5 statistics that should (but won’t) end Eagles quarterback debate

5 statistics that should (but won’t) end Eagles quarterback debate

The trendy stat of the day for Michael Vick supporters, Nick Foles detractors, and fence-sitters everywhere: opponents’ record. The opponents in games Vick has started and “finished” (technically he was pulled from the Denver game, but the result was not in question) are 15-7. The record of the two teams Foles has beaten is 0-11.

To which I beg, “STOP!!!” Please, stop it. Never mind the Tampa Bay Bucs had a top 10 defense entering Week 6. That’s not really the point, is it?

I doubt anybody believes these two wins suddenly anoint Nick Foles a franchise quarterback, that they serve as any indication he’ll lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl someday. On the contrary, it doesn’t prove anything about his future at all. We’re talking about right now, who looks like the best quarterback on the roster?

The answer is less about Foles than it is about Vick. Doesn’t the offense just run more smoothly without Vick in the game? Not literally running the football obviously—Vick has 307 yards on the ground himself after all—but are they not more efficient overall? Because the numbers indicate that is indeed the case.

One person in the media explained to me that Vick adds another dimension to the offense, and I actually agree—if that dimension is negative plays and missed opportunities. There’s fewer of each when Foles is under center.

I’m quite certain that wasn’t what that person meant. Regardless, it’s the truth. For just about any measure of efficiency we have, Foles is going to chart as far superior, or at least close. And as a reminder, we’re talking about a second-year pro with seven career starts versus an 11-year veteran with 107 starts. One of these two players actually has a chance to improve.

Basic measures of passer efficiency

These numbers came up yesterday, so I won’t spend too much time harping on them, but they bear repeating.

Foles is completing 67.2 percent of his passes this season, Vick 53.8. To put that in simple terms everybody can quantify, if both quarterbacks drop back 30 times, Vick is completing 16 to Foles’ 20. That’s not an insignificant number. Those four incomplete passes might be the difference between keeping four separate drives alive.

This is not something that has ever or will ever be Vick’s strong suit. The four-time Pro Bowler has completed 59.4 percent since coming to Philly. Earlier this season, he admitted he would like to be at 60. As it stands now, Vick is ranked 32nd out of 35 quarterbacks in completion percentage, but even at 60.0 he would only be 18th. That’s not ideal.

Rounding out the efficiency side of things is passer rating, which is the formula that measures the efficiency of passes attempted taking into account completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Vick is 13th with a 90.6—not bad by any means—but Foles’ 127.9 would rank second behind only Peyton Manning if he had the snaps to qualify.

Scoring/red zone efficiency

We all understand there are ways to massage statistics to build a case for one player over another. Completion percentage and passer rating admittedly don’t take into account Vick’s production as a ball carrier.

Fine, but what could be purer than the number of points an offense puts on the scoreboard under a particular signal-caller?

With three touchdown passes and one on the ground, Foles’ four touchdowns against Tampa Bay were more than the Eagles posted over the previous three games combined under Vick. (If the argument here is quality of opponents, I guess the implication is Vick is not expected to lead scoring drives against good teams?) If you look at the bodies of work over the entire 2013 season, Philadelphia reached the end zone 11 times in roughly 17 quarters with Vick under center compared to seven times in seven quarters with Foles.

Where the difference becomes even more readily apparent though is inside the red zone. CSN’s Reuben Frank wrote an excellent piece on this very subject last week that detailed how Foles has been more productive once the field shrinks—albeit in a limited sample size.

Over the past two years, Vick is 26 for 65 in the red zone for 195 yards with 10 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 74.7 passer rating.

Foles during the same span is 15 for 36 for 91 yards with six TDs, no interceptions and an 88.9 passer rating.

If I may update Roob’s findings, Foles is now 18 for 40 117 yards with eight TDs, no interceptions and a 91.7 passer rating. In 2013, the Eagles are 5 for 14 (35.7%) in the red zone under Vick, 4 for 7 (57.1%) under Foles.

And much like Vick’s low completion percentage, there is history here. In his 28 starts going back to 2011, Vick has committed 12 turnovers in the red zone. How many games does that figure alone cost the Eagles? In what world is that ever acceptable?

Sack %

People typically mean two things when they say Vick adds another dimension. The first one obviously is the threat of No. 7 running with the football.

Well just as completion percentage and passer rating don’t measure rushing yards, neither one measures sacks either, an area where Vick has routinely ranked among the league leaders. The 11-year veteran’s career sack percentage—8.65 percent of all dropbacks—leads all current NFL starters, and only David Carr’s for the Giants is worse among active players.

And if you think all sacks are entirely the fault of the offensive line, consider Vick is the league leader at time holding the ball in the pocket—3.4 seconds on average—according to the metrics site Pro Football Focus. Still, don’t take my word for it. Here’s what Football Outsiders Almanac writes in its introductory chapter every year.

As for pass protection, some quarterbacks have better instincts for the rush than others, and are thus better at getting out of trouble by moving around in the pocket or throwing the ball away. Others will hesitate, hold onto the ball too long, and lose yardage over and over.

Note that “moving around in the pocket” does not necessarily mean “scrambling.” In fact, a scrambling quarterback will often take more sacks than a pocket quarterback, because while he’s running around trying to make something happen, a defensive lineman will catch up with him.

So this season, take Vick’s 87 yards lost on 14 sacks, and subtract those from his rushing yards, because chances are he was at least partially at fault. That leaves him with 220 yards on the ground, which is very good, but then you must also consider how many drives those 14 sacks killed because it set the offense back into an unmanageable down and distance.

Foles has been sacked just twice so far this season. He’s getting the ball out of his hand nearly a full second faster (2.63 s). The lack of negative plays from the quarterback is a big reason why a higher percentage of possessions have resulted in touchdowns under Foles than Vick, because they don’t wind up having to convert as many impossible third downs.

Yards Per Play

The other dimension Vick adds that Foles allegedly doesn’t is big plays down the field. There’s no denying Vick has an incredible arm, and Foles’ deep ball has not exactly impressed. There is more than one way to pick up huge chunks of yards though.

In fact, there isn’t really any truth to the idea the aerial attack has been more explosive under Vick. The incumbent is averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt this season, Foles 8.9. In 2012, Vick’s averaged 6.7 to Foles’ 6.4.

Foles may not be able to throw a ball 70 yards like Vick, but there is no evidence the offense is hampered in any way by that. Look at what happened when he made a simple, accurate, well-timed throw to Riley Cooper five yards away from the line of scrimmage in Tampa Bay—Cooper spun away from the defensive back and raced for 40-plus yards. There's something to be said for that.

Maybe over time this number would favor Vick as Foles builds more of a portfolio, but for right now there really isn’t a significant difference here.

Age, Contract

Okay, age and contract aren’t necessarily statistics in the conventional sense, but they’re certainly relevant to this discussion. Vick is 33-years-old and playing on a one-year contract. Foles is 24 and has two years remaining. Which player has a better chance of contributing in Philadelphia next season? Two years from now? Five years from now?

What this debate ultimately boils down to is there is a young quarterback on the roster playing well and improving seemingly every week versus a flawed 11-year veteran whose ceiling is known. If Vick had clearly outplayed Foles either this year or last or even this summer during training camp and preseason, we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion, but Foles has been step-for-step with Vick at every turn.

Why not give the kid a chance and find out what they’ve got?

It doesn’t matter if Foles fails, because if history is any indication, Vick will too. Vick almost certainly is not the franchise’s quarterback of the future, let alone next year, but with Foles there is a chance they have something more. We just don’t know.

NHL Playoffs: Sharks win to reach 1st Stanley Cup Final

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NHL Playoffs: Sharks win to reach 1st Stanley Cup Final

BOX SCORE

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and the rest of the San Jose Sharks gathered around the Campbell Bowl for a celebratory picture after winning the Western Conference final.

In that moment, all those past playoff disappointments and collapses were forgotten. It will take four more wins to put to rest those questions about if they had the fortitude to win it all.

Captain Joe Pavelski scored an early goal, Joel Ward added two more and the Sharks advanced to their first Stanley Cup final in franchise history by beating the St. Louis Blues 5-2 on Wednesday night in Game 6 of the Western Conference final.

"It's a pretty cool feeling," Thornton said. "Obviously it's our first time. It was pretty neat to get this done at home. The fans here have waited so long, 25 years. We've waited 18 years or so. So it's a great feeling."

Joonas Donskoi also scored, Logan Couture had an empty-netter and Martin Jones made 24 saves as a Sharks team notorious for postseason letdowns will play for the championship that has eluded Thornton and Marleau since they entered the league as the top two picks in 1997.

Thornton assisted on Pavelski's goal less than four minutes into the game to set the tone and Marleau had two assists in the third period that set off chants of "We Want The Cup! We Want The Cup!"

"We're just enjoying the ride right now," Marleau said. "We've had some really good teams over the years."

Despite making the playoffs 16 times in 18 seasons and winning the second-most games in the NHL since the start of the 2003-04 season, the Sharks have been known for their soul-crushing playoff disappointments.

They won just three games in three previous trips to the conference final, were knocked out twice in four seasons by a No. 8 seed and most notably blew a 3-0 series lead to lose in the first round to Los Angeles in 2014.

The impact of that loss lasted for a while as San Jose missed the playoffs entirely last season. But led by first-year coach Peter DeBoer and bolstered by some key acquisitions by general manager Doug Wilson, the Sharks recovered this year and are now only four wins from a championship.

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final will be Monday night. The Sharks will either host Tampa Bay or visit Pittsburgh, depending on which team wins Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final Thursday night.

"It's a great moment for those guys who have put in a lot of work but we still have another series to go," Couture said. "We still have four more wins to try to get. It's another step. This is the third one now. We're ready for that next challenge."

With the loss, the Blues' postseason woes continue as the franchise still seeks its first championship and first trip to the Cup final since 1970. Coach Ken Hitchcock's second goalie change of the series did not work as Brian Elliott allowed four goals on 26 shots in his return to the net.

Vladimir Tarasenko, a 40-goal scorer in the regular season, got his first points of the series when he scored twice in the third period but it was too late for the Blues, who still trailed 4-2.

"It stings right now," captain David Backes said. "Six more wins and we're having parades on Market Street. Right now ... not enough."

This was the first time in San Jose's history that the team played with a trip to the Stanley Cup final on the line. The atmosphere in the Shark Tank reflected the high stakes with the fans at a frenzy during pregame introductions and the "Let's Go Sharks!" chants starting soon after the puck dropped.

The Sharks fed off that energy and were buzzing early as Hitchcock predicted before the game. St. Louis nearly silenced the crowd when Alexander Steen got a chance in the slot early in the period but Jones robbed him with a glove save.

That led to a breakaway for Thornton, who missed the net on his chance. But Pavelski recovered the puck behind the net and before Elliott knew what was happening, Pavelski tucked the puck in on a wraparound for his NHL-leading 13th goal of the playoffs.

San Jose added to the lead early in the second when Ward tipped a point shot from Brent Burns past Elliott to make it 2-0.

Ward's second goal and another by Donskoi in the third period removed any drama and allowed the fans to celebrate and the Blues to ponder their missed opportunity.

"They're hurting right now," Hitchcock said. "We're all hurting. "You don't want this to be our best opportunity. You want this to be a building block."

Notes
Marleau played his 165th career playoff game, the most ever for someone who never played in the finals. Thornton is next on the list with 150 games, followed by Curtis Joseph with 133. ... The only franchise that has played longer than San Jose without going to a Cup final is Arizona, which began NHL play as the Winnipeg Jets in 1979-80.

NBA Playoffs: Cavs respond to destroy Raptors in Game 5

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NBA Playoffs: Cavs respond to destroy Raptors in Game 5

BOX SCORE

CLEVELAND -- Back home, the Cavaliers were not hospitable.

They rudely roughed up the Raptors again.

LeBron James scored 23 points then sat the fourth quarter, Kevin Love scored 25, and Cleveland unleashed tenacious defense on Toronto to regain control of the Eastern Conference finals with a 116-78 rout of the Raptors in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

On their court in front of 20,000-plus screaming fans following two straight losses in Canada, the Cavs opened a 34-point lead in the first half and never slowed while taking a 3-2 series lead.

They can clinch their second straight conference title and trip to the NBA Finals with a win in Game 6 on Friday night in Toronto.

"We ought to be able to transfer that on Friday," James said. "Playing in that beast of an arena that we're going to we got to be composed, we got to be tough and we got to be sharp."

The Raptors, who came in with momentum and confidence after winning Games 3 and 4, left Quicken Loans Arena shaken and one loss from having their deepest playoff run stopped.

"They kicked our butts, bottom line," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. "That's been all three ballgames."

James had eight assists and six rebounds in 31 minutes before checking out late in the third quarter with the Cavs up 37. He spent the fourth quarter resting on the bench while Cleveland's reserves finished the romp.

Kyrie Irving added 23 points and he, James and Love outscored the Raptors 43-34 in the first half. Cleveland has won its three games in the series by a combined 88 points.

"They are a different team here," Casey said. "We came in here with a chance to do something special and we didn't get it done. They pushed us around and took what they wanted."

DeMar DeRozan scored 14 points and Kyle Lowry had 13 for the Raptors, who were overwhelmed from the start. Bismack Biyombo had just four rebounds after getting 40 the past two games. The only positive for Toronto was center Jonas Valanciunas, who returned after missing eight straight games with a sprained right ankle. He scored nine points in 18 minutes.

Playing defense as if every possession was the game's last, Cleveland held Toronto to 34 points in the opening half while building a 31-point halftime lead -- the largest in conference finals history. Since their expansion arrival in 1993, the Raptors had never been down by 30 before in any game -- regular or postseason -- at halftime but they have rarely seen a defense like this either.

The Cavs were all over the court, swarming and stifling DeRozan and Lowry, who combined for 67 points in Game 4.

A courtside doctor might have stopped this one in the first half.

Love found his shooting touch after it went missing during the lost weekend in Toronto, where he went just 5 of 23 and was benched for the fourth quarter of Game 4. He finished 8 of 10 from the field, a confidence-boosting performance that should temporarily quiet his critics.

"Kevin Love being Kevin Love," Cavs coach Tyronn Lue said. "He had two bad shooting games and we made a big deal out of it. Nothing he does amazes me. We gotta keep him aggressive all the time."

The Cavs made a point of getting Love the ball right away and he responded by making all four field goal attempts, dropping a 3 late in the first quarter that pushed the Cavs to a 37-19 lead.

"He was just locked in," James said. "We saw that and just wanted to keep giving him the ball. The easiest one he had tonight, he missed."

Cleveland's onslaught continued in the second quarter, and when James got free for an easy two-handed dunk, Cavs fans could relax and begin making TV viewing plans for Friday.

These looked more like the Cavaliers who opened the postseason with 10 straight wins, obliterated the Raptors by a combined 50 points in Games 1 and 2 and given a chance to beat whomever survived in the West.

Center of attention
Valanciunas hadn't played since May 7. He scored two quick baskets in the first quarter when the Raptors were still close.

Tip-ins
Raptors: Dropped to 2-7 on the road in this postseason. ... Played a game every other day since April 29, going 7-7. . Biyombo and Valanciunas are the only teammates with at least 120 rebounds this postseason.

Cavaliers: Trumped their 31-point win in Game 1, which was the previous most lopsided playoff victory in team history. ... James played in his 191st career postseason game, moving him ahead of Magic Johnson for 12th place on the all-time list. ... James (1,320) is tied with Kobe Bryant (1,320) for the second-most free throws in postseason history. Michael Jordan made 1,463. ... Improved to 7-0 at home in these playoffs.

Up next
Game 6 is Friday night in Toronto.

Best of MLB: Walk-off single gives Giants 13th win in last 14 games

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Best of MLB: Walk-off single gives Giants 13th win in last 14 games

SAN FRANCISCO -- Brandon Crawford singled in Matt Duffy with two outs in the 10th inning, and the surging San Francisco Giants beat the San Diego Padres 4-3 Wednesday for their 13th win in 14 games.

Duffy singled off Brad Hand (1-2) with one out, pinch-hitter Hunter Pence popped out, Duffy advanced on a wild pitch and Crawford hit a 1-2 offering over center fielder Jon Jay as Duffy scored standing up.

Crawford also singled and scored after some alert baserunning in the second inning. Duffy and Denard Span drove in runs for the NL West-leading Giants.

San Francisco completed a three-game sweep, extended its winning streak to five and improved to 9-0 against the Padres this season. The Giants' two walkoff wins in the series were against Hand (see full recap).

Arrieta moves to 9-0 in Cubs' win over Cards
ST. LOUIS -- Jake Arrieta remained unbeaten on the season despite allowing as many as four runs for the first time in nearly a year and the Chicago Cubs beat the St. Louis Cardinals 9-8 on Wednesday.

Arrieta (9-0) joined the White Sox's Chris Sale as the only nine-game winners in the majors.

Arrieta allowed four runs in a regular-season game for the first time since June 16, 2015.

Arrieta became the first Cub to win his first nine decisions since Kenny Holtzman in 1967 and it is the best start to a season for the franchise since Jim McCormick went 16-0 in 1886.

Kris Bryant hit a three-run homer and Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist each drove in two for the Cubs (see full recap).

Bradley extends hit streak to 29 in BoSox victory
BOSTON -- Jackie Bradley Jr. extended his major league-best hitting streak to 29 games, Xander Bogaerts homered to extend his hitting streak to 18 games and the Boston Red Sox beat the Colorado Rockies 10-3 on Wednesday night for their fourth straight win.

Travis Shaw had three RBIs and Boston moved to a season-best 12 games over .500. The Red Sox have scored eight or more runs 10 times in their last 14 home games.

Steven Wright (4-4) had another solid outing, giving up three runs, two earned. He has now given up three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts.

Chad Bettis (4-3) held the Red Sox scoreless through three innings but was responsible for seven runs over the next two innings before getting pulled.

The Rockies have lost six of their last seven -- all on the road (see full recap).