Eagles Are Unpredictably Predictable in First Round

Eagles Are Unpredictably Predictable in First Round

One word that doesn't quite describe the Eagles in the first round of the NFL Draft under Andy Reid is predictable -- yet, somehow, that's also exactly what they are.

They've traded into the top 20 four times since 2003, while moving out of the first round entirely in back-to-back drafts in '08 and '09. Since 2006, they have only stuck with their original pick once -- last year with Danny Watkins -- and just three times in the last nine drafts. You can never be sure when they're coming or going, or who it is they might be targeting.

Then again, when you look back on all of those recent drafts, they have dropped a fairly big hint as to what they might be targeting in the first round. Some Eagles draft trivia, and perhaps insight, after the jump.

Six of the Eagles' last seven first-round draft picks were linemen -- two offensive, and four defensive linemen. The only exception was Jeremy Maclin in '09, who wound up tumbling out of the top 10, and all the way down to 19, where the Eagles traded up two spots to land him.

If you include top selections that were not made in round one, the addition of Trevor Laws in 2008 bumps the Birds up to seven linemen -- five on defense -- chosen first over the last 10 drafts.

Unfortunately, one reason they've had to draft so many linemen is because quite a few of them have not panned out, particularly over the long haul.

Jerome McDougle (15h in '03) and Shawn Andrews (16th in '04) are both out of the league, though for vastly different reasons. McDougle is the epitome of a bust, a defensive end who achieved no measurable success in the NFL. Andrews at one point may have been the best guard in the NFL, but injuries, and perhaps off-field issues, shortened his career.

Mike Patterson (31st in '05) and Brodrick Bunkley (14th in '06) formed the starting combination at defensive tackle for three seasons. Together they dug a deep trench against the run, but were not so much a factor rushing the quarterback. Patt obviously remains a steady hand for the club, but Bunk was moved last summer to make room for the more versatile Cullen Jenkins.

The jury is still out on their two most recent picks, Brandon Graham (13th in '10) and Watkins (23rd). Graham tore his ACL and required microfracture surgery toward the end of a promising rookie season, and basically missed all of last year while recovering. Watkins wasn't able to crack the starting lineup right away in 2011, but eventually moved in to his spot at right guard, and played well enough there is reason for optimism.

The 47th pick and top choice for Philadelphia after trading their first rounder to the Carolina Panthers in '08, Trevor Laws never amounted to much at all, and remains an unsigned free agent as of this writing.

Even before Andy Reid controlled the Eagles personnel universe, the Birds used the sixth overall selection on Corey Simon in 2000. For five seasons, Simon was a force in the middle, a Pro Bowler even -- the kind of talent that's a bit easier to locate in the top 10, where the team has not chosen since -- but his weight was an issue, which played into contract negotiations that went awry. Simon was allowed to walk, and he would appear in 17 more NFL games over three seasons before calling it quits.

The odds could be in favor of the Eagles taking yet another lineman this month. Clearly they believe that's where the value is, staying true to the timeless philosophy that football games are won up front.

Even after adding Demetress Bell to replace an injured Jason Peters, the front office might try to play it safe on the offensive line in Achilles's aftermath.

Defensive line is even more likely. Patterson is still a questionable fit in Jim Washburn's wide nine, and the backup tackles are all signed through this season only. At end, Graham making a full recovery is no guarantee, and the rest of the talent behind Jason Babin and Trent Cole is questionable.

Even if it's not a lineman, there still could be clues as to the direction the Eagles are headed. The only other positions where first rounders have been used during the Andy Reid era are cornerback, wide receiver, and quarterback.

Lito Sheppard was selected 26th in '02, followed immediately by safety Michael Lewis and corner Sheldon Brown in the second round. There aren't many other examples of the Eagles taking corners high, but they've spent big money in free agency on Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha, so it's been a consistent focus.

Besides using a first on Maclin in '09, Freddie Mitchell was chosen 25th in '01. The Eagles also took DeSean Jackson two picks after Laws in '08, and have used seconds on Reggie Brown, Todd Pinkston, and tight end L.J. Smith in the recent past.

Finally, besides using the second overall selection in the '99 draft on Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb was the club's first choice in '07, trading out of the first round to scoop him up at 36.

Running back, linebacker, and safety are the only prevalent areas where a first round pick has not been utilized -- though all three have been given the attention of multiple second and third round picks.

Tonight's lineup: Odubel Herrera leads off for first time in 84 games

Tonight's lineup: Odubel Herrera leads off for first time in 84 games

A day after going 0 for 5 with five strikeouts, Odubel Herrera is leading off for the Phillies in their series opener Friday night against the Reds (see game notes).

It's the first time Herrera is leading off since last Aug. 19, a span of 84 games.

Cesar Hernandez gets the night off, with Andres Blanco batting second and playing second.

Maikel Franco is back in the six-hole after going 1 for 5 with two strikeouts in the cleanup spot Thursday. Tommy Joseph bats fourth and Michael Saunders fifth.

Cameron Rupp, who walked three times in Thursday's win over the Rockies, catches Aaron Nola and bats seventh.

1. Odubel Herrera, CF
2. Andres Blanco, 2B
3. Aaron Altherr, LF
4. Tommy Joseph, 1B
5. Michael Saunders, RF
6. Maikel Franco, 3B
7. Cameron Rupp, C
8. Freddy Galvis, SS
9. Aaron Nola, P

Phillies-Reds 5 things: Aaron Nola looks to build on extremely impressive return from DL

Phillies-Reds 5 things: Aaron Nola looks to build on extremely impressive return from DL

Phillies (16-29) vs. Reds (22-24)
7:05 p.m. on CSN; streaming live on CSNPhilly.com and the NBC Sports App

Following their first win in a week, the Phillies open a new series this weekend against a beatable team in the Cincinnati Reds, who are 3-9 in their last 12 games and 1-7 in their last eight road games.

Let's have ourselves a look-see:

1. Nola's turn
Aaron Nola is on the mound tonight for his second start since a month-long DL stint. He was extremely impressive his last time out, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings in Pittsburgh.

Nola's fastball reached as high as 95.5 mph against the Pirates, which is notable because he threw only two pitches faster than 94 mph all of last season. His velocity was up before the lower back strain and it's a great sign that the elbow injury which ended his 2016 season is truly in the past.

In Pittsburgh, Nola (2-1, 3.52) threw 19 of 27 first-pitch strikes. He got 11 outs on the first three pitches of at-bats. 

He's faced the Reds twice in his career and dominated them both times, allowing two earned runs in 14 innings with one walk and 17 strikeouts.

Current Reds have gone 7 fo 39 (.179) against him with just two extra-base hits. Joey Votto is 0 for 5.

2. What to do with Odubel
Pete Mackanin has an interesting decision to make this weekend with slumping Odubel Herrera, who on Thursday became the first player in the majors this season to go 0 for 5 with five strikeouts in a game.

Herrera is down to .226 on the season with a .275 on-base percentage. In May, he's hit .194 with one walk and 28 strikeouts.

Mackanin could bench Herrera like he did with Maikel Franco for two games earlier this week. It would send a message to the player that poor at-bats and wild swings have consequences. And, quite frankly, sitting Herrera for a day or two might give the Phillies a better chance to win.

The issue, of course, is that there's a thin line between giving a player a chance to clear his head and ridding him of opportunities to get back on track.

Plus, the Phillies don't have great options in replacing Herrera in the lineup. They have a four-man bench at the moment and the only options would be putting Ty Kelly or Brock Stassi in left field and moving Aaron Altherr to center.

(Update: Mackanin is taking the opposite approach with Herrera, leading him off Friday night.)

Herrera just has not been himself this season and it's troubling. At this point last season, Herrera was hitting .327 with a .901 OPS. He's been an undisciplined hitter in 2017 and when you have two of them in the middle of the lineup in Herrera and Franco, it makes things really easy on pitchers at times.

Herrera started the year hot, hitting in his first eight games. Since then, he's hit .203/.239/.324 in 155 plate appearances with six walks and 42 K's.

3. Tommy time
Tommy Joseph has been one of the very best hitters in baseball this month, batting .329/.400/.671 with six doubles, six homers and 15 RBIs in 22 games.

He's 148 games and 499 plate appearances into his major-league career and has hit .257 with 23 doubles, 28 homers, 69 RBIs and an .804 OPS. That's about 10 points higher than the league average OPS from first basemen over that span.

Had Joseph's April slump continued into May, prospect Rhys Hoskins might have already been called up. But Joseph has done enough so far to hold off Hoskins, who appears to have more upside because of his combination of power and plate selection.

Controlling the strike zone is the next step for Joseph. He has a .311 OBP so far with 33 walks and 112 strikeouts as a Phillie.

But over the last two seasons, he's been one of the few Phils who's taken advantage of this ballpark. Joseph's hit .276 with an .844 OPS at Citizens Bank Park compared to .240 with a .769 OPS on the road.

4. Scouting the Reds
The Phillies face 29-year-old Reds right-hander Tim Adleman (2-2, 6.19).

You look at the ERA and think, OK, maybe the Phillies' bats will wake up tonight. But keep in mind that the Rockies' four starting pitchers this week entered the series with a combined 5.27 ERA and the Phillies scored three runs against them in 27 innings.

There's nothing special about the 6-foot-5 Adleman. He throws his fastball and sinker in the 88 to 91 mph range with a mid-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. His opponents have hit .300 against his fastball and have eight extra-base hits with a .290 batting average against his changeup.

In six starts this season, Adleman's yet to go deeper than six innings. The Phils faced him last season and scored three runs in five innings. Cesar Hernandez went 2 for 2 with a walk and Franco went 1 for 3 with a double.

As for Cincinnati's offense, Votto is obviously the hitter you worry about most. He's hit .299/.422/.591 this season with 12 doubles, 12 homers, 38 RBIs, 35 walks and 24 strikeouts. A typical Votto season.

Shortstop Zack Cozart has been surprisingly hot these first two months, hitting .340 with 20 extra-base hits, 22 walks and 29 strikeouts. It's most surprising to see him walking this much because he never has. He's 15 walks away from matching his career high.

Leftfielder Adam Duvall has killed the Phillies over the last two seasons. He went 5 for 11 with two doubles and a homer in the season-opening series in Cincy and went 8 for 18 with four doubles against them last season.

5. This and that
• Over the last seven games, the Phillies' bullpen has allowed just two earned runs in 22⅔ innings.

• Howie Kendrick started at third base for Lehigh Valley during his rehab assignment Thursday. He was hit by two pitches and removed from the game.  

• Reds closer Raisel Iglesias is one of the most underrated relievers in baseball. He's 8 for 8 in save chances this season with a 0.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He's struck out 28 and allowed just one home run in 24⅔ innings. His ability to go multiple innings is what makes him stand out — he's Andrew Miller-like in that regard. Iglesias has pitched more than one inning in 7 of his 19 appearances.