Eagles-Broncos highest over-under in 9 years

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Eagles-Broncos highest over-under in 9 years

Eagle Eye: Do the Eagles have a chance against Peyton Manning?

September 24, 2013, 12:30 pm
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The Eagles (462 ypg) and Broncos (487 ypg) boast the NFL's top two offenses. (AP)

The Eagles have the NFL's leading rusher, second-leading receiver and top rushing offense, by nearly 60 yards.

The Broncos are averaging an NFL-high 42.3 points, 486.7 yards and have a quarterback who's thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception.

So it shouldn't be a surprise that next Sunday's meeting in Denver has the highest over-under point total of any NFL game in nine years.

At 58.5, the over-under for Eagles-Broncos is 7.5 points higher than the Eagles' Week 3 game against the Chiefs, which had previously been the season-high. It's also nine points higher than the next-highest Week 4 game (Falcons-Patriots).

The last time a line was this high was 2004, when the Chiefs beat the Raiders, 31-30, with the over-under at 60 points. The largest over-under in NFL history was four years earlier, when the Greatest Show on Turf Rams beat the 49ers, 34-24, with the line set at 63.

The Birds and Broncos are the top two offenses in terms of yardage, but the Broncos have done a better job protecting the ball and scoring in the red zone. Denver has scored touchdows on nine of 11 trips to the red zone and has scored a point on 48.8 percent of its drives.

The Eagles have scored TDs on just three of seven trips to the red zone and scored a point on 36.8 percent of their drives.

Denver has scored 49, 41 and 37 points in three games. It has allowed 27, 23 and 21. The Broncos' 37-21 win over the Raiders on Monday Night Football would have fallen just short of the 58.5-point threshold.

But that was Denver's lowest combined point-total of the season, and the Eagles' offense is significantly better than Oakland's. Even if Peyton Manning chucks three first-quarter touchdowns to put the Broncos up big, Chip Kelly's Michael Vick-LeSean McCoy-DeSean Jackson-centric offense should be able to play catch-up in a way Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden couldn't.

The Eagles scored 63 points in their first two games before being stymied last Thursday night by the Chiefs in a 26-16 loss. They committed five turnovers and blew their only red zone opportunity. But even against a top-tier defense, the Eagles managed 264 rushing yards, their most in 11 years, according to Pro-Football Reference.

All of this to say: Don't be surprised if these teams combine for 60-plus points.

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