While the Philadelphia sports universe awaits a decision on Jimmy Rollins future, I have begun to think about the upcoming season and how the lineup will shake out with or without J-Roll.
Every time I engage in this mental exercise, my mind stops on one realization: Hunter Pence is lined up pretty nicely to win the National League MVP this season.
Before anyone calls me a homer, lets break down a couple of key points in Pences favor:
1. Hell be the focal point of the offense
Even if the Phillies veterans buy in to the plate discipline approach being set forth by management, its clear that Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, and Rollins (if he returns) have played their best baseball already. Ryan Howards torn Achilles tendon places his 2012 productivity in severe doubt.
So that leaves Pence and Shane Victorino as healthy stars in their primes. Considering that Pence will likely begin the season as the cleanup hitter and will always hit somewhere between third and fifth in the order, hell be better positioned to serve as a run producer than Victorino while likely posting similar, if not better, average and OBP numbers.
2. The Phillies will win
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels basically ensure that the Phillies are going to eclipse the 85-win total. Thats significant because the MVP almost always comes from a winning team.
Larry Walker is the last NL MVP to win the award playing for a team that finished below the 85-victory mark. That was in 1997. (The Phillies picked up exactly 85 victories in Ryan Howards 2006 MVP campaign.)
With that in mind, you can almost definitely eliminate players from the following teams: Astros, Pirates, Padres and Mets.
MLB
For the time being, Ill keep players from teams like the Nationals, Dodgers, Cubs and Rockies in play. Nevertheless, the Phillies will likely be a force in the National League again this season and that helps Pences case.
3. The field has opened up
The NL MVP race has gone through Albert Pujols for the past seven seasons with the former Cardinals slugger taking home the honor three times in that span. The key word in the previous sentence: former. As in, Pujols is another leagues nightmare now.
Ryan Braun, last seasons MVP, is facing a possible 50-game suspension for PED use. Even if Braun is cleared of wrongdoing and plays a full season, his image is likely tarnished to the point that BBWAA voters will not give him the support needed, regardless of performance.
Brauns powerhouse teammate, Prince Fielder, is now a free agent. He may end up in the American League or in a situation that precludes him from winning the award this season (i.e: a bad Cubs team).
That basically leaves the following names as viable MVP candidates as we sit here without a game being played (organized by division):
NL West
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles
Buster Posey, San Francisco
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
Justin Upton, Arizona
NL CENTRAL
Lance Berkman, St. Louis
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati
Matt Holliday, St. Louis
Joey Votto, Cincinnati
NL EAST
Jason Heyward, Atlanta
Hunter Pence, Philadelphia
Hanley Ramirez, Miami
Jose Reyes, Miami
Dan Uggla, Atlanta
Looking at the 13 names on that list, I think you can easily cross off the following names: Bruce (only on list because of raw talent), Heyward (see Bruce, Jay), Ramirez (who knows how that situation plays out, but it doesnt feel right), Reyes (ditto).
So, that leaves the number at nine. Pences obvious advantage over all of those players is playing in a major East Coast market. If hes having a great season, youll know about it. Im not sure the same can be said of Votto, Upton, or Posey.
Kemp looks like an early favorite to win the award. (He should have won it this season.) But there are no guarantees that he can duplicate that personal success or that his team will be any good.
Basically, Pence has about a 10 percent chance. Those are pretty good odds.
4. Storyline
Keep in mind that human beings vote on the MVP award. More specifically, writers vote on the MVP award. And writers are drawn to a good story.
In that department, Berkman or Holliday have an edge because of the Pujols void they would be replacing.
Yet Pence also has an appealing story. He went from worst-to-first. Now, hed be carrying the load for a team with aging, injured veterans that are trying to make a final push toward October glory.
Furthermore, we all know baseball is a goofy game. And Pence looks goofy playing it. The high socks, crazy swing, lets-go-eat persona gives him a hook that can only help his cause.
Im not saying Pence will win the MVP. Im not even certain hell have a good season. But when you take a closer look, hes in as good a position as anyone elsein December.
Casey Feeney produces Phillies Clubhouse for Comcast SportsNet. E-mail Casey at kfeeney@comcastsportsnet.com