Sizing up the Eagles’ Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas:
When the Eagles have the ball
So far we’ve seen two versions of Mark Sanchez, often in the same game. There’s the one who deftly navigates dirty pockets, resets his feet and makes strong throws between the hashes, and the one who sails passes and pump fakes a little too much.
That’s essentially why Sanchez is 2-1 in his three starts since replacing an injured Nick Foles, with impressive 300-yard passing totals in all three games but also six interceptions and two lost fumbles in about 15 quarters.
The Cowboys' defense is there for the taking if Sanchez can limit turnovers and sharpen his downfield accuracy. Weather and elements won’t be an issue at AT&T Stadium and he shouldn’t be under tremendous pressure.
Dallas is a middle-of-the-pack defense, ranking 16th in total yards and 27th in sacks per pass attempt. The Cowboys are another "Tampa 2" team that will bring a safety down against the run, but leaves them deep against the pass to limit big plays. They’ve mainly benefited from a ball-control offense that has allowed the defense to play far fewer snaps than last season.
Jerry Jones’ annual mismanagement of the salary cap cost Dallas its best pass rushers in the offseason. The Cowboys cut Eagles nemesis DeMarcus Ware, a future Hall of Famer, and let DT Jason Hatcher, their best pass rusher last year, walk to rival Washington because they couldn’t afford to keep either.
They have no real pass-rushing threat, but defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has done an excellent job getting a bunch of lunch-pail guys to play over their heads. Defensive tackle Henry Melton, a former Bear, leads the team with five sacks, just two shy of a career high. Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 third-round pick from Boise St., can be a headache.
NFL
Middle linebacker Rolando McLain has been a nice resurrection story. After flaming out with the Raiders and giving up on his second chance with the Ravens, the troubled former No. 8 overall pick seems to have resolved his personal turmoil and emerged into a legitimate NFL linebacker. McLain has played the run awfully tough and helped ease the loss of Pro Bowl inside linebacker Sean Lee, who tore his ACL in the spring.
The Cowboys should shudder at the sight of Darren Sproles, who played them twice in the past seasons with New Orleans and combined for 240 total yards and two touchdowns. Sproles has been an especially tough mismatch against Dallas’ pass defense. He had seven catches for 104 yards in a 2012 game and seven more receptions for 76 yards last year, including a 28-yard reception.
LeSean McCoy has likewise added Dallas prominently to his career highlight tape. In his three career 100-yard rushing games against the Cowboys, McCoy has gone for 185, 149 and 131 yards. The latter two took place at AT&T Stadium, the other is McCoy’s second-highest career total.
The running game broke out against the Titans. I suspect Chip Kelly will look to get McCoy and Sproles going early against the Cowboys.
When the Cowboys have the ball
Hearing the Eagles’ defensive line dismiss the attention received by the Cowboys’ offensive line was interesting. The front three clearly hasn’t bought into hype around the Dallas offense despite the stats.
It was hard not to be impressed Sunday night by the sight of Tony Romo having enough time to make a sandwich in the pocket on the game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter of Dallas’ comeback win against the Giants at the Meadowlands.
The Giants didn’t get close enough to sniff Romo’s jersey. The Eagles can’t do the same and expect to win.
I can understand the defensive line’s sentiment about the Dallas offensive line. Last year, DeMarco Murray rattled off rushing efforts of 146, 134 and 96 rushing yards in consecutive games leading up to the season finale against the Eagles. Then he managed just 48 yards on 17 carries in the loss to the Eagles, an average of 2.8 yards per carry.
The Birds basically shut him down, and still have allowed just two 100-yard rushers since the start of last year, but still had to hear this week about how great Murray and the Dallas O-line is.
It’s basically the same line as last year except for the addition of former Notre Dame lineman Zach Martin, a first-round pick who started at right guard from Day 1. He’s the third first-round pick on the line, joining left tackle Tyron Smith and center Travis Frederick. With those three anchoring the offense, Dallas has become a dominant rushing team that averages just about 150 rushing yards per game.
Murray, who’s had at least 100 rushing yards in all but one game, leads the NFL by a landslide. His 1,354 yards are 403 more than second-leading rusher Le’Veon Bell. Murray could take the rest of the season off and still potentially win the rushing title.
With offensive coordinator Bill Callahan now calling the plays, the Cowboys have morphed from an inconsistent offense that leaned too heavily on Romo to a ball-control squad that balances Murray’s runs with Romo’s connections to his Pro Bowl tandem of pass catchers, tight end Jason Witten and wide receiver Dez Bryant.
The balance has helped limit Romo’s turnovers. He’s thrown just two picks in the past eight games. Romo’s lowest passer rating since a rocky opener against San Francisco is 93.5. He has six ratings this year of at least 110.2 and is coming off back-to-back ratings of better than 138.7.
Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis has almost no choice but to bring a safety into the box to stop Murray and take his chances on the outsides with corners Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher matched against Bryant (879 yards, 10 TDs) and Terrance Williams.
Davis tried the same strategy against the Packers and paid the price dearly, but the short turnaround left him little time to cook up major curveballs for Dallas. It’s essential that the Eagles generate a better pass rush against Dallas than they did against Green Bay.
If they can’t get to Romo, they don’t stand a chance.
Special teams
Sproles figures to be more than just an offensive weapon in this game. Dallas has the NFL’s 26th-ranked punt coverage unit. Sproles averages 14.9 yards per punt return, tops in the league among players with at least eight returns.
Cowboys return specialist Dwayne Harris is one of the league’s best. He returns both kicks and punts and Dallas ranks top-10 in each category. He had a punt return TD in each of the past two seasons going into this year, including a 78-yarder against the Eagles at the Linc in 2012.
Intangibles
This game never seems to follow the script. We can talk about Fletcher versus Bryant or the Cowboys' run defense against McCoy, but conventional wisdom never seems to apply when these teams clash.
Last year, the Eagles were giving up yards and points by the boatload until Dallas came to town and scored just 17. The Cowboys won because Nick Foles channeled his inner Mike McMahon. Foles then bounced back and won seven of his last eight starts, setting one record after another along the way.
When they met in the season finale, the Cowboys' defense had become a laughingstock and Romo’s back injury thrust Kyle Orton into the start. The Eagles should have won the game by getting off the bus, but squeezed out a 24-22 win.
What’s that mean for Thursday? Just expect the unexpected.
Prediction
The Cowboys are playing with more consistency, they’re at home and they have the better quarterback. That’s usually a recipe for victory. But as I just mentioned, this game doesn’t often go according to Hoyle.
I think that trend continues with a low-scoring, defensive slugfest that the Eagles somehow manage to eke out.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20