Sizing up the Eagles' Week 11 matchup with the Packers in Green Bay:
When the Eagles have the ball
This is one of those games where conventional wisdom says to slow down tempo and play clock control to keep a future Hall of Fame quarterback on the other sideline for as long as possible.
I just don’t think Chip Kelly ever thinks that way. It’s not in his DNA to bow down to an opponent’s offense.
So even in frigid temps and with the NFL’s 30th-ranked run defense across from scrimmage, I’d still expect Kelly to come out passing like he did against the Cardinals and Panthers, two other teams that struggled to stop the run.
I was certain Kelly would get LeSean McCoy going early Monday night. The Panthers carried the 26th-ranked run defense into the game and the Eagles were turning to Mark Sanchez. Instead, Kelly's first six calls were passes. Sanchez threw 21 times in the first half compared to just eight runs between McCoy and Darren Sproles.
Some of Kelly’s rationale is simply responding to the way defenses are playing his team. The Panthers, who don’t have great man personnel, played eight in the box and hit the Eagles with man coverage. They paid the price when Sanchez threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns without a pick.
McCoy has two really nice games this season, 149 yards against the Giants and 117 against the Texans, but he’s been ordinary or worse in the seven others. I don’t think he’s lost a step but I think defenses have set their sights on taking him out of the game. If they get beat by the pass, so be it. You can’t stop everyone.
NFL
In a game like this, Sanchez will have to perform better than he did against the Panthers. For his first start in almost two years, Sanchez made some terrific throws and really navigated the pocket better than Nick Foles has this year.
But Sanchez also completed just 54 percent of his throws, normal for him but low for a quarterback in Kelly’s offense. Two or three of his passes hit the Panthers' defensive backs in the hands but weren’t caught. Replace those Panthers D-backs with Packers corners Tramon Williams or Sam Shields and it might be a different outcome.
Plenty of the attention in Green Bay this week centered on All-Pro linebacker Clay Matthews’ sudden move to inside linebacker in base downs to help shore up the team’s abysmal run defense. Matthews responded with 11 tackles and a sack against the Bears, playing inside and outside.
But the more significant maneuver might have been safety Micah Hyde’s insertion at nickel corner over Casey Heyward. Hyde gives the Packers more size in the nickel and should help Green Bay defend the Eagles’ running game along with the slot combination of WR Jordan Matthews and TE Zach Ertz.
Teams that can stay in nickel against the Eagles without losing their edge in run defense have an upper hand. There just aren’t many teams that can pull it off.
The Packers have the flexibility to move Matthews inside because they signed Pro Bowl pass rusher Julius Peppers away from the rival Bears to play stand-up outside linebacker. Peppers, who’s 34, can still bring it. He has five sacks, two forced fumble and returned his only interception 49 yards for a touchdown.
If the Packers get their defense going they’ll be a Super Bowl favorite, especially with an offense that’s almost unstoppable. Right now, they rank 23rd in yards per game allowed (371.7) and 16th in scoring defense (22.8 points per game). But only five teams have more takeaways.
When the Packers have the ball
Peyton Manning is the game’s best passer, Tom Brady is the game’s ultimate winner and Andrew Luck is on his way to becoming the sport’s most complete quarterback.
But right now the title belongs to Aaron Rodgers. He’s the guy almost every NFL defensive player will tell you is the most flawless QB in the game.
Rodgers has it all — the rocket arm, pocket mobility, downfield vision, intellect and the innate instincts that enable him to make virtually any throw from anywhere on the field against any kind of defense.
He can zip it from the pocket 50 yards downfield or sidearm a pass through traffic while flushed right or left. And that’s just his physical abilities. There isn’t a disguised blitz or coverage he hasn’t recognized and picked apart. He really is the total package.
The Eagles were lucky last year to venture into Lambeau Field while Rodgers was sidelined with a fractured clavicle — the same injury shelving Foles right now. The Packers were saddled with Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien at quarterback, both of whom played in the Eagles’ 27-13 win.
During that stretch, Green Bay leaned heavily on bruising rookie running back Eddie Lacy, who rushed for 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. These days, the Packers have re-shifted back to a lethal passing team with Rodgers beginning to run away with the league MVP award.
Rodgers, coming off his six-touchdown masterpiece against the Bears on national TV last Sunday, is the league’s highest-rated passer (120.1). He’s thrown just one fewer touchdown than Luck and four fewer than Manning but he’s attempted 116 fewer passes than the Colts’ quarterback and 76 fewer than the reigning MVP.
His top target is Jordy Nelson, who does almost all of his damage from the slot. Nelson already has 56 catches for 889 yards and eight touchdowns. Outside WR Randall Cobb has added 44 catches for 650 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Eagles CBs Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher have battled better since their fourth-quarter meltdowns against the Rams, but the symmetry between Rodgers and his two major receiving weapons is just scary.
Rodgers also has a stable of tight ends he likes to move the chains with, including former Penn State standout tight end Andrew Quarless (17-145-3). Expect to see the Eagles get into their dime package when the opportunity is presented. It’s been an effective element of the team’s coverage and pass rush.
If the Eagles stand any chance of winning, they’ll need the kind of pressure from the front seven like they generated against the Panthers. The Packers are a little banged up on the offensive line and Rodgers was sacked 10 times in the four games leading up to their Chicago blowout.
The Packers have mediocre athletes in LT David Bakhtiari and RT Bryan Bulaga, but Rodgers’ brilliance bails them out. The Eagles have tremendous speed around the edges with Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry and Connor Barwin. All three have been unblockable lately and could really disrupt Rodgers’ rhythm if they can get on him quickly.
Special teams
We’re about to see if Sproles, who played most of his career in San Diego’s comfy climates or inside the Superdome, has the same game-breaking abilities on frozen tundra. The Packers have the NFL’s fifth-best punt coverage squad.
Chris Polk went back to returning kicks against Carolina, although he didn’t field any. He seems the right guy for a cold-weather game. I’d want the tough, gritty guy who can break tackles over the faster, shiftier Josh Huff.
Only five of Cody Parkey’s eight kicks Monday night were touchbacks, also something to monitor as the weather turns. Longtime Packers kicker Mason Crosby has nailed just under 93 percent of his attempts this year, on pace for a personal best. He’s made all of his attempts of 40 or more yards.
Intangibles
The Packers just don’t lose at home when Rodgers is healthy and under center. They haven’t lost at Lambeau in a game Rodgers started and finished since the 2012 season opener against San Francisco, a span of 15 games.
In four home games this year Rodgers has 15 touchdowns without an interception. He hasn’t been picked off at Lambeau since Week 13 of the 2012 season, a streak of 286 passes.
The Packers average just under 42 points per game at home, tops in the NFL, and they’ve outscored opponents at Lambeau by 101 points, also the NFL’s largest home win margin.
And here’s a scary thought: If the Eagles and Packers each finish in the same place in their respective divisions, the Eagles will have another trip scheduled to Lambeau in 2015.
Prediction
I think the Eagles have a really good thing going but the intangibles section says all you need to know. The Packers don’t lose in Green Bay when Rodgers is healthy.
Packers 28, Eagles 23