Sizing up the game between the Eagles (4-1) and New York Giants (3-2) Sunday night at the Linc.
When the Eagles have the ball
When the Eagles protect the ball, their offense is practically impossible to stop. Despite their many flaws, they’re averaging 31.2 points per game, second-best in the NFL.Problem is, they’ve been terrible in ball security over the past two games and they’re squaring off against a Giants defense that has produced an NFL-most 10 takeaways during the team’s three-game win streak.
The Eagles have produced five turnovers in the past three weeks, not to mention two blocked punt touchdowns, but they’ve given the ball away eight times. Five of those turnovers have been on fumbles. They can live with a mediocre running game and Nick Foles’ mechanical issues as long as they secure the ball because they have enough weapons to move the chains. They can score 28 points by accident if they play a clean game.
If they don’t fumble twice in 49ers territory two weeks ago, they probably come out of Santa Clara with an unbeaten record. If Foles doesn’t slide head-first against St. Louis and lose the ball as he wilted to the ground, that Rams’ near-comeback probably doesn’t happen.
LeSean McCoy also fumbled, first holding the ball like a loaf of bread as he played Frogger through oncoming defenders and then losing the ball on the way down. McCoy has already resembled an ordinary NFL running back for most of the season and he’s about to face the one team that found an antidote for his prolific runs last season.
The Giants limited McCoy to 94 yards on 35 carries last year, an average of 2.68 yards per carry. Against the rest of the league, he averaged 5.42 yards per carry, more than twice his average against New York.
Some of the responsibility for McCoy’s low rushing total fell on the offensive line, which had trouble picking up run stunts and allowed too much penetration. With backups still at left guard and center, figure on Chip Kelly devising schemes the Giants haven’t yet seen from his team to keep the defense from caving in on McCoy.
NFL
The Giants don’t have their usual threesome of pass rushers as they’ve had in their heyday, but All-Pro defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is much more imposing this year than last season when he came off back surgery and wasn’t nearly the presence he’d been in the past.
Second-year defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins is a load in the middle. He’s 325 pounds but moves well and leads the team with 2.5 sacks. The Giants let past-his-prime Justin Tuck walk in free agency and brought in veteran Robert Ayers, who can still supply some pressure.
I don’t see the Giants' pass rush being a major problem for the Eagles. For all their offensive line injuries, Foles has been sacked once in the past four games. He just needs to trust his protection a little more and plant his feet on deep throws.The Giants have an improved secondary, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara manning the outside corner spots, but they’re banged up at linebacker and nickel corner, so figure on Zach Ertz re-emerging and either Darren Sproles or Jordan Matthews finding space across the middle.
When the Giants have the ball
There are two Eli Mannings — the one who looks extremely mediocre and is turnover-prone when pressure bears down on him and the one who suddenly warms up and rides his hot hand to Super Bowl MVPs.Last year was the bad Manning. He led the NFL in interceptions (for the third time), registered his lowest completion percentage in six years (57.5 percent) and posted a passer rating under 70.0 for the first time as a full-time starter.
This year, after a rough first two games in new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s West Coast offense, Manning is back to his winning ways. The Giants are riding one of the league’s hottest right arms.
Remember the league-wide guffaw when the Giants challenged Manning to complete 70 percent of his passes? In the past three games, Manning has completed 70.1 percent of his throws. Consequently, the Giants are tied for the most points scored in that time frame with 105, an average of 35 points per game.
Manning had four interceptions on his first 72 passes and it looked the Giants were doomed to repeat their failures from 2013, but he’s responded with just one pick on his last 97 attempts along with eight TD passes.
The Giants rebuilt their interior offensive line in free agency. Although offensive guard Geoff Schwartz is still out, the line has held up better than last year’s unit did. Left tackle Will Beatty has bounced back from an awful 2013. Second-year pro Justin Pugh, a first-round pick from Syracuse, has become a solid player at right tackle. Manning has been sacked only seven times, once in each of the past three games.
The Eagles must win the battle of the trenches. If they can get into favorable pass-rushing downs and apply some heat on Manning, they’ll be in good shape. If not, they’ll just get picked apart.Prolific slot WR Victor Cruz, a longtime Eagles nemesis, has gone over 100 yards in two of his past three games and rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. stormed onto the scene in his debut last Sunday, catching four passes for 44 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons.
Special teams
It’s not an accident that the Eagles have blocked punts in consecutive weeks and have two return touchdowns. Kelly prioritized special teams improvement in free agency, signing special teams mavens Chris Maragos and Bryan Braman to upgrade blocking and tackling and trading for Sproles, an accomplished returner. Meanwhile, a reborn Brandon Graham has become a dominant force in kickoff coverage.
With Chris Polk sidelined by a hamstring inury, a finally healthy Josh Huff will return kicks against the Giants.
The Giants rank 21st in punt return and 25th in kickoff return, although Beckham could give them a boost there. He returned only one punt last week against the Falcons in his season debut. The team had big plans for him as a returner but Beckham missed most of training camp and the first few weeks of the season with a hamstring injury.
Conversely, the Giants have the NFL’s fourth-worst punt coverage unit and have allowed a 71-yard punt return for a touchdown.
Intangibles
Everyone knows about the Eagles’ injuries at linebacker and offensive line, but the Giants are battling some major ones, too. They just lost running back Rashad Jennings for several weeks with a knee sprain. Jennings is the league’s fourth-leading rusher. Without him, the Giants have to lean heavily on rookie running back Andre Williams. Big Blue also lost slot corner Walter Thurmond for the year with a torn pectoral muscle. Meanwhile, linebacker Jon Beason (foot) and Rodgers-Cromartie (leg) have been limited in practice.
Prediction
There’s been somewhat of a roof-caving-in mentality in the Delaware Valley after the Eagles haven’t looked sharp in all phases for two consecutive weeks. I tend to be a glass-half-full guy in these cases. The Eagles haven’t played their best, but they’re 4-1. Until the roof actually collapses, I’ll stay on the bandwagon.
Eagles 30, Giants 26