New FiveThirtyEight website puts pretty decent probability behind big Nova tournament run

New FiveThirtyEight website puts pretty decent probability behind big Nova tournament run

Nate Silver's much hyped FiveThirtyEight.com debuted today following in the Grantland footsteps over at ESPN and they came right out of the gate crunching some interesting numbers in an attempt to predict the NCAA basketball tournament set to tip off this week.

The methodology used is all pretty interesting stuff, combining a number of existing power rankings such as Pomeroy's ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index, but naturally we're interested in the local teams chances of making some noise.

There's good news and bad news for Philadelphia area hoops fans.

Silver's system likes Villanova quite a bit but puts the chances of St. Joe's or Delaware making any real noise at a pretty distant probability.

The likelihood of Villanova getting to the:

Field of 32: 95%

Sweet Sixteen: 64%

Elite Eight: 41%

Final Four: 21%

Championship Game: 9%

WINNING IT ALL: 4%

The likelihood of St. Joe's getting to the:

Field of 32: 33%

Sweet Sixteen: 8%

Elite Eight: 3%

Final Four or Beyond: <1%

The likelihood of Delaware getting to the:

Field of 32: 9%

Sweet Sixteen: 2%

Elite Eight or Beyond: <1%

One of the interesting notes about the East bracket according to their methodology is they like the No. 4 seed Michigan State to have the best chances to advance to the Final Four out of the East at 24% with No. 1 seed Virginia at 23.3% and Villanova right behind them both at 21.1%.

If you're looking for some additional info to help you fill out your brackets, the FiveThirtyEight stuff is certainly informative, but as we all know, you can never predict what kind of madness will actually unfold in March.

 

 

Defense scores twice as Villanova beats Lafayette

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Defense scores twice as Villanova beats Lafayette

EASTON, Pa. -- Tanoh Kpassagnon returned a fumble 25 yards on the first offensive play of the game and Jeff Steeb returned an interception 45 yards to close the scoring and Villanova defeated Lafayette 31-14 on Saturday night.

Aaron Forbes, who ran for 111 yards on 11 carries, scored on a 3-yard run in the third quarter to put the Wildcats (3-1) up 24-14 after the Leopards (1-3) had rallied after falling behind 17-0.

Javon White's 1-yard plunge made it 17-0 for Villanova but Lafayette's Drew Reed hit Yasir Thomas for a 14-yard score just before halftime. Reed connected with Tim Vangelas on a 19-yard score early in the third quarter.

Lafayette finished with four turnovers with Rob Rolle picking off two passes, including one he returned 100 yards for a touchdown that was nullified by a penalty.

Villanova had 378 yards of offense, 238 on the ground while Lafayette had 342, 272 through the air.

Union midfielder Alejandro Bedoya's 1st MLS goal not enough in draw with Toronto FC

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Union midfielder Alejandro Bedoya's 1st MLS goal not enough in draw with Toronto FC

TORONTO -- Justin Morrow scored in the 70th minute and Toronto FC salvaged a point with a 1-1 draw with the Union on Saturday night.

Morrow made a run from his left back position, and midfielder Jonathan Osorio laid the ball off to Morrow for a tight-angle shot. Toronto (13-8-9) had its second straight home tie,

Alejandro Bedoya scored for Philadelphia (11-11-9) in the 25th minute. Bedoya took a pass from Fabian Herbers with his back to the Toronto goal, quickly spun past the Toronto back line and chipped a shot that looped over goalkeeper Clint Irwin.