High Noon: Which Flyers Will Survive Yesterday's Waives? Plus, Schenn Sent to Phantoms, Praise for Read

High Noon: Which Flyers Will Survive Yesterday's Waives? Plus, Schenn Sent to Phantoms, Praise for Read

With all the new faces at the Skate Zone this year, it's been a
pretty exciting camp for the Flyers. Amidst massive roster turnover came
some interesting position battles, and a few weeks ago, it became clear
that some good players would not make this team. Some would head to
Glens Falls to at least begin the season playing for the Phantoms, while
others would be gone entirely.

As Thursday's season opener approaches, the regular season roster
picture became clearer with a handful of rather notable moves on
Tuesday. We'll know even more come the noon hour today, when we find out
which of the players the Flyers exposed to waivers were claimed, and
which will stay in the organEYEzation.

So who could be moving? Fourth line center / talented penalty killer
Blair Betts and defensemen Matt Walker and Oskars Bartulis were waived,
and can be claimed by other NHL teams before noon on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Brayden Schenn, the highly touted young forward acquired as
part of the deal for Mike Richards, gets to hang on to the title "best
player not in the NHL" a little longer, as he will begin the season with
the AHL Adirondack Phantoms.

A look at what those moves could mean to the roster below.


Schenn's Falls
First,
the Schenn move, which has little if any controversy or even surprise
to it. His being sent to the Phantoms isn't a demotion so much as it is a
strategic move, perhaps toward a better immediate and long-term on-ice
product, but certainly a better salary cap situation. CapGeek.com points
out
that spending any time—even one day—in the minors this season
knocks Schenn's cap hit from $3.11 million to $1.705 million.
In other words, Schenn could have scored 10 goals and stayed completely
healthy throughout the preseason and he'd be en route to Glens Falls
right now anyway.

How long he stays there, we don't know. But his cap hit is suddenly
much better for the remainder of the season when he does get recalled.
It won't kill Schenn or the Flyers for him to get some more time in the
minors either, both to get an ailing shoulder up to speed and to get
some more pre-NHL seasoning. Of course, it may hurt his odds at winning
the Calder Trophy as the league's top rookie, which betting site
Bodog.com had set as its highest. 

Despite trading away two centers (counting Jeff Carter there because
it was still his natural position) and possibly losing another one
overnight, the Flyers are still pretty deep up the middle. For now, it
looks like they'll be keeping first-round draft pick Sean Couturier on
the NHL roster to start the season. That may change after 10 games, the
point at which he can be returned to his junior team without counting
against the Flyers current cap year.

Gambling on Losing Betts
One player the Flyers may not be able to
yo-yo back after dangling him over the hands of the league's waiver
grabbers is Blair Betts. Despite battling nagging injuries, Betts has
been a stalwart defensive forward for the Flyers, anchoring their fourth
line and penalty killing units. Now, those coveted skills and his
attractive $700k salary are likely headed for another club. 

When the Flyers signed Max Talbot away from the Pittsburgh Penguins
this off-season, the departure of Betts became a possibility. Talbot
kills penalties and can man the fourth line pivot. He's only 27 years
old and has obviously come up big at key playoff moments, so his allure
is understandable. However, Talbot loses more faceoffs than he wins
(48.6% last season), and the faceoff circle isn't a place the Flyers
appeared able to take a step back.

Talbot also costs more than Betts ($1.75 mil per the next five
seasons), and he was a minus player last season to Betts' plus-7 if you
put stock in that stat. We were, perhaps naively, hoping there'd be a
way to keep both players; while Talbot will be asked to fill some of
Betts' previous roles, he's not necessarily an exact fit, perhaps
ideally used as a wing on either the third or fourth line.

However, the Flyers were looking for someone even more versatile
than a fourth-line center who could kill penalties. They wanted someone
who could replace the energy Ian Laperriere brought to the table,
something Dan Carcillo couldn't consistently do (particularly when he
wasn't playing regularly). Talbot may be coming into a firestorm in
Philly in that many fans don't like his contract, think he's a bit
overrated, and now he likely has Betts' shoes to fill.

But, we need to give this some time before coming to our
conclusions. Fourth line centers are often more replaceable than they
seem, as we learned when the Flyers exposed Glen Metropolit to waivers a
few seasons back due to cap constraints. Metro was missed for the rest
of that season, but was replaced by Betts in the next year's camp,
having been let go by the Rangers.

Back to Talbot for a minute. I recall a lot of fans not liking the
Lappy signing because one of the Flyers' big problems the previous
season was taking too many penalties, resulting in too much time on the
kill. Lappy knew his way to the box, but the concern was largely washed out when we saw what a contributor he could be. Now the team is looking for the guy who can replace him, playing
valuable minutes while also serving an agitating role and throwing down
when the situation calls for it, plus chipping on offense here and
there. I'll miss Betts if he gets snatched up, and there's a good chance
he will, but I'm reserving judgment on Talbot and even fostering some
optimism that he can be a key role-player here. We'll revisit that as
the season moves on I'm sure.

In any case, the current penalty killing situation bears monitoring,
as does the defensive role of the forwards at even strength. Richards
was a huge strength in both regards, and Carter was underrated
defensively (not a popular opinion, I know, but he was no sieve in his
own zone). If Betts is gone, Claude Giroux will probably have to play
more PK minutes than he otherwise might have, which doesn't hurt the PK,
but does use some more of our most talented player's nightly ice time
in non-attacking situations. Matt Read and Wayne Simmonds will also see
time on the killing unit, which also lost the talents of Darroll Powe. 

Back End of the Blue Line
While Matt Walker's $1.7mil salary made
him a candidate for a cap relief waiving, the team's recent confidences
in him as reported by Tim Panaccio made it seem like they might hang on
to them. Of course, they could just be trying to draw a suitor to take
that money on. Andreas Lilja is slotted in as the sixth d-man, but
presumably either Oskars Bartulis or Walker will be kept on as the
seventh if one or both clear. We'll wait on commenting further until we
see how the waivers shake out, but Paul Holmgren expressed some degree
of confidence to Panotch that both guys might clear.

Bob McKenzie's Read on Matt Read
Matt Read has earned a spot with
the Flyers with his impressive camp and preseason showings. He's also
earned acknowledgement from one of the most respected hockey voices
around, with TSN's Bob McKenzie picking him to be this year's Calder
Trophy winner
. While I don't see that happening, as these awards usually go to guys
who stand out either in the crease or on the stat sheet, and I don't see
Read racking up quite that many points, it's pretty encouraging to see
McKenzie throw some confidence behind his ability to contribute at the
NHL, and then some.

Plus, two of the new Flyer faces have been mentioned in this post as
possible Calder Trophy winners, and neither of them is the guy the
Flyers got high in the first round of the 2011 draft, who is also
drawing praise.

Some impressive numbers for Joel Embiid's All-Star campaign

Some impressive numbers for Joel Embiid's All-Star campaign

Tonight, the All-Star starters will be announced on TNT. It is unlikely the East's starting five will include Joel Embiid -- he was only third among frontcourt fan voting at last check, and coaches and media will likely go with a safer choice (i.e. one that doesn't rank only eighth on his team in total minutes played) anyway. But I think we're officially at the point where it's absurd to think of JoJo possibly not getting considered at all, so before the reserves are announced a week from tonight, here's some numbers that tell the partial story of Embiid's dominance in his rookie season: 

107.1: The Sixers' overall defensive rating, tenth best in the NBA. 

99.3: The Sixers' defensive rating with Embiid on the court, first-best in the NBA. 

99.7: The Sixers' overall offensive rating, worst in the NBA. 

105.0: The Sixers' offensive rating with Embiid on the court, 15th best in the NBA. 

7.7: Embiid's block percentage, highest in the entire NBA. 

15.4: Embiid's assist percentage, third-highest on the Sixers (behind their two point guards).

10: Embiid's current streak of consecutive games with 20 points or more, longer than any Sixer since Iverson. 

7: Number of games where Embiid has shot more than ten free throws. 

4: Number of games last season where anyone on the Sixers shot more than ten more free throws. 

68: Embiid's (positive) plus-minus for the entire season. 

224: The Sixers' (negative) plus-minus for the entire season. 

42.5: Embiid's defensive FG% at the rim, highest for any center in the league. 

28.2: Embiid's scoring per 36 minutes, seventh best in the NBA. 

1: Number of other rookies who have ever scored at that rate before (Wilt Chamberlain). 

10: Number of wins the Sixers had all of last year. 

12: Number of wins, after last night's season-highlight win over the Raptors, that they have this year with Embiid in the lineup.

Eagles Stay or Go Part 4: Chase Daniel to Dillon Gordon

Eagles Stay or Go Part 4: Chase Daniel to Dillon Gordon

In the fourth of our 12-part offseason series examining the future of the Eagles, Reuben Frank and Dave Zangaro give their opinions on who will be and who won't be on the roster in 2017. We go alphabetically — Part 4 is Daniel to Gordon.

Chase Daniel
Cap hit: $8M

Roob: Carson Wentz’s backup had a heck of a year — completed all his passes, passer rating of 118.7, averaged 16 yards per attempt. Project that over a full season and Chase Daniel is going to Canton. OK, so he threw only one pass. But that’s two straight years Daniel has been perfect. Last year, he was 2 for 2 for the Chiefs. Most importantly, Daniel has a $7 million base salary in 2017, and that makes him the 25th-highest paid quarterback in the NFL in 2017, and the sixth-highest paid Eagle. The numbers are ridiculous, but Daniel is clearly a good influence on Wentz, a valuable mentor. He’s a solid backup, but that contract is just way too lucrative. 

Verdict: STAYS

Dave: I know fans don’t understand why Daniel is getting paid this much money to be a backup who doesn’t ever play, and at times I have trouble figuring it out myself.  But here’s the reason. When Wentz arrives to the facility during the season at 5:15 a.m. and starts watching film, he’s not watching with Doug Pederson or Frank Reich or John DeFilippo. He’s watching it with Daniel. So while it might not make sense to pay a backup quarterback this much money, don’t think of Daniel as a backup quarterback. Think of him as an asset to the franchise quarterback. Then it doesn’t sound quite as bad. 

Verdict: STAYS

Anthony Denham

Roob: The Eagles must like Denham because he had two stints on the practice squad this year and they re-signed him to a futures deal when the season was over. But barring an injury, there just isn’t room on the roster for another tight end.

Verdict: GOES

Dave: Denham is a tight end who was on the Eagles’ practice squad in 2016. Maybe he’d have a shot to make the roster if the Eagles aren’t able to bring back Trey Burton, but I don’t see that happening. They’ll bring him to camp and let him compete and maybe get another year on the practice squad. 

Verdict: GOES

Jon Dorenbos
Cap hit: $1.08M

Roob: Assuming he’s healthy, Dorenbos isn’t going anywhere. Rick Lovato did a nice job filling in at the end of the season, but until Dorenbos decides he wants to pursue magic full-time, there’s a spot for him on this roster.

Verdict: STAYS

Dave: During last year’s training camp, I watched Dorenbos walk along the sideline, shaking hands and kissing babies (not literally). Then I looked on the field and saw his “competition” snapping footballs repeatedly to a goal post. That’s when I realized Dorenbos wasn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And now he has a new contract. He’ll end up playing more games as an Eagle than anyone in the history of the franchise. 

Verdict: STAYS

Zach Ertz
Cap hit: $5.6M

Roob: Even though he had the second-most catches in the entire NFL over the last 10 weeks of the season, a large segment of Eagles fans have decided Ertz is to blame for everything that went wrong with the Eagles this year. Never mind that he got off to a good start on opening day, then suffered a very serious rib injury, then came back after missing just two games, then after getting healthy finished the season with 67 catches for 685 yards and four TDs in the last 10 games. Not the last one or two or three games. The last 10 games. With a full offseason and preseason with Wentz, I fully expect Ertz to finish 2017 well over 1,000 yards. 

Verdict: STAYS

Dave: I don’t understand the Zach Ertz hate. He isn’t Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce. So what? He’s a really good tight end. Now, I understood why some people questioned the non-block play. I was one of them. But look at the numbers. Here’s a list of tight ends who had more receiving yards than Ertz in 2016: Kelce, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph. Not bad company. And some look at his production and say, well, it all came in December. Maybe there will be a year in which his late-season production finally helps the Eagles with a playoff push. And he just signed a new contract, so he’s here for a while. 

Verdict: STAYS

Najee Goode
Unrestricted free agent

Roob: Goode, an unrestricted free agent, is a capable special teamer and emergency backup linebacker, but he would earn $775,000 even on a minimum-wage deal in 2017, and considering the Eagles’ salary cap crunch, they may elect to replace him with a rookie late-round pick or undrafted guy who would earn about $300,000 less. Based on ability, he would stay. But those mid-career veterans with high minimum salaries who don’t play much on offense or defense can be tough to keep around.

Verdict: GOES

Dave: In each of the last two seasons, Goode has managed to be on the team after missing out on the original 53-man roster. Maybe that’s a possibility for this season, but first the Eagles need to re-sign him. It might be time to move on from Goode and find a younger linebacker/special teamer. 

Verdict: GOES

Dillon Gordon
Cap hit: $543M

Roob: Gordon is an intriguing prospect. Like Jason Peters, he was a college tight end who moved to offensive tackle soon after arriving in the NFL. He’s big and strong and athletic, he’s just very new at offensive tackle. The Eagles liked him enough to keep him on the active roster all last year, and I’m guessing they see him as enough of a prospect that they’ll keep him around for at least another year. Especially with so many question marks at offensive tackle.

Verdict: STAYS

Dave: Gordon was on the Eagles’ roster for the entire season and was inactive in all but one week. He was a college tight end who came to Philly and is learning how to play offensive tackle. (Peters once made the same transition.) Gordon is crazy athletic for his size and the Eagles thought enough of him to put him on the active roster instead of risking losing him by placing him on the practice squad. He’s a project, but one worth keeping. 

Verdict: STAYS