Eagles at Falcons
7:10 p.m. on ESPN
Eagles favored by 3
The long, long wait is over — meaningful Eagles football is finally here.
The Birds open their intensely hyped 2015 season on Monday Night Football in Atlanta in what should be their most difficult Week 1 matchup since 2010's opener against the Packers.
Yes, the Eagles are favored tonight, but Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 39-15 at home in his career, and is 7-0 in home openers with a combined score of 200-114 in those games.
If you do the math, that's an average score of 29-16 Falcons. But this Eagles team is far from an average opponent.
Let's get right into five focal points to key on:
Bradford in Atlanta
While the Falcons' offense will test the Eagles (see scouting report), this is actually a pretty good matchup for debuting QB Sam Bradford and the Eagles' offense. The Falcons' defense is devoid of playmakers and lacks any sort of identity (see key matchups).
NFL
Bradford had a stellar preseason, going 10 for 10 for 121 yards with three touchdowns in Green Bay in the third game and leading the Eagles to touchdowns on all four drives he engineered in his two games.
That performance by Bradford in Green Bay alone changed the tone of the summer for the Eagles, not inside the NovaCare Complex but outside it. It created even loftier expectations for the 2015 season and caused the Eagles' Super Bowl odds to jump from 20-to-1 all the way up 8.5-to-1. The Birds enter the season with longer Super Bowl odds than only two teams: the Packers and Seahawks.
Bradford's upside, accuracy and ability to make all the throws are the reasons why Chip Kelly pulled off a stunning offseason swap of Nick Foles and a second-round pick for the former Rams QB. We've seen that accuracy on display in training camp and the preseason, and it could be legitimately dangerous in Kelly's offense, where there always seems to be at least one open man on pass plays and one well-blocked hole in the run game.
Concerns about whether Bradford could absorb a hit after back-to-back knee surgeries were temporarily allayed when he stayed in the pocket to deliver a three-yard TD pass to Trey Burton on 4th-and-goal in the Green Bay game. Burton came over the middle and Bradford pulled the trigger before getting nailed by Packers DB Micah Hyde.
Still, Bradford will need to show that he can get hit multiple times, get back up healthy and stay on his game. It would also be nice to see him move around a little bit. Bradford is no Russell Wilson, but he's faster than people give him credit for. And for as much as Kelly downplays the Eagles' usage of the zone-read, there's no question his offense works better with a QB who can at least provide the threat of tucking the ball and keeping the unblocked defensive end from automatically chasing the running back.
Bradford has faced the Falcons once in the Georgia Dome (2013) and had one of his best career starts, completing 32 of 55 passes for 352 yards with 3 TDs and an interception. He also had a 23-yard rush in that game.
So many Eagles debuts
There are many, many individual Eagles to focus on tonight because this roster was turned over in such a dramatic way. In addition to Bradford, this will be the Eagles debut for RBs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, WRs Nelson Agholor and Miles Austin, LB Kiko Alonso, CBs Byron Maxwell and Eric Rowe and S Walter Thurmond.
Additionally, WR Josh Huff, CB Nolan Carroll, LG Allen Barbre and RG Andrew Gardner figure to get more snaps than ever before as Eagles.
Most NFL teams would struggle to assimilate everyone right away, but that's where the huge number of reps these guys get in Kelly's and Bill Davis' system throughout the spring and summer come into play.
A lot of changes were made, but the team seems better off at every single position except maybe wide receiver and offensive line. But even those groups could be improved if the WR depth makes up for Jeremy Maclin's departure and if Barbre and Gardner can be as solid as the dinged-up guard tandem the Eagles used last season.
It's worth noting that Barbre, who went down for the season in Week 1 last year with an ankle injury, has been praised all throughout the preseason by his offensive linemates.
Running back rotation
Murray, Mathews and Darren Sproles are set to form the NFL's best running back mix. All three are explosive, multifaceted players. All three hit the hole with force, all three can catch, all three get to the second level rapidly, and just as importantly, all three can block.
Everyone wants to know how the RB rotation will work out. Will Murray get a bulk of the carries as his previous workloads and current contract would suggest? Will he be eased into the season as this summer's workload would suggest?
Murray said in early August that he does not expect the RBs to rotate series. And whenever Kelly has been asked about playing time for running backs, he's always deferred to RBs coach Duce Staley, who monitors his players and focuses on sending out the freshest player.
So even though Murray is expected to tote the rock much less than he did last season with Dallas (and that's OK, if it translates to more wins), game flow will determine the breakdown of carries for this trio. Look back to the preseason game in Green Bay as an example. On the Eagles' first drive that night, Murray touched the ball on each of the first four plays. He picked up 25 yards on two rushes and two catches, and at that point Staley sent in Mathews. Mathews rushed once, and on the next play Sproles was in the backfield to catch an eight-yard wheel route for a TD. All three backs were utilized in a perfectly logical way.
Eagles running backs combined for exactly 490 carries and catches last season. That's 30.6 touches per game. That number should increase this season because the backs figure to be more active in the passing game. That's an underrated part of Murray's game.
So if we increase that number to, say, 35 in Week 1, it could shake out like this: 20 touches for Murray, nine for Mathews and six for Sproles.
Secondary test
Thurmond said last week that the Falcons have the best aerial attack the Eagles face this season. The Patriots and Cowboys might raise an eyebrow if they heard that, but there's no questioning the credentials of Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Jones is a game-breaking receiver with elite size and speed. He is capable of taking the top off a defense and also outmuscling corners and safeties on intermediate routes. He's top-five at his position, and it would surprise nobody if he led the NFL in receiving yards in 2015.
Jones has faced the Eagles only twice in his career and not since 2012. The first meeting was his second NFL game and he caught just two of his eight targets for 29 yards. In the second meeting, he caught all five of his targets for 123 yards with a TD. The Falcons won both games.
Ryan faced the Eagles in 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 and went 2-2. In those four games, he went 85 for 143 (59 percent) for 984 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Those 11 TDs are Ryan's most against any non-division opponent, but his completion percentage against the Eagles is five percent below his career average and his 246 yards per game are 10 fewer.
Outside of Jones, Ryan no longer has the weapons he once had. White is a shell of the player he used to be, and this is Ryan's second year without Tony Gonzalez, who averaged 82 catches, 835 yards and seven TDs per season in five years with the Falcons.
The Falcons will certainly try to exploit the Eagles' main defensive weakness, which is guarding the slot. Whether it's Rowe, a safety or E.J. Biggers assuming that role, expect to see the Falcons rotate Jones, White and former Redskins speedster Leonard Hankerson into that spot.
That said, the Eagles' dominant front three (and potentially elite front seven) should be able to pressure a weak offensive line and help the secondary.
The third phase
The Eagles scored 11 return TDs last season, four on defense and seven on special teams. Kelly covets impactful special teams players, Dave Fipp coaches them extremely well and it's shown. The success just no longer seems fluky. The Eagles routinely find big holes in the kick return game, Sproles is electric as a punt returner, and their blocking units create unsettling situations for kickers and punters. When you have to rush kicks, you're more prone to mistakes.
I fully expect the Eagles to score at least one touchdown tonight on defense or special teams. Atlanta has a top-heavy roster that lacks depth, and the Eagles should be able to exploit that.
Kicker Cody Parkey is set to return after missing the Eagles' final two preseason games with a groin injury. Kicking in a dome should help him find a groove.
Fipp's unit will catch a major break, too, as Devin Hester will miss the game with turf toe in his right foot.
It's a win any time you can avoid kicking to the best returner in the history of the NFL.