History suggests Eagles will take lineman first

How many times have we heard Andy Reid say it?

You build a football team around your two lines.

Reid hasnt just said it. Hes drafted that way, too.

Seven of Reids 11 first-round picks since he got here in 1999 have been linemen -- two offensive linemen, three defensive tackles, two defensive ends.

The Eagles have taken only one skill player in the first round since 2003 -- receiver Jeremy Maclin, who fell in their lap at No. 16 in 2009.

Their Pro Bowl skill players -- LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson -- were second-round picks. Their only homegrown defensive Pro Bowl player, Trent Cole, was a fifth-round pick. Tight end Brent Celek was a five, Jason Avant a four, Nate Allen a two, Todd Herremans a four, etc.

So the philosophy seems clear: Build lines in the first round, find everything else in the second round and beyond.

Nobody knows exactly what the Eagles will do in the first round of the draft Thursday evening, but history says theres a 63 percent chance theyll take a lineman in the first round and a 45 percent chance itll be a defensive lineman. The only NFL teams to draft more defensive linemen in the first round since 1999 are the Jets and Rams, with six each.

Reids only four non-line first-round picks: Donovan McNabb in 1999, Lito Sheppard in 2002 and receivers Freddy Mitchell in 2001 and Maclin in 2009. Linemen early, everything else late.

When you look at the Eagles two lines, they appear sound across the board, but they also appear a little older than Reid likes.

The Eagles current roster has little youth at defensive tackle and offensive tackle. Of the starting defensive tackles, Cullen Jenkins is 31 and Mike Patterson turns 29 in September and is coming off brain surgery. Backup Antonio Dixon is 26, but also coming off a major injury -- a torn triceps that wiped out his 2011 season. At offensive tackle, Jason Peters is 30 and likely out for the year, Todd Herremans turns 30 in October and even interim left tackle Demetress Bell is 28.

The Eagles have a couple young prospects at defensive end -- Brandon Graham is 24, and Philip Hunt is 26 -- but starters Trent Cole (turns 30 in October) and Jason Babin (32) are both older veterans.

Reid loves having at least one young, projected future-starter at every position, and thanks to a combination of factors, he doesnt really have that right now along either line.

Which is why nobody would be shocked if the Eagles draft a lineman in the first round.

Again.

The Eagles are sitting at No. 15 for now.

Now think about this:

Since 2000, the Eagles have picked in the top 15 four times and taken defensive linemen all four times. Thats Corey Simon (sixth in 2000), Jerome McDougle (13th in 2003), Brodrick Bunkley (14th in 2006) and Brandon Graham (13th in 2010).

Will it happen again?

The Eagles can certainly stay at No. 15, where Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones and LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers will quite possibly still be available, trade up into the top 10 for Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox or even get out of No. 15 and trade down into the high 20s for someone like Whitney Mercilus, the Illinois defensive end.

If Reid and general manager Howie Roseman go offensive line at No. 15, it would be the highest the Eagles have taken an offensive lineman under Reid. Tra Thomas was the 11th pick in 1998 and became a fixture at left tackle for a decade.

But the Eagles have taken only two o-linemen in the first round under Reid -- Shawn Andrews at 16 in 2004 and Danny Watkins at 23 last year -- plus Winston Justice in the second round in 2006, Doug Brzezinski in the third round in 1999 and six more o-linemen in the fourth round.

The most likely target if the Eagles go o-line in the first round Thursday night is Iowa offensive tackle Riley Reiff, who is generally considered the No. 2 offensive lineman in the draft behind USCs Matt Kalil -- a likely top-5 pick. Reiff should be there at 15 and could possibly be had a little farther down.

Reiff, a converted tight end and defensive tackle, who stands 6-foot-66 and 300 pounds, would give the Eagles a promising young offensive tackle who might not be ready to step in immediately but could learn under Herremans, serve as possible insurance if Bell is unable to replace Peters capably and eventually take over at one of the tackle spots.

Linemen are boring. Fans love receivers, quarterbacks, cornerbacks, linebackers and running backs.

But if history repeats itself, Thursday night could very well mean another lineman for the Eagles in the first round.

E-mail Reuben Frank at rfrank@comcastsportsnet.com