Eagles Training Camp Preview Part 2: Can Vick Overcome Turnovers to Win the Super Bowl?

Eagles Training Camp Preview Part 2: Can Vick Overcome Turnovers to Win the Super Bowl?

With rookies and selected veterans set to report to Lehigh University in 12 days, we are gearing up for the 2012 football season by examining the three most difficult questions facing the Eagles. Yesterday we asked whether Michael Vick can stay healthy. Next up, can he cut down on turnovers?

When last season ended, there was quite a lively debate as to what cost the Eagles most in 2011: defense or turnovers. Juan Castillo's unit took a lot of the heat, even though some compelling research indicated offense and special teams coughing up the ball so often put his D at a distinct disadvantage -- not to mention still fared better than league average under the circumstances.

We're not here to rehash old stories, but there is no doubt turnovers are highly predictive of success in the NFL. Teams that won the turnover battle during the regular season came away with the W 78.5% of the time, and it's no coincidence 10 out of 12 post-season entrants ranked in the top half of 32 in ball security. It was awfully telling when the Birds finished the year with only three fewer turnovers than the Patriots, Packers, and 49ers combined, all of whom wound up with 13 or more wins.

Of course, this was a huge departure from 2010, when Michael Vick amazingly went a sizable portion of the season without turning the ball over at all. En route to a career year, Vick spread six interceptions and three fumbles lost over 12 games. It was a rebirth the likes of which is rarely seen in an often unforgiving sport, especially for an athlete trying to make a living under center.

Yet somehow, one year later the Eagles committed the second-most turnovers overall, and just as quickly Vick has fallen out of favor, his performance once again the subject of fierce scrutiny. It all happened so fast, you have to wonder what was the cause. Which Vick was for real?

For starters, Vick is taking far too much of the blame for 38 turnovers in 2011, of which less than half actually belong to him. That's correct. Vick was responsible for 14 interceptions and four fumbles lost last season, and while those aren't exactly stellar totals for 13 games, they are at least reasonable.

Of the additional 20, nine were fumbles on offense or special teams that can't be traced to Vick at all -- the rest of the gang needs to tighten up as well. The remaining 11 were interceptions tossed by either Mike Kafka or Vince Young, the latter managing to hurl nine. Part of the issue was eliminated when Young was allowed to leave during free agency, though it speaks again to the broader problem of Vick's recent injuries pressing backups into such a key role. Still, Vick was not directly responsible.

Even a few of the 18 turnovers credited to Vick weren't his fault in the slightest. Two of his picks were catchable balls that hit their intended receivers in the hands, only to be batted into the air for waiting defenders. You can't flag the quarterback on those. Also, one of his fumbles was the result of a hand-off that was disrupted by a defender in the backfield -- Vick's back was turned to an unblocked, 300-lbs. lineman who made the hit before the exchange was complete. Nothing he could do.

And while you want to be careful not to absolve the quarterback of too much, there were at least extenuating circumstances in multiple other instances. Whether heavy pressure forced an errant pass, an official blew the call on the field, or simply a tremendous effort for the defense's part to get their hands on the ball, there were times when the bounces just happened to tilt the other way.

Which, all things being equal, is not so dissimilar to 2010, only in the opposite sense. Although Vick committed an exceptionally low number of turnovers, there were numerous opportunities the other side failed to convert.

The real Vick probably lies somewhere in between '10 and '11. Due to his freestyling, he's never going to protect the ball quite the way a prototypical pocket passer is expected. However, the idea that he is reckless isn't entirely accurate, either.

Vick ranks 18th in career interception percentage among active quarterbacks, throwing a pick 2.8% of the time he attempts a pass, which puts him ahead of two-time Super Bowl-winning QBs Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are only a tenth of a percentage point better than Vick, so it's fair to say he's not exactly a gun slinger -- in fact, quite the opposite. Because he can create plays with his feet, Vick has the tendency not to force the ball as much, opting to make things happen for himself.

The downside is because he scrambles and holds on to the ball too long, Vick is routinely among the league leaders in fumbles. He finished first overall at putting the ball on the carpet for Atlanta in '04, and again in '10 with the Eagles.

Fortunately, the number of loose balls that actually wind up in the hands of a defensive player has not been very high. Vick didn't finish in the top 10 in lost fumbles in either of the past two seasons, and while randomness is certainly a factor here, Vick or his teammates actually have recovered 42 of the 76 fumbles during his career. He can cut down on some of those by becoming a more decisive passer, but the fact is fumbles are part of the equation with any mobile quarterback, and clearly not necessarily a killer.

While history might be on his side, there is no getting away from the fact that regardless of exactly how many were his fault, Vick can improve his ball security, and arguably needs to if he's to take the next step. If you need an example of how that can happen, look no further than inside the NFC East.

While Vick was having a resurgent season in 2010, Eli Manning was having one of his worst. Eli threw 31 picks and lost five fumbles, the Giants led the league in turnovers, and they finished out of the postseason altogether. Last year, he cleaned up his act some, reducing his own turnovers by 15, and the team regressed to the middle of the pack. New York sneaks into the playoffs, and you know the rest.

Lesson learned. No matter who is under center, turnovers can fluctuate from one season to the next. Vick doesn't need to completely reinvent himself, he needs to focus on taking better care of the ball. The evidence suggests he already knows how.

Best of NHL: Patrick Kane hat trick lifts Blackhawks over Coyotes

Best of NHL: Patrick Kane hat trick lifts Blackhawks over Coyotes

CHICAGO -- Patrick Kane scored three goals for his third career hat trick to lead the surging Chicago Blackhawks past the Arizona Coyotes 6-3 on Thursday night for their third straight win and eighth in nine games.

Kane has 23 goals to lead Chicago, which closed within three points behind first-place Minnesota in the Central Division and Western Conference.

Rookies Nick Schmaltz and Ryan Hartman each had a goal and assist. Blackhawks defenseman Michal Rozsival scored his first goal of the season in his first game since Jan. 15.

Chicago captain Jonathan Toews added two assists to extend his points scoring streak to five games and increase his output to 22 points in his past 13.

Jakob Chychrun, Ryan White and Radim Vrbata scored for the Coyotes. Chychrun and Vrbata each scored for the second straight game (see full recap).

Rangers outlast Maple Leafs in shootout
TORONTO -- Mika Zibanejad scored the shootout winner and the New York Rangers continued a strong February with a 2-1 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday night.

Henrik Lundqvist made 32 saves and J.T. Miller scored the game-tying goal in the third period for the Rangers, who improved to 8-1-1 this month.

New York moved into third place in the Metropolitan Division with 80 points.

Connor Brown scored for Toronto, which fell to 1-7 in shootouts this season. Frederik Andersen had a stellar performance in defeat with 37 saves.

The Leafs hold the third playoff spot in the Atlantic Division (68 points), two points back of Ottawa (70) and four back of Montreal (see full recap).

Islanders shut out Canadiens
MONTREAL -- Rookie Anthony Beauvillier scored in the first period, Thomas Greiss made 24 saves, and the New York Islanders beat the Montreal Canadiens 3-0 Thursday night.

Anders Lee scored in the second period and John Tavares added an empty-netter in the final minute to seal the Islanders' third straight win. New York has won the first two games on a crucial nine-game road swing and improved to 12-4-2 since interim coach Doug Weight replaced the fired Jack Capuano.

Josh Bailey and Brock Nelson each had two assists, and Greiss got his third shutout of the season.

Carey Price finished with 21 saves as the Canadiens lost coach Claude Julien's 1,000th NHL game. Montreal is 1-2-0 since Julien replaced Michel Therrien last week and has totaled just 14 goals while going 2-7-1 in the last 10 games, including four shutouts (see full recap).

Best of NBA: Rockets crush Pelicans to spoil Cousins' debut

Best of NBA: Rockets crush Pelicans to spoil Cousins' debut

NEW ORLEANS -- The Boogie-and-Brow era in New Orleans is off to a highly inauspicious start.

The Pelicans' tandem of newly acquired All-Star DeMarcus Cousins and All-Star Game MVP Anthony Davis was no match for the surging Houston Rockets on Thursday night.

Reserve Lou Williams hit seven 3-pointers and scored 27 points in his Rockets debut, and Houston crushed New Orleans, 129-99.

Davis had 29 points, and Cousins finished with 27 points and 14 rebounds. But New Orleans turned the ball over 20 times couldn't keep pace with the firepower of the Rockets, who hit 20 3-pointers.

Eric Gordon scored 19 points and Ryan Anderson added 17 in both players' first game in New Orleans since leaving the Pelicans. James Harden had 13 points and 14 assists (see full recap).

LeBron triple-double powers Cavs past Knicks
CLEVELAND -- LeBron James recorded his 48th career triple-double and Kyrie Irving scored 23 points, leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to a 119-104 victory over the New York Knicks, who hung on to superstar Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose at Thursday's trade deadline.

James scored 18 points and had 13 rebounds with 15 assists for his sixth triple-double of the season.

Anthony, the subject of trade rumors because of a strained relationship with Knicks President of Basketball Operations Phil Jackson, scored 20 points, going 9 of 25 from the field.

Kyle Korver scored 20 points for Cleveland, which is 8-1 in February and has beaten New York 10 straight times.

Courtney Lee had 25 points for New York, which has lost six of seven and is 12th in the Eastern Conference playoff race (see full recap).

Pistons rally from 18 down to beat Hornets in OT
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. -- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 33 points, including three 3-pointers late in the fourth quarter during a pulsating Detroit rally, and the Pistons outlasted the Charlotte Hornets 114-108 in overtime Thursday night.

Caldwell-Pope scored Detroit's last 11 points of regulation, and his 3-pointer with 18.2 seconds to play tied the game at 100. Kemba Walker scored Charlotte's final nine points of the fourth, but the Pistons forced him to give up the ball on the last possession, and Marco Belinelli missed a 3-pointer that could have won it.

Detroit, which was behind by 18 in the third quarter, never trailed in the overtime. Caldwell-Pope's 3-pointer with 55 seconds remaining put the Pistons up 110-102.

Charlotte led 85-70 at the start of the fourth but missed 14 of its first 15 shots in the period, enabling Detroit to cut into the lead.

Walker scored 34 points. Tobias Harris had 25 for the Pistons (see full recap).