Which NLDS path offers least resistance?

Share

We are 160 games into the marathon regular season of Major League Baseball, but the Phillies still have no idea who they will play in the first round of the playoffs.

It could be Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton and those upstart Diamondbacks from Arizona. Or it could be Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and the high-scoring Brewers. Or it could be the St. Louis Cardinals and their triumvirate of dangerous, experienced sluggers.

The only contending team the Phillies are assured of not playing in the NLDS is the Braves. Division rivals cannot face one another in the opening round of October, regardless of record.

Despite the Phillies beating Atlanta Monday for their 100th win of the season, things were made significantly tougher for the Cardinals. St. Louis traveled to Houston and lost, 5-4, in extra innings to the 56-104 Astros. In order for the Cards to make the playoffs outright, they will need to win their remaining two games and have the Braves lose both to the Phillies.

If St. Louis goes 2-0 and Atlanta 1-1, or if St. Louis splits and Atlanta goes 0-2, the teams will tie and face off in a one-game playoff at Busch Stadium.

Barring the completion of a monumental collapse for Atlantawhich was ahead of St. Louis by a whopping 8.5 games at the beginning of the monththe Phils will face whichever division winner that finishes with the worse record.

Both the Brewers and Diamondbacks lost Monday night, leaving Milwaukee one game ahead of Arizona. Thus, the same Braves-Cardinals scenarios for the final two games will decide matters for these clubs.

With the situations outlined, the question becomes Which team poses the least resistance in the NLDS?

It is clear that the Cardinals would be a challenge. If they made it to October theyd be peaking at the perfect time, riding a hot streak to an improbable playoff berth.

More importantly, their 3-4-5 would present a major problem to even the Phillies' starting pitching staff. Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman were the closest thing to Murderers Row in 2011, and only because each of three missed time to injury did the Cardinals stagger until September.

Berkman is a .386 lifetime hitter off of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt with three doubles and a homer in 44 at-bats.

Pujols is a .258 hitter off against the quartet, but his 16 extra-base hits in 128 at-bats are cause for concern. (As is his status as the best hitter in the galaxy).

Hollidays numbers havent been as good against the Phils top pitchers, but he is not exactly the kind of guy youd want to face with two on in the seventh inning of a one-run game.

With Braun and Fielder, the Brewers are the next biggest threat. And with a 1-2-3 of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum, they could potentially be more dangerous in a short series.

Then there are the Diamondbacks, an overachieving squad that has won 90-plus games by receiving slightly-above average performances from each position and an MVP-type campaign from the 24-year-old Upton.

Ian Kennedy could shut the Phils down, as he did April 25 (three-hit shutout with ten strikeouts), but basic numbers aside, Kennedy is a weaker ace than Greinke, Gallardo, or maybe even Marcum. After Kennedy and the similarly-skilled Daniel Hudson, the Dbacks have hittable starters in Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter.

Arizona is the team you want to face. They are less talented and less experienced, sort of like the 2010 Cincinnati Reds, whom the Phillies steamrolled in an NLDS sweep last October.

Regardless of who the Phils play in the NLDS, there is irony in the fact that all throughout the regular season, fans clamor for a team to beat other contendersbut when playoff time comes, the path of least resistance is openly sought.

For more statistical musings from Corey Seidman, visit Brotherly Glove and Phillies Nation.

Contact Us