5 statistics that should (but won’t) end Eagles quarterback debate

5 statistics that should (but won’t) end Eagles quarterback debate

The trendy stat of the day for Michael Vick supporters, Nick Foles detractors, and fence-sitters everywhere: opponents’ record. The opponents in games Vick has started and “finished” (technically he was pulled from the Denver game, but the result was not in question) are 15-7. The record of the two teams Foles has beaten is 0-11.

To which I beg, “STOP!!!” Please, stop it. Never mind the Tampa Bay Bucs had a top 10 defense entering Week 6. That’s not really the point, is it?

I doubt anybody believes these two wins suddenly anoint Nick Foles a franchise quarterback, that they serve as any indication he’ll lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl someday. On the contrary, it doesn’t prove anything about his future at all. We’re talking about right now, who looks like the best quarterback on the roster?

The answer is less about Foles than it is about Vick. Doesn’t the offense just run more smoothly without Vick in the game? Not literally running the football obviously—Vick has 307 yards on the ground himself after all—but are they not more efficient overall? Because the numbers indicate that is indeed the case.

One person in the media explained to me that Vick adds another dimension to the offense, and I actually agree—if that dimension is negative plays and missed opportunities. There’s fewer of each when Foles is under center.

I’m quite certain that wasn’t what that person meant. Regardless, it’s the truth. For just about any measure of efficiency we have, Foles is going to chart as far superior, or at least close. And as a reminder, we’re talking about a second-year pro with seven career starts versus an 11-year veteran with 107 starts. One of these two players actually has a chance to improve.

Basic measures of passer efficiency

These numbers came up yesterday, so I won’t spend too much time harping on them, but they bear repeating.

Foles is completing 67.2 percent of his passes this season, Vick 53.8. To put that in simple terms everybody can quantify, if both quarterbacks drop back 30 times, Vick is completing 16 to Foles’ 20. That’s not an insignificant number. Those four incomplete passes might be the difference between keeping four separate drives alive.

This is not something that has ever or will ever be Vick’s strong suit. The four-time Pro Bowler has completed 59.4 percent since coming to Philly. Earlier this season, he admitted he would like to be at 60. As it stands now, Vick is ranked 32nd out of 35 quarterbacks in completion percentage, but even at 60.0 he would only be 18th. That’s not ideal.

Rounding out the efficiency side of things is passer rating, which is the formula that measures the efficiency of passes attempted taking into account completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Vick is 13th with a 90.6—not bad by any means—but Foles’ 127.9 would rank second behind only Peyton Manning if he had the snaps to qualify.

Scoring/red zone efficiency

We all understand there are ways to massage statistics to build a case for one player over another. Completion percentage and passer rating admittedly don’t take into account Vick’s production as a ball carrier.

Fine, but what could be purer than the number of points an offense puts on the scoreboard under a particular signal-caller?

With three touchdown passes and one on the ground, Foles’ four touchdowns against Tampa Bay were more than the Eagles posted over the previous three games combined under Vick. (If the argument here is quality of opponents, I guess the implication is Vick is not expected to lead scoring drives against good teams?) If you look at the bodies of work over the entire 2013 season, Philadelphia reached the end zone 11 times in roughly 17 quarters with Vick under center compared to seven times in seven quarters with Foles.

Where the difference becomes even more readily apparent though is inside the red zone. CSN’s Reuben Frank wrote an excellent piece on this very subject last week that detailed how Foles has been more productive once the field shrinks—albeit in a limited sample size.

Over the past two years, Vick is 26 for 65 in the red zone for 195 yards with 10 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 74.7 passer rating.

Foles during the same span is 15 for 36 for 91 yards with six TDs, no interceptions and an 88.9 passer rating.

If I may update Roob’s findings, Foles is now 18 for 40 117 yards with eight TDs, no interceptions and a 91.7 passer rating. In 2013, the Eagles are 5 for 14 (35.7%) in the red zone under Vick, 4 for 7 (57.1%) under Foles.

And much like Vick’s low completion percentage, there is history here. In his 28 starts going back to 2011, Vick has committed 12 turnovers in the red zone. How many games does that figure alone cost the Eagles? In what world is that ever acceptable?

Sack %

People typically mean two things when they say Vick adds another dimension. The first one obviously is the threat of No. 7 running with the football.

Well just as completion percentage and passer rating don’t measure rushing yards, neither one measures sacks either, an area where Vick has routinely ranked among the league leaders. The 11-year veteran’s career sack percentage—8.65 percent of all dropbacks—leads all current NFL starters, and only David Carr’s for the Giants is worse among active players.

And if you think all sacks are entirely the fault of the offensive line, consider Vick is the league leader at time holding the ball in the pocket—3.4 seconds on average—according to the metrics site Pro Football Focus. Still, don’t take my word for it. Here’s what Football Outsiders Almanac writes in its introductory chapter every year.

As for pass protection, some quarterbacks have better instincts for the rush than others, and are thus better at getting out of trouble by moving around in the pocket or throwing the ball away. Others will hesitate, hold onto the ball too long, and lose yardage over and over.

Note that “moving around in the pocket” does not necessarily mean “scrambling.” In fact, a scrambling quarterback will often take more sacks than a pocket quarterback, because while he’s running around trying to make something happen, a defensive lineman will catch up with him.

So this season, take Vick’s 87 yards lost on 14 sacks, and subtract those from his rushing yards, because chances are he was at least partially at fault. That leaves him with 220 yards on the ground, which is very good, but then you must also consider how many drives those 14 sacks killed because it set the offense back into an unmanageable down and distance.

Foles has been sacked just twice so far this season. He’s getting the ball out of his hand nearly a full second faster (2.63 s). The lack of negative plays from the quarterback is a big reason why a higher percentage of possessions have resulted in touchdowns under Foles than Vick, because they don’t wind up having to convert as many impossible third downs.

Yards Per Play

The other dimension Vick adds that Foles allegedly doesn’t is big plays down the field. There’s no denying Vick has an incredible arm, and Foles’ deep ball has not exactly impressed. There is more than one way to pick up huge chunks of yards though.

In fact, there isn’t really any truth to the idea the aerial attack has been more explosive under Vick. The incumbent is averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt this season, Foles 8.9. In 2012, Vick’s averaged 6.7 to Foles’ 6.4.

Foles may not be able to throw a ball 70 yards like Vick, but there is no evidence the offense is hampered in any way by that. Look at what happened when he made a simple, accurate, well-timed throw to Riley Cooper five yards away from the line of scrimmage in Tampa Bay—Cooper spun away from the defensive back and raced for 40-plus yards. There's something to be said for that.

Maybe over time this number would favor Vick as Foles builds more of a portfolio, but for right now there really isn’t a significant difference here.

Age, Contract

Okay, age and contract aren’t necessarily statistics in the conventional sense, but they’re certainly relevant to this discussion. Vick is 33-years-old and playing on a one-year contract. Foles is 24 and has two years remaining. Which player has a better chance of contributing in Philadelphia next season? Two years from now? Five years from now?

What this debate ultimately boils down to is there is a young quarterback on the roster playing well and improving seemingly every week versus a flawed 11-year veteran whose ceiling is known. If Vick had clearly outplayed Foles either this year or last or even this summer during training camp and preseason, we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion, but Foles has been step-for-step with Vick at every turn.

Why not give the kid a chance and find out what they’ve got?

It doesn’t matter if Foles fails, because if history is any indication, Vick will too. Vick almost certainly is not the franchise’s quarterback of the future, let alone next year, but with Foles there is a chance they have something more. We just don’t know.

Best of NHL: Crosby scores league-leading 28th goal in win vs. Bruins

Best of NHL: Crosby scores league-leading 28th goal in win vs. Bruins

PITTSBURGH -- Conor Sheary scored two goals, Sidney Crosby added his league-leading 28th and the Pittsburgh Penguins won their fourth straight game, 5-1 over the Boston Bruins 5-1 on Sunday.

Pittsburgh led 2-1 through two periods before breaking out in the third with three goals in a span of 2 minutes, 57 seconds.

Sheary scored his 17th and has nine goals in nine games. Bryan Rust added his 12th and Patric Hornqvist his 11th for the Penguins, who won a season-high seventh straight at home. Pittsburgh the NHL's best home team, is 13-0-1 in its last 14 home games.

Evgeni Malkin had two assists for a season-best seven-game point streak. Crosby added two assists for a three-point game. Matt Murray made 44 saves to win his fourth straight game.

David Krejci scored his 11th for the Bruins, who have lost four straight and five of their last six (see full recap).

Rangers shut out Red Wings in 1-0 OT win
DETROIT -- J.T. Miller scored at 1:56 of overtime to lift the New York Rangers to a 1-0 victory over the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday.

Henrik Lundqvist made 21 saves for his second shutout of the season and 61st of his career. The Rangers managed only 19 shots in a game that featured few memorable chances by either team.

The winner came when Mats Zuccarello and Miller swooped in alone on Detroit goalie Jared Coreau. Zuccarello made a simple pass to Miller, who lifted the puck over Coreau for his 16th goal of the season.

Detroit defenseman Niklas Kronwall played for the first time since Jan. 4, returning from a lower-body injury. The Red Wings put forward Drew Miller on waivers (see full recap).

Atikinson lifts Jackets over Senators in wild OT win
OTTAWA, Ontario -- Cam Atkinson's second goal of the game at 1:09 of overtime lifted the Columbus Blue Jackets a 7-6 win over the Ottawa Senators on Sunday night.

Atkinson had a breakaway after a shot by Senators captain Erik Karlsson missed the Columbus net and went around the boards out to Atkinson, who was at center-ice.

The Blue Jackets trailed 5-3 after two periods before Lukas Sedlak and Matt Calvert scored 31 seconds apart to tie it less than 2 1/2 minutes into the third. Atklnson then gave Columbus a 6-5 lead with 9:10 remaining, before Kyle Turries tied it for Ottawa on the power play less than 2 minutes later.

Nick Foligno, Scott Harrington and Zach Werenski also scored for the Blue Jackets, and Joonas Korpisalo finished with 28 saves.

Zach Smith and Mike Hoffman each had two goals and Mark Stone also scored for the Senators. Mike Condon had 22 saves (see full recap).

Best of NBA: Lakers suffer worst loss in team history

Best of NBA: Lakers suffer worst loss in team history

DALLAS -- Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks had something to prove on Sunday following two straight tough losses.

Coming off a three-point effort in an overtime loss on Friday, Nowitzki scored all 13 of his points in the first half and Dallas gave the Los Angeles Lakers the worst loss in their history, 122-73.

"We didn't show up to play," Lakers coach Luke Walton said. "It's embarrassing for us as a team and for us as an organization. The effort just wasn't there tonight, which I don't understand."

The 49-point defeat just edged Los Angeles' two previous worst losses at 48 points, most recently 123-75 at Utah on March 28, 2016.

The Mavericks' winning margin was the third-largest in their history.

It was Dallas' 13th straight win over the Lakers, who have lost six of their last seven games overall (see full recap).

Curry, Thompson each hit 7 3s, Warriors pull away from Magic
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson each hit seven 3-pointers and the Golden State Warriors won their seventh straight game, beating the Orlando Magic 118-98 on Sunday.

Tied at the half, the Warriors woke up from West Coast time in the second half to pull away. This was the first Eastern time zone noon tip for them since 1995, when they lost by 34 points in Orlando.

Curry went 7 for 13 on 3s and scored 27 points while Thompson as 7 for 9 from behind the arc and had 21 points. The Warriors shot 19 of 42 overall from 3-point range while the Magic went 7 for 28.

After trailing by 11 in the first half and committing a dozen turnovers, the Warriors went into the break even at 50. Curry hit four 3s and had 14 points in the third quarter as the Warriors outscored the Magic 42-24 (see full recap).

Bledsoe's career day leads Suns over Raptors 115-103
TORONTO -- Eric Bledsoe scored a career-high 40 points and had 13 assists and the Phoenix Suns handed the Toronto Raptors their third straight loss, 115-103 on Sunday night.

Bledsoe was 11 of 17 from the floor, including 4 of 7 from 3-point range, and Devin Booker added 20 points as the Suns won their second straight road game following Saturday's win at New York. The victory also completed a season sweep of the Raptors for the first time since 2013-14 and improved Phoenix to 11-6 against Eastern Conference teams this season.

DeMar DeRozan had 22 points for Toronto and Jonas Valanciunas added 16 points and 12 rebounds for his 17th double-double of the season. It's the first time the Raptors have lost three straight since Nov. 6-10, 2015.

Kyle Lowry was ejected with 1:30 left after a flagrant-two foul following contact with the head of Brandon Knight. It capped a night to forget for Lowry, who had 15 points but shot just 5 of 17, including 1 of 9 from 3-point range (see full recap).

Towns carries Wolves past Nuggets, 111-108
MINNEAPOLIS -- Karl-Anthony Towns had 32 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists and hit the go-ahead shot with 42.5 seconds to play to lead the Minnesota Timberwolves to a 111-108 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night.

Towns hit 13 of 19 shots and also had four blocks and Andrew Wiggins scored 24 points in Minnesota's fourth straight home win. Shabazz Muhammad scored 20 points off the bench and the Wolves rallied from nine points down midway through the fourth quarter for the win.

Gary Harris scored 22 points and Nikola Jokic had 18 points and eight rebounds for the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back. Wilson Chandler and Jamal Murray added 17 points each for Denver, which played without Emmanuel Mudiay because of a sore back.

Kris Dunn had 10 points and nine assists for the Wolves while starting for Ricky Rubio, who missed the game to attend his grandmother's funeral (see full recap).