Panaccio & SanFilippo: Stanley Cup Final Predictions

Friday, May 29, 2009

By Anthony J. SanFilippo and Tim Panaccio
CSNPhilly.com

SanFilippo: It's official: The Pittsburgh Penguins are trying to ruin my summer.
 
First, they eliminated the Flyers, which on a personal level translated to a shorter hockey season and therefore less accrued time off in the summer months at my newspaper.
 
Then, they took out the Washington Capitals, ruining my run at perfection in picking the playoffs. It also cost me a bet with my physical therapist (she's from Pittsburgh), which had me wandering around the Springfield HealthPlex waving a "Let's Go Pens" towel with my rehabbing left hand and wrist, much to the chagrin of the Flyers fans employed there.
 
Now, they've swept the Carolina Hurricanes to reach the Stanley Cup finals, drawing me dead even with Comcast hockey pest Tim Panaccio in our predictions for the playoffs at 12-2 with one round to go.

A quick aside: Tim and I were conducting an interview with Danny Briere in Detroit last March, talking about Briere suddenly finding himself on the third line for the Flyers.
 
Near the end of the interview, Panotch suggested Briere skate on a line between the two of us, to which Danny quipped, "That would be a fun line. I'd have a big guy to protect me on my left and a little guy who likes to draw attention to himself by stirring up trouble on my right."
 
It got me thinking at the time that Panaccio would be a classic hockey agitator if he could skate. He'd be right up there with the Matthew Barnabys, Sean Averys and Dale Hunters of the world.
 
Danny – you nailed it!
 
Anyway, back to the predictions...
 
Just so you know, Tim has only tied me and he's already insufferable. The Pens and Hurricanes hadn't even made it through their post-series handshake when an e-mail popped into my inbox proclaiming that he had caught me, and somewhere in the recesses of my brain, I could picture Panotch sitting at his computer desk, sipping a full-bodied merlot and laughing like Dr. Evil.
 
It made me grit my teeth in disgust.
 
But, there is a ray of hope for me. That's because, like bad guys in most comic book adventure movies tend to do, Panotch had his one defining moment of weakness in a later e-mail.
 
He tipped his hand.
 
He had me tied to a pole with one thousand pounds of dynamite piled at my feet. And although he held the match and could have easily blown me into smithereens, he instead decided to reveal his dasterdly plan to me before he ignited the wick.
 
See, he told me he was picking Detroit.
 
Ah ha! He gave me an out!
 
I had no idea what his prognostications were in advance of picking in the first three rounds, but this is different. This gives me a chance to still come out on top and crush the wicked Panaccio empire!
 
It's a risky proposition – especially since I picked Detroit to win the Cup from the very beginning – but it's a chance nonetheless to save myself (and the good readers of this Web site) from hockey writer ego overload.
 
And why not? It's worked before. I smartly abandoned the San Jose Sharks and New Jersey Devils in the opening round despite being firm believers in both teams as Cup finalist possibilities as recently as April Fool's Day.
 
It's not like I don't think Detroit is still the best team in hockey – they are. Their depth is unrivaled. Their puck possession is otherworldly. And, they have more overall talent than the Penguins do – especially these Pens, who I'm still convinced are not as good as last year's team.
 
But Pittsburgh has some mojo working for them right now. Sidney Crosby has been sensational throughout the playoffs. Evgeni Malkin finally woke up halfway through the Caps' series, and has been a force. Their defense has been much better than advertised, and the goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury, while he hasn't been great, has come up big at exactly the right moments.
 
But, perhaps most importantly right now, the Penguins are healthier than the Wings.
 
Detroit has been without Hart Trophy finalist Pavel Datsyuk for the past three games, and surefire Hall of Fame defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom missed Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals with injury.
 
Even if they come back – hey, they're hockey players – they're not going to be 100 percent, which could provide the sliver of an opening the Penguins need to bring about a different result from a year ago.
 
The Finals weren't originally supposed to start until next Saturday, but the league opted to keep the playoffs moving rather than take nine days off first (finally a good decision from the commissioner’s office). However, the Wings would have liked to have that time off to heal. Now they don't get it and have to play the first two games on back-to-back nights in Hockeytown. That favors the Penguins, who are poised to become a dynastic team, probably a lot sooner than a lot of folks around these parts would like.
 
So what's the pick? Six weeks ago I would have gone Detroit in six. And while I still don't doubt the Wings entirely and think they could still take this thing and send Sid, Geno and Flower home to try again next year – much to the delight of Philadelphia hockey fans – I think I'm going to change my mind.
 
The Penguins’ time has come. They're certainly flawed, but they're not playing that way right now. (Reminds me a lot of the Phillies last October). They're brimming with confidence and a lot of times, that's all you need to win a series against a team who is undoubtedly better than you.
 
Or maybe I'm just so hell-bent on beating Panotch right now that I can't even think straight.
 
Either way, make it the Penguins in six.
 
Hey Timmy... Game on.
 
Panaccio: You know what the saddest part of this rematch of last year’s final is, Anthony? It’s that the Penguins are built for the long haul. So are the Detroit Red Wings. Both these teams could conceivably meet, years into the future.

But alas, I fear the result will always be the same: the Red Wings win. It’s not the offense; the Penguins have the better offense and I believe goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has played better than Chris Osgood in these playoffs. The thing is, the Red Wings’ defensive machine shuts everyone down. If Anaheim had played better in its series against Detroit, the Penguins would be facing the Ducks and they would be everyone’s favorite to win the Cup. But if you watched Game 5 of the Chicago-Detroit series, you saw just how much the Wings controlled the puck. Okay, their offense sputtered, but the thing about Red Wings is: they rag and rag the puck, and when opportunity finally appears – even in an instant – they explode for a killer goal. And when Detroit gets a lead, it doesn’t let go.

If it were any other team in the West, the Penguins would win the Cup. They’re better than last year’s version. Problem is, Detroit is better than last year’s version, as well. To win this series, the Pens need a split in the Motor City and a sweep of two games at home.

As much as I like Pittsburgh and the all-around marvelous job Ray Shero, “Son of Fred,” is doing there, I see the Wings’ best players being more dominant. I see role players such as Dan Cleary and Darren Helm having an edge over guys like Tyler Kennedy.

Detroit lacks Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but Pittsburgh lacks Nick Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, who has been superb these playoffs, and Johan Franzen. It pains me to write this because I’d like to see the Cup return to the Eastern Conference. But I don’t. Red Wings in six.
 
The record so far...

Anthony SanFilippo
First round: 8-0
Second round:3-1 (11-1)
Third round: 1-1 (12-2)

Tim Panaccio
First round: 6-2
Second round: 4-0 (10-2)
Third round: 2-0 (12-2)


E-mail Tim Panaccio at tpanotch@comcast.net

E-mail Anthony J. SanFilippo at AnthonySan37@gmail.com