Our resident college basketball junkiesCSN producers Brian Brennan and Sean Kanemake their predictions for this weekend's games involving the City Six teams. Look for 'Fastbreak Friday' on CSNPhilly.com each Friday for the remainder of the season.
No. 25 Harvard (20-2, 6-0 Ivy) at Penn (12-10, 4-1 Ivy) - Friday, 7 p.m.
Dartmouth (4-18, 0-6 Ivy) at Penn (12-10, 4-1 Ivy) - Saturday, 7 p.m.
SK: The Quakers brace for the biggest weekend the program has had since Fran Dunphy packed up and decided to succeed John Chaney at Temple six years ago. A loss last Friday at Yale robbed Penn of any margin for error the rest of the way in the Ivy League. However the Quakers still control their own destiny in terms of winning the league and getting back in the NCAA tournament. If Penn is going to lose one more game and still have an outside shot of getting into a one-game playoff for the Ivy League title, that loss cannot come against No. 25 Harvard. The Crimson is a perfect 6-0 in the league, one game better than the Quakers. Friday night marks the first of two meetings between the teams in the next 15 days. The chances Harvard loses to anyone other than Penn (the Crimson already won at Yale) are slim. So the math is simple -- beat Harvard twice, finish 13-1 and win the league. A second Penn loss, say, at Princeton puts them at 12-2. But those two wins over Harvard would still give the Quakers the tiebreaker.
Now that we've brought the playoff picture into focus, I'd be a fraud not to go with a Penn sweep this weekend. I've been touting the Quakers and Zack Rosen in particular all season. As good as Harvard is (and that's very good, especially defensively where the Crimson are third in the country in scoring defense), Rosen will be the best player on the floor Friday night. The Palestra will be rocking, and I don't see him letting Penn lose. At the very least, I have a ticket to the game and can't wait to find out for myself. Penn keeps its NCAA tournament hopes alive this weekend with a thrilling win over Harvard and a blowout of Ivy League doormat Dartmouth.
Penn 71, Harvard 69Penn 75, Dartmouth 49
BB: Agreed on the easy win over Dartmouth, but I think forecasting a sweep of Harvard is wishful thinking. The Crimson have won the last five meetings with Penn, and this is a better Harvard team this season. Tommy Amaker's squad is doing it with the two D's -- defense and depth. The Crimson held No. 15 Florida State to 41 points and held the same Yale team that beat Penn to 35 points. They don't have an offensive star like Zack Rosen, but instead get their points by committee, with leading scorer Laurent Rivard at just 11.3 points per game.
I'm picking Harvard for two reasons. First, I love the frontcourt duo of 6'7" Kyle Casey and 6'8" Keith Wright. They're the kind of athletes you rarely see in the Ivy League, and Amaker has compared their defensive abilities to that of Kevin Garnett. They average better than 13 rebounds a game between them, and they'll be tough to keep off the glass. The second reason is that they've simply had Rosen's number -- he's averaging 14.0 points and shooting just 36.1 percent in six career games against Harvard and he's turned the ball over 5.2 times per game. I'd love to see Penn get the win and shake up the Ivy League race, but this looks like a Harvard team on a mission. The Crimson know that if they sweep the PennPrinceton road trip this weekend, they'll likely cruise to the Ivy League title. I think Harvard's defense gets it done.
News
Harvard 64, Penn 56Penn 74, Dartmouth 58
Saint Louis (19-5, 9-3 A-10) at La Salle (17-8, 6-4 A-10), Saturday 2 p.m.
SK: This is the time of the season when La Salle fans shrug their shoulders, tell themselves it was fun while it lasted, and prepare for the implosion. Believe me, I've heard it. It's tough to blame them. They've been beaten down by two decades worth of teams that weren't quite good enough and didn't have what it took when the going got tough late in the year. And here the Explorers are, riding a two-game losing streak into Saturday's matchup with surging Saint Louis.
Well La Salle fans, I'm here to tell you -- not this year. The last two losses, by four against Saint Joseph's at the Palestra and on a last-second layup at Richmond, were difficult to swallow but not symbolic of a late-season collapse. This Explorers team is different, and it's been proving it all season. Ramon Galloway, Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Earl Pettis are a resilient bunch. This game will come down to the wire. One on hand you have Saint Louis' stingy defense (ninth in the country allowing 56.9 ppg.). On the other, the fact that no one has beaten La Salle at Tom Gola Arena all season. I'm going with the home-court advantage. The Explorers buck the trend and get a big win to stay right in the mix for an A-10 title.
La Salle 63, Saint Louis 59
BB: We knew the second half of La Salle's Atlantic 10 schedule was tougher than the first, and the Explorers missed a pair of golden opportunities for road wins against Saint Joseph's and Richmond to start off that stretch. Those losses exposed a potentially fatal flaw, and that's La Salle's lack of size inside. St. Joe's pounded the ball inside early and often, and Richmond absolutely killed the Explorers on the glass, out-rebounding them 45-24.
The good news is that Saint Louis isn't particularly big either, so this won't be a mismatch inside. But Rick Majerus' team is having a special season, and with an RPI of 29, has a great chance at getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. I'm not sure how big an advantage the Gola will be in this one. The Billikens are the best team La Salle has hosted this season, and they've already won at Xavier and St. Joe's. But in a game that could very well come down to who makes more threes, I'll take the Explorers. The season could go downhill quickly if they lose this game, and they won't let that happen.
La Salle 68, Saint Louis 65
Hofstra (8-18, 2-12 CAA) at Drexel (20-5, 12-2 CAA) - Saturday, 4 p.m.
SK: You'd think 12 straight wins and an 18-1 record in their last 19 games would buy the Dragons a little breathing room down the stretch. That's far from the case. Drexel is deadlocked with VCU and George Mason atop the CAA standings, with Old Dominion just one game back. The Dragons can ill afford any late season slip-ups in pursuit of the best possible seed for the conference tournament and in turn an NCAA at-large bid should they come up short that week.
No such slip-up is on the horizon at home against middling Hofstra. Bruiser Flint has himself a blossoming star in sophomore point guard Frantz Massenat, who's averaging 18 points and five assists in the last four games. Expect more of the same from Massenat and company Saturday, making it more and more difficult for the NCAA Selection Committee to overlook the Dragons this year.
Drexel 71, Hofstra 58
BB: I said it last week and I'll say it again. Despite the Dragons' 12-game win streak, they're not getting an at-large bid without winning the CAA regular-season title. Drexel's RPI is still just 82, thanks to the 247th ranked strength of schedule. But because of the Final Four runs from VCU and George Mason, you've got to hope that winning the CAA's league title would get the Dragons dancing. They've already beaten co-leaders VCU and Mason, and don't play either again in the regular season, giving them the inside track to the crown with four conference games remaining.
The first of those games comes Saturday afternoon against Hofstra, a rematch of a six-point Drexel win back on Jan. 18. That game was a perfect example of how the Dragons have won games all season, with toughness and defense. With a two-point lead and 17 seconds remaining, Frantz Massenat took a charge. Then on the next Hofstra possession, Massenat blocked a shot and passed ahead to Damion Lee for a dunk to seal the deal. Plays like that are why I think Massenat should be the CAA Player of the Year. He leads Drexel in points, assists and steals, and leads the conference in three-point shooting at 46.7 percent. He'll make sure the rematch with Hofstra won't come down to the wire.
Drexel 68, Hofstra 52
UMass (18-6, 7-3 A-10) at Saint Joseph's (15-10, 5-5 A-10) - Saturday, 7 p.m.
SK: Since going 7-1 in an eight-game stretch over late November and December, the Hawks are 5-7 in their last 12 games. Saint Joseph's failed to use the raucous environment at Hagan Arena to its advantage on Wednesday against Saint Louis, and now comes another shot to do so with UMass in town. The Hawks lost by nine in Amherst last month, and Saturday's matchup is beyond critical if Phil Martelli's team wants to climb back into the A-10 title hunt. There are currently seven teams ahead of Saint Joseph's in the loss column, yet the Hawks are only two games out of second place.
Martelli loves to preach offensive efficiency (see Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, or more recently, Ahmad Nivins). But he hasn't been getting it from his leading men lately. Carl Jones (31 percent shooting in his last nine games) and Langston Galloway (34 percent in his last five). No disrespect to shot-blocker extraordinaire C.J. Aiken or the well-rounded Halil Kanacevic, but the backcourt makes the Hawks go. I have a hunch they'll get it going against a UMass team trying to keep pace with Temple atop the league standings, but the Hawks are a year away from making a serious NCAA tournament push.
Massachusetts 75, Saint Joseph's 69
BB: It goes without saying, but the Hawks have been an incredibly tough team to figure out. Against La Salle last week, Kanacevic looked like one of the best players in the league, with 18 points and 15 boards. He's a unique player, a high-post big man that can really pass and also attacks the glass. But then against Saint Louis, he had just seven points and six turnovers. And that's been the story of the Hawks season, an inconsistency that has to be driving Martelli nuts.
Saturday's game with UMass is going to come down to which backcourt imposes its will. Martelli admitted that Jones and Galloway need to be two of the best players on the floor for the Hawks to win games. The Minutemen counter with Chaz Williams, who averages 15.8 points and 5.8 assists, and Jesse Morgan, who had 24 points in Wednesday's win over St. Bonaventure. UMass is fighting for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, and really needs this win. But I'm going to put my faith in Jones and Galloway and take the Hawks at home.
Saint Joseph's 76, UMass 70
Xavier (16-8, 7-3 A-10) at Temple (18-5, 7-2 A-10) - Saturday, 9 p.m.
SK: A fascinating matchup of the A-10's two signature programs over the last five years. After stumbling in the aftermath of that ugly brawl with Cincinnati in early December, Xavier has steadied itself to go 7-3 in its last 10 games. Temple, meanwhile, has been the model of consistency, winning seven straight and 12 of its last 14. Tu Holloway was the preseason choice for the A-10 Player of the Year award, but that honor is Ramone Moore's to lose now. The silky smooth senior is averaging 18.3 points per game on the season, and has been good for 23.3 ppg in the last four games. Moore was instrumental in digging the Owls out of a big first half hole against George Washington on Wednesday. That deficit was made possible by Khalif Wyatt's benching to start the game after he was late for study hall earlier in the week.
There will be no shortage of top flight guards on the floor Saturday night, and I see Temple's backcourt making enough winning plays to hold off their A-10 rival in an entertaining game. But a question that shouldn't have to be asked -- how many will show up to watch? Just over 4,000 were on hand for the win over George Washington. That's 40 percent of the capacity of the Liacouras Center. That's really an unfortunate number.
Temple is on the verge of breaking into the Top 25, a veteran team that is playing extremely well together under one of the best coaches this city has seen in a long time. If there's a more enjoyable college hoops team to watch than the Owls, I haven't seen it. The attendance will go up for the Xavier game, but let's hope it stays that way for the rest of the season. The Temple program is worthy of an invitation to join the Big East or another top tier conference -- now it's time for the fan base to prove it is as well.
Temple 76, Xavier 70
BB: I couldn't agree more on the attendance. This Temple team deserves to play in front of a packed house. But the atmosphere will undoubtedly be raucous on Saturday night for the showdown with Xavier, in what should be a fascinating contrast of offense versus defense. The Owls have shot better than 50 percent from the field during their seven-game winning streak, while the Musketeers lead the A-10 in field goal defense. Temple's offensive numbers are so good for a number of reasons. They take good shots, and more importantly, they get the right players to take those shots. Moore and Wyatt combined for 33 of the Owls' 56 shots in last Saturday's win over Rhode Island, and I like that.
While Temple's nearly a lock for the NCAA tournament, Xavier really needs to turn it around if it has any shot of living up to its lofty preseason expectations. Holloway is coming on, averaging 18.5 ppg in the last six games after struggling early in conference play. Yet the Musketeers are just 3-3 in those six games, and there's just something missing. A win at the Liacouras Center, where they haven't won since 2004, could be a major springboard as we come down the homestretch of the A-10 season. I don't think Temple lets it happen, though. Maybe an impressive win will finally get the Owls into the Top 25, where they've belonged for a couple of weeks now.
Temple 78, Xavier 66
SK: Since Villanova isn't playing this weekend I leave Wildcats fans with a ray of light in a season filled with dark clouds -- JayVaughn Pinkston, Charles Barkley 2.0.
Last Week
BB: 4-2 (16-6 overall)
SK: 3-3 (16-6 overall)
Brian Brennan and Sean Kane are producers at Comcast SportsNet. E-mail them at bbrennan@comcastsportsnet.com and skane@comcastsportsnet.com.