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Evaluating Freddy Adus Impact on Match Outcomes

Evaluating Freddy Adus Impact on Match Outcomes

By Gordon Strachan
Sons of Benjamin West

In the short history of the Philadelphia Union, no other player has been as polarizing for fans and soccer pundits as Freddy Adu. Freddy has at times over his career been an absolute lightning rod for criticism and speculation, and recent reports and commentaries have maintained this trend. For a quick sampling read Philly Soccer Page’s discussion on “Fixing Freddy,” US Soccer Daily’s snapshot of the current marker in Adu’s career timeline, and Kckrs’ description of a twitter beef between Adu and Alexi Lalas, who’d referred to Freddy as having the practicality of a luxury car.

Criticisms about Freddy’s play on the field are often made in the context of his comparatively high salary and higher expectations as a team leader and former wunderkind, which suggests that perhaps the measuring stick being used to evaluate Freddy may be a slightly different size than that for other players. This is understandable given that in a capped league, dollars spent on Freddy impact the level of talent that can be distributed elsewhere on the pitch.

Meeting with the press this week, interim Coach John Hackworth reminded everyone that he will make roster decisions that are best for the success of the team. Judging by the roughly 10 minutes of playing time that Freddy played last Friday against Real Salt Lake, Hackworth may not be convinced that this always involves Adu.

Has Freddy’s form slipped to the point where benching him produces a better net result? In other words, are the Union currently a better team without him? These are important questions not only as the team clings to a glimmer of 2012 playoff hope, but also as it transitions toward developing next season’s on-field product.

Analyzing Freddy’s impact on a game and his overall contributions to the Union can be done in a variety of ways. However, it might be best to start with some simple metrics as a benchmark. Before analyzing what exactly Freddy is doing to influence matches, we sought to get an idea of the Union’s success when he is simply on the field or not on the field. How has his presence influenced the outcome of matches?

Enabling this analysis is the fact that Freddy isn’t always a common feature on the field, being utilized in only 57% of available minutes this year. The table below lists Freddy’s playing time in each game this season in addition to the games’ results. You don’t have to be a statistician to recognize the trend, though the analysis and take-home points are limited by other factors we’ll discuss afterward.

When Freddy plays more than half the game, the Union have 7 wins, 5 losses, and 1 tie.  When Freddy plays half the game or less, the Union have 1 win, 6 losses, 3 ties.

Interestingly, given the nature of the attacking MF’s game, Freddy’s presence on the field hasn’t produced a higher rate of scoring. But, the team has performed better in terms of goal differential, which is -5 when he is off the field and +3 while he is playing. Soccer is a game of ripple effects. Alter your defense and you will inevitably change your ability to attack, and vice-versa. Accordingly, there are several ways an attacking MF can influence goal differential without physically being involved in activities such as blocking a shot or making an assist or placing the ball in the net. An understanding of how Freddy is going about helping his team or whether he is reaching his potential requires a more in-depth and nuanced discussion about the merits of his game, but in this evaluation, we seek to open the question as to whether Freddy’s presence on the field has been associated with greater success for the Union this season. By the simple metric of game results—arguably the most meaningful stat—he has.

Numerous factors beyond Freddy’s presence obviously influence the outcomes above, including a coaching change on June 13, as well as other additions and subtractions to the starting XI in a season marked by turnover and change since day 1.  And, there is more to influencing score and outcome than merely being on the field. For the purposes of simplicity, we sought only to explore a single variable and whether it impacts larger trends and provides an indication of his contribution to the team.

Tonight, the Union face Columbus Crew. If Freddy is once again left off the starting roster, the pertinent questions will be: How does Hackworth evaluate Freddy’s game, his influence on outcomes, and his role going forward?

Gordon Strachan is a founding member of the Sons of Benjamin West (SOBW), a group of supporters based in Delaware County and centered in Swarthmore. On game day they live in the "West" endline (Section 118).

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CSNPhilly Internship - Advertising/Sales

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CSNPhilly Internship - Advertising/Sales

Position Title: Intern
Department: Advertising/Sales
Company: Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia
# of hours / week: 10 – 20 hours

Deadline: November 20

Basic Function

This position will work closely with the Vice President of Sales in generating revenue through commercial advertisements and sponsorship sales. The intern will gain first-hand sales experience through working with Sales Assistants and AEs on pitches, sales-calls and recapping material.

Duties and Responsibilities

• Assist Account Executive on preparation of Sales Presentations
• Cultivate new account leads for local sales
• Track sponsorships in specified programs
• Assist as point of contact with sponsors on game night set up and pre-game hospitality elements.
• Assist with collection of all proof of performance materials.
• Perform Competitive Network Analysis
• Update Customer database
• Other various projects as assigned

Requirements

1. Good oral and written communication skills.
2. Knowledge of sports.
3. Ability to work non-traditional hours, weekends & holidays
4. Ability to work in a fast-paced, high-pressure environment
5. Must be 19 years of age or older
6. Must be a student in pursuit of an Associate, Bachelor, Master or Juris Doctor degree
7. Must have unrestricted authorization to work in the US
8. Must have sophomore standing or above
9. Must have a 3.0 GPA

Interested students should apply here and specify they're interested in the ad/sales internship.

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Eagles looking at safety options for Sunday vs. Giants

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Eagles looking at safety options for Sunday vs. Giants

The Hamstrung Trio would make for a decent band name. 

It might be music to the Giants' ears. 

As practice kicked off at the NovaCare Complex on Wednesday, the Eagles were without three of their top options at safety. Rodney McLeod, Corey Graham and Jaylen Watkins all stood on the sideline and watched thanks to hamstring injuries they suffered during the Kansas City game (see Injury Update)

That left the Eagles with two healthy safeties: Malcolm Jenkins and Chris Maragos. 

"You never know what's going to happen," Graham said. "You never know the situation. I would like to believe that out of three of us, at least one of us will be able to go. I'm hoping and praying that all three of us are not out (for Sunday's game). We're all just going to get enough treatment. At worst, hopefully, one of us will be ready to go."

Graham, 32, said he suffered his hamstring injury — he thinks — in the second quarter on Sunday and was able to play through the pain. It felt worse the next day. 

The 11-year NFL veteran has been incredibly durable during his career. In fact, he has played in 159 consecutive games (165 with playoffs). Only Pittsburgh's William Gay has a longer consecutive games streak than Graham. 

"That's out of my control obviously," Graham said. "I'm not going to go out there if I feel like I can't help us. But I'm also the type that I can play through some things. I always have in my career. I've had nicks and bruises, things like that. A hamstring is a little different. I've never had a hamstring injury in my life. It's not something I'm used to. My pain tolerance is pretty good though." 

Of the Hamstrung Trio, Graham is the most likely to be able to play on Sunday. But if all three are out, the Eagles will be in the same precarious situation they were in during the 27-20 loss to the Chiefs. 

During that game, Jim Schwartz approached linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill and told him he was one more injury away from entering the game at safety. With the Eagles' numbers at safety still low, Grugier-Hill, mostly a special-teamer, thinks he might get some practice reps at safety later this week. 

"I'm excited. It's a great opportunity for me," he said. "But we want those guys who are injured to come back as soon as possible. I'm excited; they're preparing me for whatever and I'll be prepared for that." 

Before it gets to Grugier-Hill, it's likely special teams ace Maragos would get into the game. Under the former regime, Maragos wasn't completely relegated to special teams. While he played just one defensive snap in 2016, Maragos was on the field for 304 (25.1 percent) in 2015, the last year under Chip Kelly and Billy Davis. 

When the new coaching staff — Doug Pederson and Jim Schwartz — arrived to town, they signed McLeod and clearly saw Maragos as a better fit on just special teams, where he has thrived throughout his career. Maragos took the demotion in stride and actually said it allowed him to focus most of his attention on what has made him so valuable in the NFL. 

"I got a lot of great experience on defense, which is great," he said. "Obviously, for me, I've kind of made a name for myself as a special teamer. Obviously, you run down 100 yards on kickoffs, it's a different type of mentality, it's a different type of win. But if I need to split time with my mindset on defense and special teams, it actually helped me those couple years back, in the event that if I need to do anything, I'll mentally know what to expect."

There will be at least three safeties on the field Thursday afternoon for practice. The Eagles claimed former Bills safety Trae Elston off waivers Wednesday, but it'll be a race to get him ready for Sunday (see story). It's hard to imagine him having a big role. 

So, the three options so far are Maragos, a linebacker, or a guy who wasn't with the team yesterday. Things don't look great. But for whatever reason, Malcolm Jenkins doesn't seem worried. At all (see story)

Jenkins even brought up a fourth option: moving a cornerback to safety. The Eagles often boast about the versatility of their safeties, their ability to also play corner. But Jenkins says it goes the other way too. He said the Eagles' safeties play like slot corners in the majority of their packages anyway and the team has plays where they'll rotate a corner to a deep defender, "which is in turn, the same thing as a safety." 

If the Eagles went with this option, moving a corner to safety, Jenkins recognizes that it would put more on his shoulders. He'd have to make sure everyone was lined up correctly and make the calls. But he thinks they could do it. 

"We've got options," Jenkins said. 

The best option would be to simply get back one member of the Hamstrung Trio back on the field. They're hoping to break up the band.