NHL Conference Finals: Who Will Play for the Cup?

Saturday, May 16, 2009

By Anthony J. SanFilippo and Tim Panaccio
CSNPhilly.com

Damn the Pittsburgh Penguins! Damn Simeon Varlamov!
 
Damn the rest of the Washington Capitals (save Alex Ovechkin) for getting a softball-sized lump in their throats!
 
That despicable excuse for a Game 7, you know the one that was over as soon as Marc-Andre Fleury stoned Ovechkin on a first period breakaway and later was iced by Sidney Crosby scoring a pair of goals as he continues to have a fantastic playoff, cost me a shot at perfection.
 
Even worse, it made Tim Panaccio right! Ugh.
 
I followed up my 8-0 first round with a 3-1 second round, losing only on the Caps. (Yes, it stings. I know this might surprise you, but writers have an ego too.)
 
Sigh, I guess I can take solace in the fact that the two teams I picked to go to the finals are still alive.
 
Meanwhile, Panotch went 4-0 in the second round to improve his 6-2 first round.
 
That means my lead is down to one with just three to go. I'm starting to feel like it's September and I'm the New York Mets.
 
I have to focus much more closely on these Conference Finals to protect my ever-slimming lead. You might not realize what's at stake here.
 
If I finish ahead of Panotch, I'll quietly revel in my triumph, and peacefully enjoy my summer.
 
If Panotch wins, I'll never hear the end of it. He'll text me from his time share in Hilton Head. He'll remind me when I see him on the first day of training camp. He'll even toss it out at random times during the season -- like when I make a quiet prediction in the press box about a game.
 
He'll say, "And you'll be wrong just like you were in the playoffs last year." Then his trademark Doctor Detroit-like snicker will follow and it will eat away at me every time.
 
So, it is with this motivation, with this absolute distaste for the thought of losing to Panotch, that I offer these stone cold lock predictions.

The Picks:
 
Eastern Conference Finals: 4. Pittsburgh vs. 6. Carolina

SanFilippo
There has been no one better than Sidney Crosby in these playoffs. He has single-handedly carried the Penguins back to the Conference Finals. Yet, as great as he's been, the Penguins have been quite fortunate to this point. A lot of bounces have gone their way. They were outplayed in many of the 13 postseason games they've played so far by both the Flyers and Capitals, and yet they're still playing. Marc-Andre Fleury has been just so-so. The Pittsburgh defense was almost non-existent at times against Washington and Evgeni Malkin has shown a propensity to disappear for stretches in the playoffs. Pittsburgh can afford none of this against a grinding team like Carolina. The 'Canes have been really good in the playoffs and have shown great resilience, winning a pair of Game 7's on the road to get this far. Eric Staal is an elite player who will be feuled even more by the opportunity to skate against his brother Jordan. Meanwhile, some former Flyers castoff defensemen have been superb in the playoffs - Joni Pitkanen and Dennis Seidenberg. They'll have to continue to be so against Crosby and Malkin. The one edge Carolina has right now is in goal. Cam Ward has won a Stanley Cup and he's been very good for the Hurricanes in these playoffs. He's a tested goalie and will be the best netminder the Pens have faced yet. It's probably appropriate that the two teams in the East that have been playing the best hockey over the course of the past three months, regardless of seeding, are playing for the right to go to the Finals. It'll be another really good series, but as great as Crosby's been, if he doesn't get any offensive support from his teammates, he won't beat Carolina by himself. Make it the Hurricanes in six.

Panaccio
I don’t think we’ll see a better series than the one we just witnessed between the Penguins and Washington Capitals. Funny thing is, I still think the Flyers could have beaten Washington, Carolina or Boston – but not the Penguins. At least not in the opening round. Carolina has gotten some surprisingly gutty play from Jussi Jokinen – not Olli, but Jussi. He’s the reason the 'Canes got past the Bruins. Cam Ward is a better goalie than Marc-Andre Fleury, but Fleury’s Game 7 save in the opening minutes against Alex Ovechkin illustrates what you need from a goaltender in a big game – a crucial, momentum-turning save. Ward did not win Game 7 for Carolina as much as Boston got sloppy one play late in the game and it cost the Bruins dearly. Pittsburgh’s offensive firepower has been a factor these entire playoffs and will continue to be. Carolina won’t contain Sidney Crosby (12 goals in 13 games) and if Evgeni Malkin can bring some consistency to his game, that’s a 2-0 Pens’ advantage. Rod Brind’Amour looks inconsistent on the defensive end for the 'Canes – a sign of age creeping in? Assuming Sergei Gonchar is back fulltime on the blue line, his presence on the power play is one that Carolina has no answer for. We’ve seen the difference Gonchar has made thus far. There’s plenty of rest days between Games 1 and 2 for Gonchar. Gotta love Jordan Staal going up against big brother Eric, who has a Cup ring in Carolina. From a ratings standpoint, the NHL is pulling for Pittsburgh and Crosby to get a rematch with Detroit in the Stanley Cup Final. Penguins in six.
 
Western Conference Finals: 2. Detroit vs. 4 Chicago

SanFilippo
These Blackhawks sure are fun to watch. They are an exciting team with a lot of skill, even more speed, and some great energy that makes it hard to root against them. If, as a hockey fan, you asked me which of the four remaining teams I'd like to see win the Cup, I'd pick Chicago for those very reasons, and the fact I think it would be great for the league after hockey was dormant in the Windy City for far too long. But, I can't make this prediction as a fan. I need to think like an analyst, and when I do, it doesn't take much for me to see Detroit is the superior team. The thing that impresses me most about the Red Wings is their ability to be relentless. There have been countless games where they don't take their foot off the gas pedal. It never surprises me to see them outshoot an opponent 45-22 or something similar because they have the best collection of two-way forwards in the sport. The Blackhawks took advantage of both Calgary and Vancouver because neither team could skate with them. Detroit can. Not only that, I'm not sure Chicago has defensive answers for the likes of Johan Franzen, Marian Hossa, Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg. It would be nice to see Chicago, but instead we're going to get Detroit ... again. Red Wings in five.

Panaccio  
Alas, this is where that Western freight train known as the young, enthusiastic Blackhawks see their final stop – in Detroit. The Hawks are simply too young. Maybe they handle pressure well because they don’t recognize it when they see it, but there is no way their speed skating attack is going to ruffle the Red Wings. Chris Osgood once again has taken his game to another level. And that’s a key because I don’t feel Nikolai Khabibulin has been, as good as he should be. Chicago has simply scored more goals for him. The Red Wings’ five-man defensive units continue to demonstrate what has made Detroit so dominant the past, two seasons: they own rights to the puck. They simply don’t give it up. Chicago played with the puck more against Vancouver and generated off the rush to score. The Hawks won’t get that chance against Detroit. Ownership will begin and end in the Red Wings zone with them controlling the puck and controlling the game. It’s one thing for Chicago to fall behind consistently against Vancouver. You fall behind 3-0 to Detroit and maybe get lucky, like Anaheim did, to tie a game once. But you won’t win. Johan Franzen got that huge contract right before the playoffs began and he is showing GM Ken Holland why he’s worth $43.5 million over the next 11 years.  Red Wings in six.

How Tim Panaccio sees it:
First round: 6-2
Second round: 4-0 (10-2)
 
How Anthony SanFilippo sees it:
First round: 8-0
Second round:3-1 (11-1)

E-mail Tim Panaccio at tpanaotch@comcast.net

Anthony J. SanFilippo covers the Flyers for the Delaware County Daily Times. For more on the Flyers from Anthony, see his blog, 'In the Room.'

E-mail Anthony J. SanFilippo at AnthonySan37@gmail.com. Follow Anthony on Twitter at http://twitter.com/AnthonySan37