On Thursday, the Cardinals announced their NLDS pitching rotation for the first three games.
The order was unexpected, to say the least, as Tony La Russa wont be immediately utilizing a left-handed starter who has been kryptonite to the Phillies since breaking onto the scene in 2010.
Thats right, Jaime Garcia will take the hill in Game 4, at the earliest.
According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cards rotation for the first three will be Kyle Lohse-Edwin Jackson-Chris Carpenter.
What is most puzzling about La Russas decision is that not only has Garcia been incredibly successful against the Phillies in his short career (0.96 ERA, .178 opponents' batting average), but he would have been pitching on normal rest in Game 1. Garcia last pitched Monday, so Saturdays series opener would have given Garcia his typical four-day interval between starts.
By going with Lohse and Jackson in Games 1 and 2, both games in Philadelphia become bona fide ace vs. mid-rotation starter. Lohse had his best year as a professional in 2011, going 14-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a low 1.17 WHIP, but those numbers were aided by an uncharacteristically low .269 batting average on balls in play.
Referred to most simply as BABIP, a pitchers batting average on balls in play does a good job of showing how much his numbers were affected by luck, as well as the defense behind him.
MLB
No reasonable conclusion can be drawn simply from BABIP, but when we take into account batted-ball types we see a much clearer picture. League average BABIP tends to be between .290 and .300. If a pitchers season number suddenly goes down to .270 despite his still allowing the same amount of hard-hit balls (line drives, mostly), we can conclude that his season was somewhat lucky.
For his career, Lohse has a .302 BABIP while allowing line drives 20.8 percent of the time. In 2011, his BABIP shrunk to .269, despite his giving up more line drives than usual (21.9 percent). Inducing liners directly at fielders is not a skill. It is luck. Lohse may have been slightly better than usual this year, but an ERA in the high-3.00s or low-4.00s would have been a more accurate reflection of his skill level.
When the Phils faced Lohse Sept. 19, he left plenty of pitches up in the zone and on most nights would have been hammered. But the Phils let him off the hook by swinging through or popping up many of his offerings. Lohse beat Halladay that night. Lets see him do it again before offering any real praise.
Game 2 starter, Jackson, has long been a scouts dream. Well, he has long been another scouts dream. At age 28, Jackson has already been a part of six different organizations. Or seven, if you include his brief stop in Toronto this year.
The Cardinals parted with outfielder Colby Rasmus to acquire Jackson at the trade deadline, marking the second straight year GM John Mozeliak traded a starting outfielder to bolster his rotation. (He traded Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook in 2010).
Despite a no-hitter last season, Jackson has never has been able to successfully limit the hits. He has a .276 career opponents' batting average and this year allowed more hits per nine innings than all but 11 other major league starters.
The Phils have faced Jackson only once since 2008. The matchup came last year, when Jackson, then a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowed five runs on eight hits over five innings.
On paper, the Phillies are clear favorites to win Games 1 and 2. Halladay and Lee are almost immeasurably superior to their pitching counterparts, both games will take place in Philadelphia and the Cardinals will be without Matt Holliday for at least the first game.
La Russa can over-think any situation. In fact, we imagine that he probably does in
everyday life. Cant you picture him standing motionless at an Exxon deciding between regular unleaded and premium, or rigging his clubhouse vending machine to allow the selection of one strawberry Pop-Tart, five animal crackers and 11 peanut M&Ms for one purchase?
His decision to save Garcia for Game 4 is based on the leftys better home numbers. But Game 4 may never come, and Garcia has been so good against the Phillies that you'd think those splits matter more than home vs. road.
Oh well. No complaints here.
For more statistical musings from Corey Seidman, visit Brotherly Glove and Phillies Nation.