Sizing up the Eagles' Week 8 matchup with the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona:
When the Eagles have the ball
The Superdome in New Orleans is quite possibly the NFL’s loudest, noisiest, most intimidating dome venue, but University of Phoenix Stadium isn’t far behind. The fans get rowdy there and the noise becomes extremely distracting.
The Cards weren’t very good for much of their 18-year residence at old Sun Devil Stadium, and their fans certainly weren’t known for disturbing the peace. But that’s changed since they moved into their retractable-roof venue in 2006. Since then, more false starts have been called there than any other NFL venue, including CenturyLink Field in Seattle.
Games like these are where Chip Kelly’s blaring practice music may reap the greatest benefit.
The stadium clatter and Cardinals defense will be a test for center David Molk, who’ll start his fourth straight game for Jason Kelce, who could be back in three weeks. Executing the silent snap count and diagnosing Arizona’s multiple-front defense will be Molk’s top priorities. The Cards will show any number of down linemen in their blitz packages and attack from all corners and angles.
If Molk can handle them, the Eagles should be in good shape. If not, it could be a long afternoon.
LeSean McCoy looked like the McCoy of last year against the Giants, breaking out for a season-high 149 yards with five runs of at least 15 yards. The Eagles finally created some lanes up front, some of that from Kelly going under center way more than usual, and McCoy showed the critics that he hadn’t lost the signature burst and sharp cuts that make him the league’s most dangerous open-field runner.
NFL
But the Cards have the NFC's top-ranked run defense, allowing less than 73 yards on the ground, behind only Denver for the NFL lead. They’ve been tough to pound the ball against since Bruce Arians became head coach in 2013 and tabbed former Eagles defensive coordinator Todd Bowles as his defensive coordinator in the desert.
In 22 games under Arians and Bowles, only one running back, Frank Gore, has exceeded 100 rushing yards against the Cards and only two, Gore and Marshawn Lynch, have surpassed 80. McCoy’s 79 rushing yards last year against Arizona at the Linc is the third-best rushing effort against Bowles’ defense since the start of last season.
The Eagles don’t need another Giants-like explosion from McCoy to score points but they need an honest run game, which could be harder to produce if Darren Sproles (knee) doesn’t play. You see a tremendous difference in Nick Foles’ production when the Eagles have some semblance of a running game compared to when they just can’t move the ball.
Foles works best off play action, when the defense has to guess between pass and run, but he struggles with mechanics and reluctance when opponents drop into coverage and can generate a four-man rush against him.
The Cards aren’t a great four-man rush defense, which is why Bowles is a notorious blitzer in the mold of Jim Johnson. They lost Pro Bowl defensive lineman Darnell Dockett before the season and 6-foot-8 defensive end Calais Campbell, their other disruptive force up front, was limited in practice this week with a knee injury.
Arizona’s secondary has playmakers and lock-down personnel, so looks for Foles to work the quick stuff and screens and be selective in his opportunities to strike the deep ball.
When the Cardinals have the ball
Hard to believe we’re already reached the point when Larry Fitzgerald is a No. 3 option. The eight-time Pro Bowl wideout hasn’t cracked 1,000 yards in either of the past two seasons and right now has fewer receptions than Cards running back Andre Ellington and fewer receiving yards than wideout Michael Floyd.
Fitz ranks 67th in the NFL with 283 receiving yards. That’s just hard to believe.
I don’t think Fitzgerald is any less of a threat than he was in 2011, when he went over 1,400 receiving yards. I think his future cap hit (around $24 million in 2015) and the team’s mission to surround QB Carson Palmer with more weapons has led to Fitzgerald’s gradual phase-out of the offense, making it easier for the team to part ways with him in the offseason.
The prognosis for Palmer looked bleak a few weeks ago when he was battling a nerve injury in his shoulder that sidelined him three straight games. He’s since come back strong, completing 67 percent of his passes and tossing four touchdowns in wins over Oakland and Washington. Granted, the Raiders and 'Skins have two of the league’s worst secondaries.
The strength of Arians’ offense so far is ball security. The Cardinals aren’t a prolific scoring team and still have trouble on the offensive line but they have turned the ball over just four times this year and enter this game with a plus-seven turnover ratio, third-best in the league.
Palmer has always been a high-accuracy passer with an average arm who struggles when pressure bears down on him. He’s similar to Eli Manning in his ability to suddenly find a rhythm and complete dangerous throws into tight windows, but he’ll also leave a few up there for grabs. He’s Jekkyl and Hyde, sometimes in the same game.
Last year at the Linc, Palmer was sacked three times, picked off once and had pretty much thrown the Cardinals into a 24-7 third-quarter deficit before he woke up and responded with two late TD passes that turned the rout into a three-point nail-biter. Their comeback ended with three straight Palmer incompletions on the Cards’ final drive.
Special teams
The Eagles can thank this unit for their 5-1 record headed into the bye. They’ve already returned a kickoff and punt for touchdowns and blocked two punts that also turned into touchdowns. Rookie kicker Cody Parkey has been quite the find, with 12 makes in 13 attempts, and veteran punter Donnie Jones already has 14 punts downed inside the 20.
If Sproles can’t play, the Eagles may lean on Jeremy Maclin to return punts. Maclin was an excellent returner in college but just hasn’t translated that success to the pro level. He’s returned 13 career punts for an average of 5.8 yards.
Veteran WR Ted Ginn Jr. was a nice offseason pickup for the Cardinals. The former Ohio State speedster never panned out as a first-round receiver but he’s a dangerous returner. He took a punt back 71 yards for a touchdown against the Giants in Week 2.
The Cards also have a rookie kicker, Chandler Catanzaro, who’s doing well. He’s made all 15 of his attempts, including eight between 40 and 49 yards and one of at least 50.
Intangibles
University of Phoenix Stadium has been a House of Horrors for the Eagles in their two trips there. The first one, everyone remembers. DeSean Jackson’s 62-yard touchdown from Donovan McNabb put the Eagles up 25-24 in the fourth quarter of the 2008 NFC Championship Game until Kurt Warner marched the Cards 72 yards on 14 plays and went ahead on Tim Hightower’s eight-yard TD run. Kevin Curtis dropped McNabb’s fourth-down pass with less than two minutes to play and the Cards were off to their first Super Bowl in team history.
The second one, in 2012, helped march Andy Reid closer to unemployment. Kevin Kolb threw two first-half touchdowns — for the Cardinals — and Michael Vick’s fumble on a keeper going into the end zone just before halftime was returned 93 yards for a touchdown. The Eagles were laughed out of the stadium following a 27-6 loss and finished 4-12 that year, resulting in Big Red’s firing.
This Eagles team seems much more suited to handle the stadium noise and the physical Cards defense. They’ve survived all sorts of adversity this year to be 5-1 and right in the mix for a division title.
Turnovers should be a huge factor. The Cards are very careful with the ball while the Eagles have masked their ball security issues by pulling some rabbits out of their hat on defense and special teams.
Prediction
The Eagles found something in their 27-0 win over the Giants. Along with a rediscovered running game, they finally received the perfect marriage of back-end coverage and front-seven pressure. Not every game is going to have that perfect tempo, but Kelly's had a week to work on the Cardinals and figure out the best course of action to combat their stout run defense. I expect a close game, but I'm taking the Eagles.
Eagles 27, Cards 23