One Cardinals beat writer thinks so. Kent Somers with the Arizona Republic blogged about Kevin Kolb's value yesterday, and he concluded a package of picks headlined by a first may be too rich for the Eagles quarterback.
Somers compared Kolb's situation to that of Matt Schaub, which is funny because he too was blocked by Mike Vick at one point in his career. Schaub, a third rounder out of Virginia, showcased the tools to be an NFL quarterback in several relief appearances, and the Texans made him their franchise quarterback in 2007. The price: Houston and Atlanta swapped first round picks (numbers 8 and 10), and the Falcons threw in a pair of second rounders.
What Somers is getting at is that trade could provide a template for any possible Kolb-to-the-Cards deal, and the similarities are certainly there. Two largely unproven quarterbacks who weren't exactly top prospects coming out of college, with no apparent chance to be named the starter ahead of Vick.
It's a shot in the gut, as we've speculated for a long time the Eagles could get at least a first for Kolb. However, there are still several key differences between Schaub in '07 and Kolb present day that lead me to believe they can still get that kind of compensation.
First of all, we can't truly use that trade as a template, because the move in the first round is a big deal. It may only be two spots, but that early in the draft, two spots can be the difference between a Pro Bowler and a Hall of Famer--though Atlanta wound up with DE Jamaal Anderson, a huge bust.
Furthermore, the Falcons had the advantage of doing that deal a month before the draft. The Eagles and Cardinals can't swap first round picks now because this year's draft is already over, and who knows where anybody will finish in 2011. That takes one component of the deal right off the table.
Then there is the comparison between Schaub and Kolb. Granted, nobody is saying Kolb is any kind of sure thing, but his small body of work dwarfs the Texans QB's at that stage of his career. Schaub started two games for the Falcons, went 0-2, and threw 161 total passes. Kolb has seven starts, is 3-4, and two NFC Offensive Player of the Week awards.
Plus, the two have slightly different pedigrees. Schaub was the fifth quarterback taken in '04, and 90th overall. Kolb was the third signal caller off the board in '07, 36 overall. Ultimately, that may mean nothing, but there were greater expectations for Kolb in the NFL.
Then again, Schaub has gone on to develop into one of the better passers in the league, throwing for over 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons, and making the Texans relevant in the process. Maybe Somers is right, and some seconds are about what the Birds can hope for in the exchange.
I still don't think so. That may have been fine for Atlanta and Houston, but there are far more examples where young, franchise-type quarterbacks go for firsts than examples where they go for less. Look at Matt Hasselbeck, Jay Cutler, Brett Favre. Every situation is different, but even with Schaub, firsts were exchanged.
And of course, there are the various reports that at least one team already has a first on the table. It's only a rumor, but one that contradicts the idea the Eagles won't receive at least that.
Why not? If Kolb is an NFL-caliber quarterback and can stay healthy, there's no reason Arizona should be picking in the top five again next year. Is it a risk? Hell yeah. I think Kolb could be a fine quarterback, but I've also seen A.J. Feeley have success in Andy Reid's system.
That's the price you pay though, Mr. Somers. The Cardinals had the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback in the first round, and didn't. That doesn't mean the Eagles should treat them like a charity case, taking less than the perceived value.
>> Setting a trade value for Kevin Kolb [Arizona Republic]