for the Hink. For example, the Magic at #5 are decently set in the backcourt with Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo, and thus might not be all that interested in Russell still being on the boar for them. What they really need is a floor-stretching, rim-protecting big, a profile which Porzingis fits beautifully. If Orlando worries that Philly might take Porzingis themselves — a possibility all along, but one whose likelihood increases if Embiid's long-term health is now a greater concern, at least in league-wide perception — they might be more motivated to part with some assets to move up to #3 to make sure they get their guy.
Do I believe that this Embiid news is just a baseless misdirection meant to bolster the team's bargaining position come draft night? I wish I could. In all likelihood, it's probably just the very slightest of happy coincidences surrounding an otherwise very unhappy situation. But Hinkie is brilliant and diabolical enough to make you wonder if there's ever any true coincidences with him, and if maybe the news, while undeniably bad, could have been purposefully framed in such a way as to make the league wonder of the team's true intentions come June 26. At least with the Hink, it's comforting to think that such an explanation is even in play.
So is it panic on the streets of Philly over this news, then? Well.. I can't say that I would blame you if you did, anyway. It's not the apocalypse yet for JoJo, and the Sixers have stocked themselves with enough current and future assets over the next few years that even if Embiid does turn out to be Bynum 2.0, that's not the death of their entire rebuild. But it would be a severe and considerably depressing setback, and if it does result in the center missing most or all of next year, it probably means another year of uncompetitiveness for Philly, and maybe a third consecutive season of not really even trying — something that will be a tough pill for fans (and an even tougher one for Brett Brown) to swallow. Embiid isn't our last shot at developing a transcendent, league-changing talent, but he may end up being our best one, and anything that jeopardizes his long-term health pretty much demands to be reacted to like a death in the family.
NBA
As previously stated, this was always a concern with Joel, and even if this ominous news report doesn't turn out to be the Big One — which we really don't have any actual indication about it being yet — it's something Sixers fans will always have to live in fear of anytime they see his name pop up in an email or as a Twitter trending topic. We should continue to hope for the best and not assume the worst, and put our faith in Hinkie and the process, but this news is at the very least a sobering (if necessary) reminder how even a meticulous a long-term planner as Hinkie is still at the mercy of the NBA gods, and that even the most smartly calculated of risks are still risks for a reason. The draft is coming up, and the Sixers have stepped up their efforts to get our man Dario Saric over ASAP — a development perhaps not entirely related to this one, as many have mentioned — so there could still be blue skies on the horizon for our Liberty Ballers. Let's just pray this particular cloud doesn't get any bigger or greyer in the meantime.