Sizing up Sundays Super Bowl XLVI between the New England Patriots (15-3) and New York Giants (12-7) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The Storyline
A rematch of Super Bowl XLII and a chance for the Patriots to avenge that upset loss to the Giants. For coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, it is chance for a fourth Super Bowl crown. For Giants quarterback Eli Manning, it is a chance to win his second Super Bowl ring in the same building where brother Peyton built his legend.
The Xs and Os
For the Giants, the key is defense. Can they get pressure on Tom Brady with just their front four? That was how they beat Brady in the last Super Bowl and thats how they beat him again in November. If they can break down the Pats protection with their D-line, then they can drop seven into coverage, play zone and make Brady squeeze the ball into tight windows. But if they are forced to blitz, Brady will find the one-on-ones and exploit them.
On the other side, the Patriots have to force the Giants into mistakes. The Pats allowed an average of 411 yards a game, second worst in the league, but were a respectable 15th in points allowed because they forced 34 turnovers. It is critical in this game that they win the turnover battle. The Giants are plus-five giveawaytakeaway in the postseason, which is a big reason why they are here. Eli was a little lucky in the NFC title game. He put a few balls up for grabs and the 49ers dropped several easy interceptions. If he is careless again Sunday, the Patriots have to make him pay.
The Big Question
Rob Gronkowskis ankle. The 6-foot-7 tight end is the big weapon in the New England offense (18 touchdowns in the regular season), but he suffered a high ankle sprain in the AFC title game against Baltimore. He arrived at the Super Bowl in a walking boot and while he is expected to play Sunday, it is hard to predict how effective he will be.
The Giants will put safety Antrel Rolle and linebacker Michael Boley on Gronkowski to start the game. If he cant get down the field (he averaged almost 15 yards a catch during the season) it will limit the Patriots offense because he opens things up for Wes Welker underneath. Gronkowski is also Bradys favorite target in the red zone.
Game Within the Game
Chart the slot receivers: Welker for the Pats, Victor Cruz for the Giants. Both have huge roles. Welker led the league with 122 catches. He had nine catches for 136 yards against the Giants earlier this season. Cruz, the breakout star of the season, led the Giants with 82 receptions, a team-record 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns.
Dont Forget About
Chad Ochocinco had little impact after signing with the Patriots this season. He had only 15 catches (one touchdown) and didnt even dress for the AFC title game. He has been a bust, basically. But he may play a role in Sundays game especially if Gronkowski really is limited by his ankle injury. The Patriots will need another playmaker and Ochocincos speed, if nothing else, can stretch the field.
Key Matchup
Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork against Giants center David Baas. The 6-2, 320-pound Wilfork was dominant in the win over Baltimore, shutting down the run and getting a paw in the face of quarterback Joe Flacco on pass plays. Wilforks pressure is vital, especially in this game since the New England secondary does not match up well against the Giants explosive receivers. If Eli has time to scan the field, he will find plenty of open receivers.
NFL
Worth Noting
This is the first Super Bowl matching Super Bowl MVPs at quarterback. Brady has won the honor twice, Manning once. Terry Bradshaw and Roger Staubach met in Super Bowl XIII, but Bradshaw was not yet an MVP. He won the award for the first time in that game. Staubach won it in Super Bowl VI.
Prediction
Prior to the season, I picked a New England-Green Bay Super Bowl with the Patriots winning. No sense changing horses now. Ill stick with the Pats to win it all, although Id have a lot more confidence if Gronkowski was healthy.
Looking at the history of New England Super Bowls with Bill Belichick, I couldnt help noticing all four games were decided by three points. Why buck the trend?
Patriots 27, Giants 24
E-mail Ray Didinger at viewfromthehall@comcast.net
For the latest on Super Bowl XLVI, see NBCSports.com.