As we all gear up for three days of draft insanity, heres 25 random draft thoughts for you to ponder, vehemently disagree with, unfollow me on Twitter or maybe even in a few rare cases agree with.
1. Ill be surprised if the Eagles pick at No. 15. I think theyre going to try to trade up for Fletcher Cox, Stephon Gilmore or Michael Floyd or get out of 15, trade down into the early or mid-20s and grab a sliding Janoris Jenkins, a slipping Donta Hightower or an under-valued Rueben Randle.
2. Eagles are one of only 12 NFL teams that hasnt drafted a Pro Bowl defensive player since 2006. Sooooo ... 20 teams have.
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3. Dont think the Eagles pursue Mark Barron. Theyre in a tough position with safeties because they really dont know what they have in Nate Allen and Jaiquawn Jarrett. Allen has looked really good at times and really bad at times and is coming off an injury. Jarrett was just in over his head last year, without an offseason, and theres no way for the Eagles to get a feel for what kind of player he is based on last year. Then theres Kurt Coleman, whos been up and down but is very smart, very instinctive and a natural leader. Remember, Allen is 24, Coleman 23, Jarrett 22. The Eagles likely believe they can get two starters out of those three.
4. Over-under on SEC players Eagles draft is 3 12.
5. If the Eagles can find a way to steal Gilmore or Dre Kirkpatrick, youd have to feel pretty good about their post-Asante cornerback stable.
6. The biggest mistake fans make with young players is making judgments too soon. Way too soon. It seems like Philly has already decided Brandon Graham is a bust when the truth is its too early to determine that. Jason Pierre Pauls tremendous 2011 season certainly looks bad for the Eagles, but Pierre Paul and Graham produced similar results as rookies (4 12 sacks in 16 games for JPP, 3.0 sacks in 13 games for Graham), and Graham clearly wasnt healthy last year after microfracture surgery. Not saying Graham will be a stud. Just that its too early to say he wont be.
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7. Here are five guys the Eagles drafted over the years I was dead wrong about: Mike Bellamy, Siran Stacy, Reggie Brown, Sean Considine, Jack Ikegwuonu. Thought theyd all be flat-out studs.
8. Dont think the Eagles will find a Quarterback of the Future in the middle rounds. But I have no problem with them taking a quarterback, letting Andy Reid, Marty Mornhinweg and Doug Pederson groom him over the next couple years, then trading him for picks. The Packers did it year after year with guys like Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks and Matt Hasselbeck. The Eagles essentially did it with Kevin Kolb. Great way to acquire premium picks with the only investment being a couple years of coaching.
9. Heres a tremendous Eagles mock draft submitted by a guy on Twitter who calls himself @JesusZoidberg:
1 (15) High Motor Defensive End
2 (46) CB that can learn while DRC and Nmandi play
2 (51) White Speedy Outside Linebacker
3 (88) Fast defensive end that others had as a sixth-round guy
4 (114) Running back that is a McCoy clone, just not as good
5 (153) QB of the Future but was a backup where he played
6 (172) TE coming off ACL surgery, before might have been a 1st round pick
6 (194) Starting WLB, cousin of good NFL player
6 (200) Kick returner who hasn't played since 2010, spent 2 years as a Tibetan Monk.
10. The more I listened to Eagles GM Howie Roseman talk about defensive tackles, the smaller I figured the chances were they would take Michael Brockers. Whats the first thing the Eagles look for in a defensive tackle? Pass rush. Penetration. Collapsing the pocket. Brockers is a powerful, consistent defensive tackle with zero baggage. But hes not a pass rusher. And Jim Washburn can do a lot of things, but I dont think he can turn a two-gapper into a pass rusher.
11. Dontari Poe scares me. Id stay away. I dont care how fast he ran at the Combine. When a guy isnt productive on the field, why should he become a premium pick just because of some dazzling drills in shirts and shorts on an otherwise empty field in February?
12. From 1986 through 1988, the Eagles drafted Seth Joyner, Clyde Simmons, Jerome Brown, Eric Allen and Keith Jackson. A combined 18 Pro Bowls.
13. In 1983, the Eagles drafted Michael Haddix when they could have had Dan Marino. Two years later, they drafted Kevin Allen when they could have had Jerry Rice. Imagine Marino throwing to Rice at the Vet for 15 years? Marion Campbell might be in the Hall of Fame.
14. I could see the Eagles going outside linebacker in the second round (assuming they dont take a LB in the first round). West Virginias Bruce Irvin and Nebraskas Lavonte David were both very productive at major schools in strong conferences and could be there mid-second round. Then again ... here is a list of linebackers the Eagles have taken in the first two rounds since 1980 -- actually all in the second round: Jody Schultz, Alonzo Johnson, Jessie Small, James Darling, Barry Gardner, Quinton Caver and Matt McCoy. Combined Pro Bowls: Are you serious? Combined seasons as starters: Nine. Heres the really frightening thingDarling was the best of the bunch.
15. The last linebacker the Eagles drafted in the first two rounds who went to more than one Pro Bowl was Maxie Baughan in 1960.
16. That was a while ago.
17. Dont believe what you read. Syracuses Chandler Jones is not rising on anybodys draft board. The perception that Jonesor any other playeris rising or falling is only a manifestation of the continuous stream of baseless rumors, carefully planned leaks and uninformed speculation that permeates our consciousness in the days before the draft. Nobody is rising or falling. All 32 teams have had their board set for months. Just because a bunch of experts re-do their mock drafts to show a player being drafted higher than a few weeks agobecause a few other experts have already done the samedoesnt mean the player is rising. Remember this: No team benefits if other teams know what theyre going to do.
18. Speaking of Jones, seems like everybody in the last week has rewritten their mock drafts to reflect the Eagles taking the Syracuse defensive end at No. 15. The last time the Eagles picked the mock draft consensus was 2000, with Corey Simon. And that was at No. 6, where much less is left to chance. The simple fact that everybody right now thinks the Eagles are taking Chandler is enough for us to be convinced they wont.
19. Luke Kuechly. Its pronounced KEEK-lee.
20. How bout Oregons LaMichael James if hes there at No. 88 in the third round, which seems like a distinct possibility. Hes got some character issues, some pretty serious ones. And size is a concern. But hes a tough, productive, durable running back with evolved receiving skills. I dont think the Eagles are sold on Dion Lewis as LeSean McCoys backup, and that No. 88 pick could certainly be devoted to a tailback, if the Eagles go heavy on defense with their first- and second-round picks.
21. If the Eagles went defense-defense-defense with their first three picks this weekend, Id be OK with that.
22. Greg Cosells Twitter college player evaluations are the single most valuable pre-draft tool that exists. If you dont follow him, follow him now @GregCosell. If youre not on Twitter, sign up and then follow him!
23. If the Eagles do go offense with one of their second round picks, most likely direction is offensive tackle. There isnt a proven, young offensive tackle on the roster, and Reid and Roseman dont like that. Jason Peters is 30 and facing a long Achilles rehab, Todd Herremans is 29, Demetress Bell is 27 and even King Dunlap turns 27 the week of opening day. The eight years from 1999 through 2006, Reid took nine offensive linemen in the first four rounds. The last five years, hes taken just twolong-gone Mike McGlynn in the fourth round in 2008 and starting right guard Danny Watkins in the first round last year. Could be time for a young Day 2 tackle. This isnt a particularly deep offensive tackle pool, but Ohio States Mike Adams could fall into the Eagles lap in the second round if teams shy away because of his suspension, positive marijuana test and other character issues. And if Mississippis Bobby Massie is still on the board, hed be the guy.
24. Sorry, but trading Asante is one heck of a risky move. How many guys on this defense make plays? Change games? Score touchdowns? And how many do it in the playoffs? I get why theyre doing it. Hes not a press corner. Hes very expensive. Hes 32. Shady needs a contract. DRC and Nnamdi are the projected outside guys this year. And the Eagles will no doubt take a corner early this weekend. Still ... scary move.
25. OK, Roob, how bout shutting up for a minute and giving us a pick? All right, Eagles trade up to 11 with the Chiefs and take Kuechly.
E-mail Reuben Frank at rfrank@comcastsportsnet.com