Didinger: Eagles-Patriots Scouting Report

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Sizing up Sundays game between the Eagles (4-6) and the New England Patriots (7-3) at Lincoln Financial Field.

When the Eagles have the ball
Whether it is Mike Vick or Vince Young at the controls, the Eagles game plan will be the same. They have to attack the New England defense, especially the secondary which has been burned repeatedly this season. The Patriots rank last in overall defense (they already have allowed more than 4,000 yards) and last in pass defense (allowing almost 300 yards per game).

It is shocking, really, to see a Bill Belichick defense that is this porous. Belichick is one of the best defensive strategists of the modern era and he has tweaked some things in the last few weeks that helped, but this is still a poor coverage team. Kyle Arrington leads the team with seven interceptions and he is a refugee from the Eagles practice squad (2008).

Rodney Harrison, who played safety for the Patriots when they defeated the Eagles in the Super Bowl, has commented that Patrick Chung is the best player in the secondary but he is not being used properly. Harrison, now an NBC football analyst, feels Chung, the free safety, should be used more as a blitzer, but Belichick keeps him in deep coverage most of the time. Harrison said that is because Belichick doesnt have confidence in the other players. He needs Chung in centerfield to cover for them.

Watching the New England defense on tape, it is hard to argue. Devin McCourty, a first round pick in 2010, starts at one corner opposite Arrington and his play is up and down, now he is nursing a shoulder injury. Josh Barrett, who was cut by Denver, and James Ihedigbo, who was cut by the New York Jets, have split time at strong safety. The nickel backs are Phillip Adams, who was waived by San Francisco, and Antwaun Molden, who was cut by Houston.

It is a secondary of retreads and castoffs and you can blame Belichick for drafting poorly in that area the past few years. Now he has to work around it and the only way to do that is to get a big pass rush. If the quarterback does not have time to scan the field, he wont be able to exploit all those weaknesses.

The Patriots still arent great in that areathey rank 23rd in sacks per pass attemptbut they have shown improvement recently. They sacked Mark Sanchez of the Jets five times in a 37-16 win two weeks ago and added three more sacks in the 34-3 rout of Kansas City on Monday. Ends Andre Carter (nine sacks) and Mark Anderson (seven) provide the rush off the edge and it will be their responsibility to keep the Eagles quarterback whether it is Vick or Young in the pocket. While the matchup of the Eagles receivers against the Patriots linebackers and secondary clearly favors the EaglesDeSean Jackson could have a very big gamethe matchup in the middle favors New England. Defensive tackle Vince Wilfolk is one of the best in the business and he will be a handful for rookie center Jason Kelce. Wilfork outweighs Kelce by at least 50 pounds so good luck moving him off the line.

The Eagles have the NFLs No. 1 rushing offense and LeSean McCoy leads the league with 1,019 yards, a healthy 5.4 yard average, so look for them to continue running their stretch play which looks better now than it did earlier in the season. On the stretch play, the defensive line has to move laterally which will make it easy to get around Wilfork rather than running right at him.

When the Patriots have the ball
The New England offense poses major problems for the Eagles, starting with quarterback Tom Brady who is 3-0 lifetime against them including the Super Bowl. Brady has thrown more interceptions this season (10) than most years, but he still is putting up big numbers (25 touchdown passes).

It is well documented the Eagles have trouble covering tight ends and the Patriots come to town with two very good ones: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. How the Eagles cover themor fail to cover themcould well determine the outcome of the game. They are that important to the New England offense.

The Patriots can run the ball a little bit with BenJarvus Green-Ellis (541 yards, 4.0 yard average), Danny Woodhead (213 yards, 4.3 average) and Stevan Ridley (194 yards, 5.4 average), but thats not what they are, really. This is an offense that wants to spread you out and win the battle of matchups in the passing game and thats where the Eagles could be in trouble.

The Patriots have three main weapons in the passing game: the two tight ends and slot receiver Wes Welker. Welker leads the league with 74 catches for 1,028 yards and six touchdowns. Gronkowski has 56 catches for 805 yards and 10 touchdowns. Hernandez has 41 catches for 418 yards and five touchdowns. Those are dizzying numbers through ten games.

Gronkowski and Hernandez dont play like other tight ends. They are faster than most and extremely athletic. Check out Gronkowskis 57-yard touchdown in Mondays win over Kansas City. He outran two defenders and tight-roped the sideline for the final ten yards and he is 6-8 and 265 pounds. Hernandez is smaller (6-1 and 240) but he explodes off the line like a wide receiver. Together, they stretch the defense and create space for Welker underneath.

With that personnel, the Patriots can line up in formations no other team would use and that makes it extremely challenging for a team like the Eagles that doesnt see them very often. This will be a real test for defensive coordinator Juan Castillo to have his players fully schooled on what they are going to see Sunday. If someone blows an assignment or has one of those I-thought-you-had-him lapses, it will be six points for the Pats because Brady does not miss those opportunities.

How will the Eagles match up against Gronkowski and Hernandez? Will they try to cover them with linebackers Brian Rolle and Jamar Chaney? That sounds like a bad idea. What about safeties Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen? Would Castillo put Nnamdi Asomugha on one of the tight ends and let nickel back Joselio Hanson play Welker, his old Texas Tech teammate, in the slot? Something tells me Castillo has not slept much this week.

The Eagles best chance to slow down the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady, lots of it. Other teams had success getting to him (he has been sacked 19 times) and if you smack him around, it does throw off the timing in the passing game. The Eagles have to turn up the heat on Brady in the same way they hurried Eli Manning on Sunday. They went with a four man rush (they only blitzed once) and it was very effective.

Special teams
DeSean Jackson finally broke a long punt return (51 yards) to set up a touchdown in the win over the Giants. It would help if he could do it again Sunday in what figures to be a high scoring game. Julian Edelman had a 72-yard return for a touchdown against Kansas City. He is averaging 12.9 yards per return, fifth in the league.

Stephen Gostkowski made the Pro Bowl last season and he is having another good year (18 for 21 on field goals). Alex Henery has a string of eight consecutive field goals since his two misses against the 49ers in Week Four. Punter Zoltan Mesko (40.1 net) gives the Patriots an edge although there may not be many punts in this game.

Intangibles
The Eagles played like a desperate, down-to-their-last-chance team last week and defeated the Giants, 17-10, to keep their season alive. The question is will they bring the same hunger and focus to the Linc on Sunday? Remember this is a team that followed a rousing win over Dallas with two clunkers at home against Chicago and Arizona. I do sense the Eagles have rallied in their new role as an underdog and will give a big effort in this game.

On the Patriots side, they seem to have straightened out what was wrong in the back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and the Giants and now they have a clear shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They have a soft schedule with the Colts, Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins and Bills the next five weeks. The Eagles are probably their toughest remaining test.

Prediction
New England has too many playmakers on offense.

Patriots 31, Eagles 27.
E-mail Ray Didinger at viewfromthehall@comcast.net

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