When the Giants defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXXVI (or is it XLVI?), one Eagles player in particular also lost something. You probably didnt notice and maybe he didnt either.
New York and New England (and many teams before them) got to the big game without the benefit of a commanding running game. While the Giants tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw did total more than 100 yards in the championship win, neither dictated to the defense. That brings me to LeSean McCoy.
One of the highlights last week in Indy was McCoys receiving of the FedEx Ground Player of the Year Award for his incredibly productive rushing performance in 2011. In keeping with that companys theme, the NFLs continued emphasis on the passing game absolutely, positively affects McCoys earning potential. Runners just are not as valuable as they once were, and any team that overdrafts or overpays them had better beware.
Seventeen of Shadys 20 touchdowns came on the ground. Yet, in the final analysis, his team barely squeezed out an 8-8 record, even though, in him, its offense featured a prolific back. The lesson (which I will continue to pound until it changes) is running backs are not as valuable as they once were in the NFL, and to spend too high a draft pick or too much money on one is ill-advised, even suicide. In recent drafts, the following backs have been deemed worthy of top-12 status:
Player Overall Pick
Ronnie BrownNo. 2
Cedric Benson No. 4
Carnell WilliamsNo. 5
Adrian PetersonNo. 7
Darren McFadden No. 4
Knowshon Moreno No. 12
Do you see a familiar theme? Neither of the players listed above has come close to leading his team deep into the postseason, let alone to a championship. And every one of these teams has fallen off.
The most accomplished runner in the group is Peterson. Last September, the Vikings signed him to an extension that includes 36 million in guarantees. If that occasion represented Christmas Day for Peterson, then on the actual Christmas Eve his entire future was called into question when he took a horrific shot on his left knee that ripped multiple ligaments. Fortunately, Peterson got his money in time. You think the Vikings wish they had never committed that money to a running back? I sure do.
NFL
The problem that a team creates for itself with so much money committed to a running back is there usually is no adequate replacement on the roster. Quick, who is in line to start the season as the Vikings top runner?
That brings me back to McCoy. Since he was a second-round pick, the Eagles have gotten tremendous return for their money. McCoy clearly has outperformed Moreno and the Colts Donald Brown, both of whom were taken in the first round the same year. But, he is still a running back, on a team that prefers to throw the ball downfield.
When the Eagles and McCoys agent get together, be honest, how much weight do you think management will place in the numbers he put up for a .500 team. Remember now, the front offices duty is to get the best it can for the least cost. In McCoys case, I think its safe to say his production will not necessarily determine how far the team goes in 2012. It certainly has not so far. Heck, the Eagles put up 34 points on Washington in the season finale with McCoy dressed in street clothes!
The evidence is before us all across the league. Look, the Patriots came within a Wes Welker drop (yes, he should have caught that ball) of winning it all without a running game. The days of the heavily-paid running back are in the past. Thats not to say some teams wont open the wallets and lay out tons of cash anyway. Im simply betting that the teams that do so wont have major success.
I say again, the evidence is before us all across the league. Do you believe in your heart the Eagles will grant McCoy a blockbuster deal? Thats not to knock the team. The issue is, when it come to McCoys position its wise to go the inexpensive route.
McCoy is about to enter the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. Hell be only 24 when the season starts. There were reports during the season that talks had begun on a new deal. McCoy will want to be paid like an elite player, perhaps in Petersons range of 30-35 million in guarantees.
Prorated over six years, the cap hit would be more than manageable, but remember, were talking about a running back here. Good ones can be found late in drafts and in even among the pool of undrafted rookies. A sound financial manager must ask himself if hes getting the most bang for his buck. The Eagles are a team with bigger fish to fry, and when they ask themselves that question, I suspect they will tread very carefully. Even Brian Westbrook, an All-Pro during his time here, had to resort to holding out of camp before he got paid. From a business standpoint, why would McCoy be viewed any differently?
The two Super Bowl teams just showed us how seldom running backs influence long-term success. For a player of McCoys stature, I suspect the harsh reality of what weve witnessed for years in the NFL will come calling soon. Fans wont like it, even if in their heart of hearts they realize its dictated by history.
E-mail Ron Burke at rburke@comcastsportsnet.com.